FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses – LCS 2020 Summer playoffs
This weekend we will see a clash between the “boring” FlyQuest and the always unpredictable Evil Geniuses, in what will mark a rematch from LCS 2020 Spring lower bracket finals.
The “boring” adjective I have FlyQuest is by no means meant as a negative, but it instead refers to their slow, calculated and systematic approach to games. It may be boring to watch them play since they usually don’t go for flashy plays, but that at least helps them avoid playing with a lot of variance. Evil Geniuses, on the other side, are the polar opposite and are often a hit-or-miss team, which solely relies on the performances of their mid and top laners.
Talking about the unpredictability of Evil Geniuses, they are entering this match with a seven-man roster. Since they decided to bring in Goldenglue and Huni as replacements for Jiizuke and Kumo, they effectively gives a chance to make switched and bring the benched duo back onto the Summoner’s Rift if need be. The option surely is there and perhaps it could benefit them, however, at the same time I don’t expect to see it since EG have played for Goldenglue and Huni for a while so it would make no sense to make changes during the series.
Overall, I’m not too big on Evil Geniuses and while saying they are currently the worst team in the LCS would surely spark a lot of disagreements amongst the LCS fans, I would argue that there is a world where EG are worse than Dignitas and 100T, which theoretically they are.
At the end of the day, EG are 1-4 in their last five (and 3-7 in last 10) which includes losses to Dignitas, 100 Thieves, FlyQuest and TSM, and one win against Golden Guardians, but even in that match, EG’s win came solely due to Goldenglue’s pop-off performance on Azir. That is, as mentioned above, more or less the identity of EG, who usually win solely off a strong performance of either Goldenglue or Huni who solo-carry the game.
Out of the two, at least Goldenglue is looking good in the mid lane, but he’s far from a stand-out performer. Huni, as mentioned is a hit-or-miss and has only really looked good on Gangplank or his signature Rumble pick, however, if you are FlyQuest and are facing a player that so heavily relies on one or two champions, it’s very easy to play around it and that is exactly what I expect from FlyQuest.
Besides the mid and top shenanigans, Evil Geniuses can’t really rely on their jungler Svenskeren either. As a player who won the last season’s MVP award, he is only a shadow of his former self and even that is an understatement. He is averaging the second-lowest KDA out of all junglers (1.9) – excluding those who played less than 10 games this split – has the second-lowest KP% (66.7), and averages -176 GD @15 which is third-worst mark in the league.
FlyQuest, on the other side, arguably have one of, if not THE best junglers in the league in Santorin, who has been playing out of his mind lately. He is a definition of an aggressive and oppressive jungler, who makes every laner sweat and worry about when and from where he will appear in his lane. Unlike Sevenskeren, Santorin has the second-highest KDA in the LCS (6.4), the league’s highest KP% (78.1) and +66 GD @15. What’s more, Santorin has by far the highest First blood participation in the league (61.1%).
Last but not least, we have the bottom lane match-up, where I once more lean more towards FlyQuest rather than Evil Geniuses. Now, I’m not ready to criticize Bang too much as EG’s ADC, but his performances across the last couple of weeks were just not solid. EG usually count on Bang to carry in the mid-late game with his strong team fighting, but we did not see much of that as of late. Another thing that worries me about Bang is the fact that he was only solid on Aphelios (75% win rate), while he has only 16.7% win rate (1-5) on his second-most played champion Ezreal.
Since the meta has shifted away from Aphelios who got nerfed into the ground, it begs the question of what who or how will Bang play? He can still play fasting Senna, but who will then carry in mid game? Huni/Goldenglue..? And we are back at the point of where EG will once more have to rely on the coin-flip players.
Even if we see Bang on Kalista (0% win rate, 0-1) which could be a good choice in theory, he is still facing WildTurtle, who has been looking exceptional since his return to the roster. WildTurtle is currently holding the league’s highest KDA (9.6) out of all ADCs, has the highest KP% (74.8), sixth-highest GD @15 (102) – which is slightly below Bang (132) and the highest First blood rate (50%) out of all players in his position.
To make matters worse for EG, WildTurtle has been very efficient on Ashe (100% win rate, 13.7 KDA) and while Ashe got nerfed with 10.16 patch, it was more a light slap on her wrist rather than a game-changing nerf with the reduced attack speed bonus on her Ranger’s Focus (from 60% to 40% at max rank). What’s more, most other marksmen were hit by the nerfs (directly or indirectly) much harder, making Ashe still a very viable pick.
As to avoid making this too long, I will only briefly mention the macro play of these two sides, where we once more see FlyQuest hold a significant advantage. They’re more efficient in accumulating gold (+294 GD @15) compared to EG (+9 GD @15) have a higher FB% (67% – 56%) and overall have a significantly better objective and vision control.
FlyQuest are a team that is being heavily slept on as they are in my book one of the most stable rosters in the league and the fact that this lineup (with WildTurtle on ADC) lost only to Cloud9 further proves FlyQuest are a real threat for another grand finals appearance.
Clean sweeps in Bo5 or even 3-1 are rare, especially in the upper bracket, as one team has to severely underperform to not win at least one map. However, looking at this matchup, I don’t see how EG can win more than one map and even if they do, it will have to come from a pop-off performance from Huni/Goldenglue. This one should be a clean win for FlyQuest, however, instead of betting on a -2.5 map handicap, I’ll go for a safer option and bet on FlyQuest to win at least 3-1.
Prediction: FlyQuest -1.5 maps – 1.833