Betting-Previews.com brings you a betting preview for the League of Legends European Championship (LEC) 2021 Summer playoffs bout between Fnatic and G2 Esports. The two arch-rivals will clash in the third round of the lower bracket for a 2021 LoL World Championship ticket and a shot at the title.
2021 LEC Summer Playoffs – Round 3 – Fnatic vs G2 Esports
When: Sunday, August 22 at 17:00 CEST
Game: Best-of Five (Bo5)
As if the script was written beforehand, G2 Esports and Fnatic will clash on Sunday, August 22, in the third round of the LEC 2021 Summer Playoffs lower bracket. The match will decide which of the two teams will secure their ticket for the 2021 LoL World Championship and which team will enjoy an extended offseason.
Not only do we have a ticket for LoL Worlds on the line, and one of the biggest rivalries in the esports scene, but also Martin “Rekkles” Larsson meeting with his old teammates in what promises to be one of the most exciting games of the year.
Fnatic did not make it to LoL Worlds only twice (2012, 2016), while G2 Esports never missed out on worlds since 2016 and have not placed worse than top-four across their last three trips. For one of the two sides, this day will be difficult to forget.
Fnatic Have G2’s Number
Fnatic are 2-0 against G2 Esports over the summer season, having beaten their arch-rivals in Week 3 and Week 6 of the regular season. Those two matches happened at the time when Fnatic have been peaking, so you should take those results with a grain of salt.
Regardless, Fnatic have proven that they can defeat G2 in a best-of-one (Bo1), now the question is whether they can do it in a Bo5.
If we compare G2 Esports and Fnatic’s performances over the entire LEC 2021 Summer season, Fnatic have proven to be a more efficient early-game team, but they tend to fall off in the mid-late game. As evident, they have gained massive gold leads at 15 minutes and have averaged the second-best Early-Game Rating (EGR) over the regular season, while G2 usually struggled early on and woke up in the mid-late game.
It’s only fair also to take a look at how Fnatic and G2 did in their matches in the LEC 2021 Summer Playoffs. At this point, it’s important to keep in mind that G2 have played only four maps (one game against MAD Lions), while Fnatic have played 10 across their series against Team Vitality and Misfits Gaming.
G2 Esports Could Have Won against MAD Lions
Fnatic have been a better team for most of the LEC 2021 Summer regular season – excluding their slump in the final weeks of play – however, if we go and compare G2 to Fnatic, we have to put some more weight on their recent showings.
G2 Esports lost to MAD Lions in quite a humiliating fashion. Regardless, we have to acknowledge that they played extremely well in game one and the fact that they had to play MAD Lions, who seem to have (again) found their form just in time to win the whole thing.
As bad as G2’s loss looks on paper, we have to acknowledge how good MAD Lions are. It’s easy to look bad if you’re facing a very good team, so we should take their 1-3 loss with a grain of salt.
Still, there were some obvious weaknesses G2 Esports need to work on. The first was their drafting.
G2 drafted well in game one, picking a composition that is very easy to execute, and they ended up winning the map one with relative ease. It, however, went downhill from there, mainly because G2 Esports were forcing to play around their bot side.
Allowing MAD Lions to pick Twisted Fate in 2/4 games was a mistake, mainly because G2 put Martin “Wunder” Nordahl Hansen on the weak side. He also had to blind pick, leaving MAD Lions a chance to play through İrfan Berk “Armut” Tükek, which obviously didn’t go well.
Still, there was a silver lining, G2 Esports should have won game three, and they would have, had they not blundered it with a foolish fight at the 24-minute mark. Rekkles made a terrible mistake by ulting Marek “Humanoid” Brázda away from his team, and I can confidently say that G2 would have won the map and possibly the series, had not been for that error.
Then there was also some poor positioning at neutral objectives, which definitely hasn’t helped G2 Esports too much, but if we draw a line, G2’s mistakes aren’t that concerning in a way that they can fix them in the little time they have to prepare for today’s match.
Rekkles had a terrible performance on the day, but we must acknowledge that Rasmus “Caps” Borregaard Winther and Marcin “Jankos” Jankowski both played well. Wunder wasn’t in a position where he could do much, while Mihael “Mikyx” Mehle played decently.
Fnatic And Their Questionable Decisions
Fnatic played well enough to win against Vitality and Misfits, although their performances weren’t clean. Similarly to G2, Fnatic play around their bot side, which should benefit them since they have a better bottom lane than G2 Esports.
It might sound like a hot take, but if you compare G2’s bottom lane performance against MAD and how impactful Fnatic’s bottom lane was across their series, you can’t really argue that Elias “Upset” Lipp and Zdravets “Hylissang” Iliev Galabov are weaker.
Even if we look at the teams as a whole, I would prefer Fnatic’s players, who have been playing better than G2 throughout the season; however, their playstyle concerns me.
Fnatic excel in getting ahead early, which sets them up for success, but they tend to make very weird decisions. That was very obvious in their game against Misfits.
Fnatic should have won that game 3-0 or 3-1, but they couldn’t because of that trait. Fnatic will be 5k gold ahead and would have the game in their hands, but then they will decide to dive the opponent, risking giving up the lead for that one kill which wouldn’t increase their chances of winning.
Fnatic are a huge enigma. They can play like the best European LoL team, but they’re not to be trusted due to their crazy style of play.
What Should Happen?
Both teams have weaknesses; however, Fnatic’s are far more obvious and easier to exploit. With that in mind, Fnatic have a clear win condition; speed up the game and force G2 in constant skirmishes, where Fnatic usually do well, whereas G2 should look to slow the game down and take advantage of Fnatic’s blunders.
From what we have seen from these two teams, G2 Esports (1.602 at Pinnacle) look like a more reliable team and should win today. There are way too many what “ifs” to reliably say how this one will go. G2 should win, but I won’t’ be betting on them at 1.602.
Alternatively, Fnatic to claim first turret and drake might be worth a look. They have been more efficient in taking down first objectives (78%, 67%) than G2 (33%, 56%).
Betting Odds are correct as of Sunday, August 22, at 15:10 CEST