Inter Milan v Borussia Dortmund – Champions League Betting Preview and Prediction
Arguably one of the most exciting groups in the Champions League, Group F is back for round three fixtures and in the spirit of the group, it will once more serve us with a highly entertaining fixture. This time featuring Inter Milan and Borussia Dortmund, who will lock horns on Wednesday, October 23 at San Siro in Italy.
Inter eyeing their first three points
Inter Milan are entering round three with a slightly underwhelming 0-1-1 record next to their name, which they earned with a 1:1 draw against Slavia Prague in round one and a close 2:1 defeat against Barcelona in Spain. Looking back at Conte’s side fixture against the Czech outfit, it’s hard to praise the Italians too much. It was a fixture everyone expected, and to some degree even demanded Inter to win, however, the Czech champions had other plans. It was an entertaining match with plenty of scoring opportunities, with Slavia playing very well throughout. In fact, the visitors were even the first team to score and they could’ve easily won the match, had Barella not scored a 90’+2 goal to make it 1:1. It’s hard to say whether it was Inter’s poor display or Slavia’s impressive performance that contributed to that draw, however, it’s safe to say 1:1 is the justified result.
In round two Inter clashed with Barcelona, which, unlike the first one, was expected to be a fairly one-sided match in favour of the Spanish juggernauts. But even those expectations fell into the water, seeing how Conte’s men played very good football and even looked as the stronger side. That said, after the opening goal in the third minute, which got Inter into a 0:1 lead, Conte decided to defend the result with deep defence, which backfired badly. Barcelona scored two in the second half with the help of Suarez (58′ and 84′) to walk away with all three points. It was an unfortunate result for Inter, yet it would be fair to blame Conte’s decision to defend (too) deep.
As far as Inter’s performance in the league go, since their last UCL fixture, Conte’s side lost to Juventus (1:2) and played a close match against Sassuolo (3:4). The worrying part here is that Inter conceded four goals in the last two fixtures. And while conceding a goal against Juventus is not that “big of a deal”, it’s the fact that Inter conceded three against Sassuolo that makes us doubt their defence and readiness for Borussia.
Borussia Dortmund looking to continue their run
Borussia Dortmund will enter round three of UCL group stage with a 1-1-0 record and four points next to their name. In round one, the German side played a stalemate against Barcelona at home soil (0:0), to which they added a 0:2 win against Slavia Prague in the Czech Republic.
Looking back at their clash with the Spanish giants, Borussia Dortmund played well. In fact, they not only played well, but we would go on to say Borussia played much better compared to the visitors. Barcelona had most of the possession on that night (61%), which is not surprising, considering they are Barcelona after all, however, they failed to do much with the ball. The visitors shot the ball 1/7 which is just poor execution on their part. Borussia on the other side shot 4/14 with barely 39% ball possession, but even they failed to score a single goal. It’s worth noting Reus missed a crucial penalty in 57th minute, which would turn the tides of the match in their favour. All in all, we can confidently say Dortmund were the better team on that night.
In game two, of the group stage, Borussia Dortmund defeated Slavia Prague on the Czech soil. The fixture looked fairly close, but it was the Germans, who executed their shots far better. Slavia shot the ball 7/17, whereas Dortmund produced a 5/10. That said, it was the Germans who scored twice, whereas the home side failed to do the same.
The results put up so far suggests Dortmund can be very active in the offensive end, and a quick look at their domestic league performance proves just that. As it stands now, Dortmund have 20 goals to their name, which is second most to Bayern Munich, who have 22.
Verdict & Prediction
Dortmund will travel to Italy with an impressive run, which sees them unbeaten in the last seven fixtures. While there were some “iffy” results, seeing how Dortmund drew with Eintracht Frankfurt (2:2), Werder Bremen (2:2) and Freiburg (2:2), we have to consider, the start of 2019/20 season of Bundesliga proved to be a complete mess, with everyone beating everyone and even top teams dropping points against teams they shouldn’t. What exactly is the reason behind that is anyone’s guess, but we won’t go and investigate that here and rather focus in the UCL fixture.
Borussia will be without Alcacer, which is expected to harm their offensive strength, and we can agree his absence will be noticed. That said, Lucien Favre has more than enough talented strikers at his disposal to fill the void left by the 26-year-old Spaniard. Reus and Schmelzer will also miss this match. On the other side, GK Burki, who got injured during the weekend, is expected to return to the team, so that’s a big plus for Borussia. Jadon Sancho and Mario Gotze are in the team. While there are several absentees in Borussia, Inter are not in a much better position. The Nerazzurri have Sanchez and D’Ambrosio side-lined, whereas Sensi remains questionable.
All things considered, Borussia look to be better prepared for this fixture. They are missing two important players, yet they have shown much more in recent fixtures and have enough depth to cover the holes. Inter on the other side have their own injury problems on top of their questionable display against Sassuolo. We will side with the visitors here and DNB bet seem to be the perfect answer for this fixture.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund +0.00 Asian Handicap
Odds: 2.36 SBOBET