Betting-Previews.com returns with another League of Legends betting preview for the second round of lower bracket at LEC 2021 Summer Playoffs. Here is our preview of the game between Fnatic and Misfits Gaming, who will lock horns on Friday, August 20.
2021 LEC Summer Playoffs – Round 2 – Fnatic vs Misfits Gaming
When: Saturday, August 20 at 18:00 CEST
Game: Best-of Five (Bo5)
Fnatic edged past Team Vitality in their opening match of LEC 2021 Summer Playoffs and are now set to face Misfits Gaming, who impressed many with their five-map series against Rogue. The winner of this match will advance into the third round of the lower bracket, where they’ll face off against G2 Esports for the third and final ticket leading into the 2021 LoL World Championship.
Misfits are 2-0 Against Fnatic, But…
Misfits have yet to lose against Fnatic this season (2-0), which should make you feel very bullish about the Bunnies and their chances to come out ahead head. Still, the esports bookmakers have them priced as underdogs at 2.03 (Pinnacle).
Obviously, there is more to it than just the head-to-head record, and we have to address the elephant in the room, which is that Misfits got the luxury of playing Fnatic while they weren’t performing very well. Their first clash happened during the first week of the summer season, while their second happened in the eighth and final week of play.
Those two weeks have one thing in common – both were Fnatic’s least successful weeks of the summer season. With that in mind, we have to take Misfits’ past success with a grain of salt.
It makes far more sense to compare Fnatic and Misfits based on what they have produced throughout the entire season, where the numbers tip in favour of Fnatic.
As noted several times before, Fnatic have – besides Rogue – produced the most impressive performance metrics over the summer season, earning them and Rogue a tag as the teams who are “in the class of their own”.
If we were to divide teams into tiers based on their performances, Rogue and Fnatic would be in the top tier, while MAD Lions and Misfits would sit a spot below. You could argue that G2 deserve to be considered as a team in the second tier, but they’re still below MAD and Misfits – but more on that next time.
|Fnatic||65.9 (2nd)||-4.8 (4th)||1.24 (2nd)|
|Misfits||48.3 (6th)||18.3 (1st)||0.24 (4th)|
If you wish to figure out what Fnatic have been doing to achieve such a high level of success this term, the answer is very simple; Fnatic have figured out how to get themselves in favourable positions very early on, and they work from there. It’s a straightforward concept, but one that only two teams in the league (+Rogue) seem to do well at.
|Fnatic||65.9 (2nd)||-4.8 (4th)||1.24 (2nd)||6.3% (1st)|
|Misfits||48.3 (6th)||18.3 (1st)||0.24 (4th)||1.7% (5th)|
I have spent most of the time here talking about Fnatic, largely because they’re so far up from Misfits in the numbers. Although the Bunnies are not a terrible team and definitely have some bright spots, they’re just not up there with Fnatic by the figures.
But Misfits Almost beat Rogue, While Fnatic Struggled Against Vitality?
If you want to defend Misfits Gaming, you could quickly point out that they forced Rogue to five maps – and would have nearly won, whereas Fnatic had to play a five-map series against Vitality. That’s true, but we have to keep in mind that LEC had a two-week break from the regular season to the playoffs, which allowed teams to prepare themselves for their next opponents,
That obviously works in favour of the outsiders, who had more than enough time to analyse their next opponents develop a plan. That’s highly likely the only reason why all the outsiders outperformed the expectations in the opening week of the playoffs.
If you keep that in mind, it’s not surprising that Misfits won two maps against Rogue. Did Misfits play well in that series? Sure they did, but you shouldn’t overreact to that and use their five-map series against Rogue as the main argument why they are better than Fnatic since “Fnatic surely wouldn’t be able to force Rogue to five maps”.
If we were to compare Misfits and Fnatic lane-by-lane, it wouldn’t be too far from the truth to say that Misfits should enjoy an advantage in the top lane. Shin “HiRit” Tae-min has been simply phenomenal this season and deserves to be considered as one of the best LEC top laners.
However, you can’t count out Adam “Adam” Maanane either. The French rookie has been playing out of his mind and exceeded expectations. He is a very aggressive top laner – which fits in with Fnatic perfectly – and while he has the most solo deaths, he also puts immense pressure on his opponent.
I would still rank HiRit slightly above Adam, but not by much.
As seen in the numbers, HiRit is a more efficient top laner; however, Adam’s low XPD numbers largely have to do with his preferred style of play. He doesn’t care about the minion score, nor will he use some big-brain wave manipulation to gain edges – he instead looks for kills and prefers eliminating his opponent rather than gaining leads with minions. That is very evident in his first blood rate (33% – 1st in the league), which is significantly higher than HiRit’s 11%.
Note: Adam will no longer play remotely and will return on stage for today.
D'ailleurs les amis, en plus du tweet sponsorisé ci-dessous, je suis maintenant négatif au covid, et j'ai le bonheur de vous annoncer que nous jouerons le bo5 contre misfits demain sur scène 🥰— Adam (@Ricadam_lol) August 19, 2021
See you demain 18 heures ❤️
Even though Misfits seem (slightly) stronger in the top lane, Fnatic are just better in all other positions. Anyone who has been following the LEC could attest that Fnatic’s bottom lane is one of the best (if not the best) in the league, while I would have no issues ranking Gabriël “Bwipo” Rau as the third-best jungler in the league. Yasin “Nisqy” Dinçer is another key factor for Fnatic, and while he is not as good as Rasmus “Caps” Borregaard Winther can be when he peaks, you could say that he belongs in the top tier of mid laners in the league.
Fnatic Are Better
Based on what we have seen from these two teams throughout the whole season Fnatic are simply a better team – and you have numbers that would confirm that claim. Obviously, Fnatic have had some iffy showings, but we have to look at a greater picture.
If you are not too confident about Fnatic – due to their weak performances in the final two weeks of play – I wouldn’t blame anyone for skipping this match; however, in my book, there is value in backing Fnatic. They were priced as low as 1.68 just under a week ago, which was a much fairer price.
If in doubt, go back and watch Fnatic’s games from Week 2 – Week 6 and then compare that to Misfits Games. Again, I have to repeat myself and point out that putting too much weight on how these two teams did on the opening day of play isn’t an accurate indication of how well they do today. There is a world where Fnatic have one of their off-games, but 1.806 is a good price to take for a team that has been far better throughout the season.
Fnatic to win at 1.806 (Pinnacle) is a great bet, and I would also add Fnatic with a -1.5 map handicap (2.630 Pinnacle). The real dreamers could also consider a minor position on Fnatic to win with a clean sweep at 5.770 (Pinnacle).
Prediction: Fnatic to win – 1.806 Pinnacle (1.00 unit)
Prediction: Fnatic -1.5 maps – 2.630 (0.5 units)
Betting Odds are correct as of Friday, August 20 at 11:20 CEST