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Borussia Dortmund vs Manchester City
When: Wednesday, April 14 – 21:00 CEST
Where: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany
Weather: Partly cloudy, 4 °C
Referee: Carlos Del Cerro
Manchester City head to Signal Iduna Park hoping to keep their score from the first leg intact, knowing that a goal from the hosts will be enough to suffer yet another quarter-final elimination. Holding a 2-1 lead from the first leg could give City a sense of security, however, conceding only once will force them to start making moves, which could result in an exciting night of football.
The hosts need to win to-nil or by at least a two-goal margin to make it into the UCL semi-finals inside 90 minutes. Can the boys in yellow achieve that feat, however, is another question.
Dortmund counting on home-field advantage
Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in four UCL home games. Their UCL home record includes wins against Zenit Saint Petersburg (2-0), Club Brugge (2-0), as well as two draws against Lazio (1-1) and Sevilla (2-2).
Even in their domestic competition, Borussia have done well enough to be the fifth-best home team (7-2-4). That said, there is a reason to be concerned with their recent showings.
On Saturday, Borussia just barely kept themselves in the race for Champions League qualification as they secured a 3-2 victory against Stuttgart. The game has shown both the good and bad sides of this team, with two spectacular goals, and a couple of crucial mistakes in the defensive end.
In their previous Bundesliga fixture, we saw Dortmund drop the ball against Eintracht Frankfurt (1-2), who had their job made easier for them with an own goal from Nico Schulz early into the game.
In Bundesliga, Borussia have conceded 16 goals in 13 home games, and have conceded at least 1.5 goals in 60% of their matches, which is not ideal, granted their potent attack does more than compensate for their mistakes in the back.
Manchester City Rested and Ready
Man City deserve some praise for their win at Ethiad but did not look too good in the first leg. Although they created plenty of chances to end up winning, we expected a bit more from Guardiola’s men.
It’s important to note that we hold City in high regard, so a showing we view as mediocre from them isn’t necessarily bad. Man City are still a team that have won 28 out of their last 29 matches across all competitions and have also won 15 straight away games.
There are definitely a few areas where City could use some polishing, but this is a team that is extremely close to its peak performance. And that’s a scary thing to say about a squad as stacked as they are.
Last time out, Man City lost to Leeds (1-2) in a match that should have never ended the way it did. Not only were Leeds playing with 10 men for the last 45 minutes, City were also undeniably the better team – 71% possession, 7/29 on goal – so we wouldn’t overreact to that result.
What we can take from that match, however, is that Guardiola rested a few key players including Kevin De Bruyne, Rodri, Phil Foden, Ruben Dias, and Ilkay Gündogan.
Borussia Dortmund vs Manchester City Betting Picks
Borussia Dortmund held on well in the first leg, but they don’t come off as a team that will manage to repeat their success tonight. Even though they’re playing at home, Signal Iduna Park is no longer the fortress it was under Thomas Tuchel and Lucien Favre.
Borussia still struggle defensively, which is largely due to their sloppiness and tendency to making crucial mistakes. That said, they have a very potent attack, which could help them balance things out.
The first leg produced three goals, but there could have been a few more, which is what we expect to see here. Having rested his key players, Guardiola likely won’t look to keep the score intact and instead push his players to score, which should open up the game, as Borussia can’t afford to be conceding away goals.
At the same time, Borussia aren’t a team you would expect to score and defend, since they’re way too sloppy on their side f the pitch for that to work. There are many reasons to be excited about this match and there are even more that would suggest we are in for a high-scoring affair.
Prediction: Over 3.5 goals – 2.33 SBO
