2019 BMW PGA Championship Betting Preview and Predictions
The 2019 BMW PGA Championship will mark the 65th edition of the BMW PGA Championship tournament on the European Tour, annually held 19-22 September at the West Course of Wentworth Club in Virginia Water, Surrey, England.
Founded in 1955 by Professional Golfers’ Association (PGA), it was originally called the British PGA Championship. Since then, the tournament had several different names, up until 2007, when it was officially renamed to BMW PGA Championship, a name it holds up to date.
Because the PGA European Tour has its headquarters at the Wentworth Club, the BMW PGA Championship is regarded as the flagship event on the European Tour and the designated “Premier event” for the purposes of the OWGR, with a minimum of 64 ranking points awarded to the champion. Just like the previous two tournaments, BMW PGA Championship will offer a $7,000,000 prize fund, making it one of the most lucrative money events.
The 2019 BMW PGA Championship tournament is known to be hotly contested event with 10 out of the last 12 editions being decided by two strokes or less. Will the history repeat itself this year is yet to be seen, but if what we saw last year is anything to go by, 2019 BMW PGA Championship will continue with its renown as one of the most exciting events of the year.
Favourites & Players to watch
Jon Rahm – Odds: 11.00
The Irish Open winner will make his Wentworth debut this weekend, which could be a sizeable negative for Jon Rahm. In the last 60 years, only two first-timers won at Wentworth, making it obvious, if Rahm wishes to win here, he would have to be a huge exception to the rule. Seeing how in the last couple of years, the first timers performed well, however, there is a possibility Rahm could reach for the stars here. That being said, the odds offered on him are just not high enough to convince us to back him up.
Paul Casey – Odds: 15.00
Paul Casey will be the third favourite to win at Wentworth, which is fair. Casey won European Open two weeks ago with superb performance, and if he can show anything similar this weekend, we don’t see a reason why Casey can’t win here as well. He is known to hold his form well, which is just another positive for him ahead of BMW PGA Championship. Last year, he finished only 20th, but we have to consider that was his first time playing at the course in five years. All in all, we believe Casey is more than capable of finishing high here and with relatively high odds offered on him, it makes for a solid pick in our eyes.
Tommy Fleetwood – Odds: 23.00
Tommy Fleetwood has put up some very solid results in the recent events, by finishing in the top 16 in five out of his last six events. That record becomes that much more impressive if we mention Fleetwood finished runner-up at Open Championship in July. That being said, Fleetwood has not won a single tournament in almost two years, and considering his record at Wentworth is far from impressive, there are some arguments to be made that won’t change this weekend.
In his career, Fleetwood chased a win at Wentworth seven times, but to no avail. His best result as of today was T6 in 2015, which is solid result on its own, yet it’s the other six results that are not too promising. In 2014, 2016 and 2017, Fleetwood failed to make the cut at Wentworth, whereas he finished T20 in 2018. He might come off as a solid pick at first glance, considering he is without a doubt a world-class player, but taking into consideration his less than impressive results at this course, we would advise against betting on him.
Francesco Molinari – Odds: 26.00
It would be hard to see the last year’s winner, Francesco Molinari, as one of the favourites to win yet again and not only because he won the 2018 BMW PGA Championship, but because he has been fairly successful at Wentworth for years. That being said, last year was the first time he has won at Wentworth. Odds suggest Molinari is not among the favourites, which in one way true, but then again, there is no denying he will do his best to impress here and we believe he has a real shot of finishing deep. Furthermore, both McIlroy and Rahm are not in the best of shape ahead of BMW PGA Championship, making Molinari a very appealing pick.
As we have established, we believe Paul Casey is priced very generously, considering he has won the European Open barely two weeks ago. Casey can make a deep run and with both Rahm and McIlroy in questionable form, we cannot exclude a possibility Casey can win here.
While we talk about winners, Molinari has won here last year and will aim to do it again. He might not be in the best form ahead of BMW PGA Championship, however, there is a reason to believe he can put up a solid run at Wentworth, where he rarely disappoints.
Prediction: Paul Casey to win
Prediction: Francesco Molinari to win
Prediction: Francesco Molinari top 10
Dark horse picks
Luke Donald (201); Donald might not have been in the best of shape in recent years, however, it’s hard to ignore his solid results at this course. Donald finished third here in 2014 and 2008, second in 2010 and won in 2011 and 2012. While it’s been seven years since Donald finished top three, he seemingly likes the course which could work in his favour.
Thomas Pieters (46); Pieters caught our attention, because he has been playing very well last month, when he put up some very solid results. He won at Czech Masters, to which he added T12, T20 and T10 finish at KLM Open, indicating he is in good form ahead of BMW PGA Championship.