Betting-Previews.com returns with a League of Legends Championship Series (LCS) 2021 Championship lower bracket match between the reigning LCS champions Cloud9 and Golden Guardians, who will cross swords on Friday, August 13 at 15:00 PDT.
2021 LCS Championship – Golden Guardians vs Cloud9
When: Friday, August 13 at 15:00 PDT
Game: Best-of Five (Bo5)
Cloud9 got smoked by Team Liquid in their 2021 LCS Championship opener and lost 1-3. The game was one-sided, which had to do with Liquid’s surprisingly strong performance and Cloud9’s somewhat underwhelming showing. Having dropped down to the lower bracket, Cloud9 can’t afford to lose a single match, otherwise, they will not be travelling to China for the 2021 LoL Worlds Championship.
Statistically Fairly Even
Cloud9 are 4-1 in the head-to-head with Golden Guardians and are generally viewed as a much stronger team. But it might be surprising to hear that C9 and GG are pretty evenly matched from a statistical standpoint.
You can view that as Cloud9 being as bad as Golden Guardians or Golden Guardians being as good as Cloud9. Either way, there isn’t a lot to separate these two sides purely off their performance numbers.
Things don’t look that much different if we compare Cloud9 and Golden Guardians and their neutral objective control. In fact, Golden Guardians boast better Drake and Herald Control numbers, where they rank first and second in the league – in contrast, C9 are ranked fourth and sixth respectively.
|Team/Stat||Drake Control||Herald Control||Baron Control|
|C9||55% (4th)||50% (6th)||55% (4th)|
|GG||59% (1st)||60% (3rd)||39% (9th)|
Purely from those numbers, it’s fair to conclude that Golden Guardians are severely overpriced at 5.50 (Pinnacle). They might lack the individual quality of Cloud9, but the performance numbers could challenge that statement.
You Could Seriously Doubt Cloud9
On paper, Cloud9 are a much better team than Golden Guardians. They are the reigning LCS champions and have a roster comprised of some of the biggest talents in the league. On the other side, Golden Guardians are a young, inexperienced roster with players who are trying to make a name for themselves.
Now that we got that out of the way – we must acknowledge how good Golden Guardians have been playing, and primarily how poorly Cloud9 have looked over the weeks. Even if we ignore C9’s collapse against Team Liquid, it’s very hard to be excited about them.
As mentioned before, Cloud9 have been improving, but this “improvement process” is taking way too long, and we’re not getting any good results from them. While you must respect Cloud9’s high ceiling, something clearly isn’t clicking.
Cloud9 NEED to win here. They’ve invested millions of dollars in buying Luka “Perkz” Perković and field a roster of players who aren’t exactly cheap yet are only one loss away from missing out on the LoL World Championship for the second year in a row.
The pressure will be massive, and I wouldn’t be surprised if C9 can’t handle it and collapse. Golden Guardians are an entirely different story – no one expects them to win, which creates a scenario where we have a team that will enter the match lose and calm, and C9, who will be extremely tense and nervous.
What’s more, Cloud9 are coming off a humiliating loss against Team Liquid, which can’t help their morale one bit.
Last but not least, we have to show some respect to Golden Guardians. They might not be championship material, but this is not a bad team – in fact, their performance metrics are some of the highest in the league, yet they are still consistently undervalued by the bookmakers.
Cloud9 Could Choke
In a perfect world, Cloud9 stomp Golden Guardians 3-0 and both teams part ways with the result everyone expects to see. Even the LoL community expects C9’s redemption win here, but I’m going against that and will say that this won’t be a 3-0.
Golden Guardians are priced as high as 1.628 (Pinnacle) with a +2.5 map handicap, which seems a bit high. Not only do they have extra prep time and film advantage over Cloud9, but C9 are inconsistent enough to lose one map against GG in a Bo5. You could even make a solid case for a bet on GG with a +1.5 map handicap at 3.03 (Pinnacle), which is again a very high price.
There is a solid chance that Cloud9 prove me wrong and completely smash the series, so you have to keep that in mind when betting on this match. Still, due to the reasons mentioned above and the very generous price on the underdogs, it’s hard to pass on backing Golden Guardians to cause some chaos tonight.
Over 3.5 maps is priced at 1.684 (Pinnacle), so it should be considered as an alternative bet to GG +2.5 maps. As much as I would like to see it, I don’t believe Cloud9 lose this match 0-3 (19.00 at Pinnacle).
- Prediction: Over 3.5 maps – 1.684 Pinnacle (1 unit)
- Prediction: Golden Guardians +1.5 maps – 3.02 Pinnacle (0.5 units)
Betting Odds are correct as of Friday, August 13 at 14:20 CEST