The 19th round of England Premier League will see Burnley hosting Everton at Turf Moor, where Burnley won only 2 out of 8 games played this season.
Burnley is currently 18th in the league with 12 points and 3-3-12 record. With 12 points, they are a candidate for relegation, however, a win here would see them climbing to 17th spot if Cardiff losses against Crystal Palace. Looking at Burnley form, they have won only 1 match in the last 5 against Brighton (1:0), but they lost to Crystal Palace (0:2), Liverpool (1:3), Tottenham (1:0) and most recently Arsenal (3:1). With that, Burnley has scored only 3 goals and conceded 9 in the last 5 games, which means they concede almost 2 goals/match on average, but scored only 0.6 goals/match. Looking at the home matches, their performance is not that much better, as they are holding a 1-1-3 record in the last 5 games, in addition, Burnley scored only 4 goals but conceded 10 in the last 5 home matches. In their last match against Arsenal, Burnley was behind 1 goal only 14 minutes in when Aubameyang scored an opener. That was also the only goal in the first half, despite 4 shots on goal from Arsenal who also had a 65% ball possession, Burnley on the other side had only 35% ball possession, 2 goal attempts and 1 shot on goal. At the start of the 2nd half, Aubameyang scored his 2nd goal (48th minute) which put Arsenal in a comfortable lead of 2 goals. Burnley then pushed for a goal and got one in the 63rd minute. At this point, the scoreboard showed 2:1. Despite Burnley efforts to score an equalizer, they failed to do so, as they only had 1 shot on goal out of 5 goal attempts. Instead, it was Arsenal who scored their 3rd goal in the dying moments of the match (90’+1). Final score: 3:1.
The visiting side, Everton are sitting at 11th spot in the league with an overall record of 6-6-6. In their last 5 games, they have not won a single match, instead, they lost 3 and played a draw twice. Everton played a draw against Newcastle (1:1) and Watford (2:2) but lost to Liverpool (1:0), Manchester City (3:1) and most recently to Tottenham (2:6). With that, Everton has scored 6 goals and conceded 13 in the last 5 games. Everton most recent match against Tottenham was a wake-up call for them as they were completely dominated by their opponents. I think it’s safe to say no one expected such a result, especially Everton. The mentioned match saw an opener in the 21st minute, which was scored by Everton, but Tottenham soon responded with a goal of their own in the 27th minute which levelled the match. Not long after Tottenham scored 2 more goals (35th and 42nd minute), which meant they headed into the 2nd half with a comfortable lead of 2 goals (1:3). Looking at the second half, Tottenham scored another goal only 3 minutes after the players stepped on the pitch (48th minute). Everton did respond with a goal of their own in the 51st minute which meant the scoreboard showed 2:4. Of course, the scoring did not stop there. Tottenham went on to score 2 more goals to seal the deal in 61st and 74th minute, which completely sunk Everton ship. The match saw a total of 27 goal attempts (10-17) and 11 shots on goal (3-8). Everton did manage to hold on to the ball 42% of the time but failed to use it as efficiently as the visiting team. Final score: 2:6.
To be fair, Everton is playing well, despite their poor results in their recent games. In away games, Everton is holding a 1-3-4 record with a 1-1-3 in their last 5 games. At this point I must mention, they did play against the top teams in those 5 games and performed relatively good. They defeated Leicester (1:2), lost to Manchester United (2:1), played a draw against Chelsea (0:0), lost to Liverpool by only 1 goal (1:0) and lost to Manchester City (3:1). Now with the hard matches behind them, Everton can start accumulating points once again against mid-table and bottom table teams. Their first opportunity to do so is in the match against Burnley. This match could easily end with Everton winning, as they are playing well, the other way this match could end is with more than 2 goals being scored. Burnley has seen over 2.5 goals in most of their matches and if we were to blindly bet on over in every match they played, we would see a profit. In their last 5 home games, Burnley saw over 2 goals on 3 occasions, mostly due to their poor defence which let in 10 goals in the 5 games. All in all this match should be the one when Everton bounces back from their recent 2:6 defeat against Tottenham. We could bet on Everton to win, but I am a bit concerned about their defence which has not been the best in the last few matches. In that regard, an over 2.5 bet is more suited.
Prediction: Over 2.50 goals
