ENCE v fnatic – ESL One: Road to Rio – Europe Betting Preview and Prediction
ENCE’s abrupt removal of their previous IGL aleksiB who got replaced by the former mousesports star Miikka ‘suNny’ Kemppi sure came back to bite ENCE in the ass. After a series of bad results, it is quite obvious allu is not a proper IGL and they need at least one or two roster moves to fix the situation.
Apart from allu, all of the ENCE players are under the 1.00 HLTV rating across the last three months, albeit they played just a total of 21 maps across eight matches, including five online matches at the ESL Pro League Season 11 Europe. There they won only one match, a 2-1 against NiP (which featured a beatdown on Overpass, 16-4 in favour of NIP). Prior to the match, they lost three against GODSENT, Astralis and Vitality, all with the 1-2 score line.
On a more positive note, ENCE came close to winning against Astralis and were way more competitive than you would expect against Vitality (although Vitality were playing with a new player) and they should have probably beaten GODSENT. As for their opening match, they lost in two straight maps to Team Spirit, who were priced as a slight underdog at around 2.05. While the situation in the ENCE might not look good, they have proven they still play well on some maps and be at least somewhat competitive if the time is right.
It may not seem like ENCE are a solid team due to all the community memes and bad performances they have put up, however, at these odds, it seems to me like ENCE are very underestimated. If Fnatic take this match too lightly, thinking “it’s just ENCE, we will surely beat them without any real preparation”, the lack of preparation might just bite them in the ass.
Fnatic were crowned the ESL Pro League Season 11 Europe champions just ten days ago. They started their EPL campaign with a 1-2 loss against BIG (who were 3.22 underdogs), to which they added a handful of wins, including 2-0 against Complexity, 2-1 against North and 2-1 against forZe. Fnatic were favourites in all these matches so it’s hard to be shocked they won them. Their next defeat came against NaVi with a straight 0-2, 10-16 on Overpass and 11-16 on Dust2. Nonetheless, Fnatic dusted themselves off quickly and went a tear winning against NIP, Faze and Astralis. Unfortunately, Fnatic’s run came to a close against OG 2-1, however, they still finished the Stage 2 Group A at the top with four wins out of five, so the last match was not really important.
Although Fnatic looked very solid in the group stage, their playoffs run was even more impressive. In the final stage of the tournament, Fnatic swept mousesports and Natus Vincere, and in the finals, triumphed over mouz (3-2) for the second time, with a remarkable comeback after being down 1-2 in series, with the Nuke match being the quite a memorable one, 16-1 in favour of Fnatic. It is safe to say Fnatic will be coming into this match with high morale and will most likely think little of ENCE, which could backfire.
After the EPL finals, everyone is expecting Fnatic to sweep ENCE with relative ease, so the general consent is that everyone should bet on Fnatic, which makes the 2.00 odds on ENCE to win a single map a great value bet. I would highly advise you to go against the public here! I am not saying ENCE will win the match, nor am I saying ENCE are a great team, but winning a map should be in their capabilities, especially in an online format. What’s more, brollan was one of the best Krieg players and since the new CS:GO patch made Krieg obsolete, he will have to go back to using M4A4, which is not exactly a big deal, but it might affect him mentally.
Prediction: Fnatic to win 2-1
Betting Pick: ENCE +1.50 Maps, 2.00 at Bet365
In-play prediction: If ENCE win map 1, back Fnatic to win the match