England will play host to Germany on Tuesday, June 29, at Wembley Stadium, hoping to make it past the first round of EURO knockout stage for the first time since 2004. That, however, might be easier said than done, seeing how the Three Lions have historically struggled against the German lineup.
England vs Germany
When: Tuesday, June 29 – 17:00 BST
Where: Wembley Stadium in London, England
Weather: Cloudy, 17°C
Referee: Danny Makkelie (NED)
England enter this match with a massive weight on their shoulders, with the fans and media expecting nothing less than a victory. As a team that has consistently underdelivered in international tournaments, Gareth Southgate’s men are expected to “bring it back home”, and with all of the crucial games played on their home soil, anything less will be a massive disappointment.
There’s no hiding that England struggled to impress during the EURO 2020 group stage, but they have looked improved towards the end of it, which suggests that they should be capable of causing some damage to the shaky Germans.
England’s EURO Woes
England have historically struggled at EURO, seeing how their best placements include two bronze medals from 1968 and 1996. Since their last deep run 25 years ago, England never made it past the quarter-finals and failed to qualify in 2008.
In their last two outings (2012, 2016), the Three Lions made it to the quarter-finals and the last 16, only to get eliminated by Italy and Iceland respectively.
Talking about England’s poor records, Southgate’s men haven’t been very impressive when facing Germany either. In their last five outings – dating back to 2010 – England managed only one win (3-2) in 2016, a draw in 2017 and three losses to go along with it.
Regardless of what that would suggest, it’s fair to say that England field better players this time out. Some may argue that the Three Lions haven’t shown that during the group stage, which is reasonable; however, they looked improved in their clash with the Czech Republic.
England won that match 1-0, albeit played much better football compared to their earlier showings. Much of it had to do with the return of Harry Maguire, who left a solid impression.
Ben Chilwell and Mason Mount will be able to play today and could be joined by Bukayo Sako, who had an excellent performance against the Czech.
Germany’s Weak Backline
Germany finished Group F in second after they edged out Portugal with a better goal difference. Although ending in second in a group of death is worth its praise, it’s not like Germany produced anything remarkable.
They lost their opener against France (0-1), bounced back with a 4-2 victory against Portugal, but struggled to impress against Hungary, who forced them to a 2-2 draw.
As their results suggest, Germany aren’t particularly sturdy in the back, which is definitely something Southgate will look to take full advantage of. Much of their struggles in the defence are due to underwhelming showings from Mats Hummels, who hasn’t had the best tournament.
He struggled to keep up with Hungarian attackers, and considering how much better English strikers are in comparison, it’s easy to speculate that he won’t manage to impress this evening either. An easy fix would be to replace Hummels with another player, however, it’s not like Joachim Low has many other options on the bench.
Given how weak Germany are in the back, their best chance to win is to attack England and work around their strong midfield. The problem is that even Germany’s star players in the front haven’t been playing particularly well either, which includes Leroy Sane, who has yet to make his presence at EURO 2020 known.
England vs Germany Betting Picks
Although both highly stacked teams, it’s undeniable that Southgate is getting much more from his star players than Low. Germany have been struggling to step it up on both sides of the pitch, and while their problems are most noticeable in the back, it’s not like they were very impressive in other areas of the pitch either.
What’s more, this match will be played at Wembley, where England will enjoy full support from their silverware-hungry fans. There is little to suggest that Germany can be as deadly as they were in their previous meetings with England.
Prediction: England -0.50 Asian Handicap (same as England to win) – 2.47 at Betfair
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