Introduction to Premium Membership & 2021 Coverage

We don’t hunt for winners here. We look for value!

If you decide to join, I do not promise you immense wealth, nor will it be a smooth ride – betting does not work like that, you have to know that. Most of all, you have to be ready to overcome variance, which is a bitch that will hit us hard at times, but you have to stay on the course! Always!

We will have days when we’ll be incredibly lucky, there will be days when luck won’t be on our side, and then there will be days when we will get stuck at +/-5 units, and that’s how variance works. However, I believe we have the edge over the market, which will help us make it out on top in the long term. If things start going sour, don’t overbet, this can make everything exponentially worse. Just keep with the plan.

We are firm believers in data modeling, but numbers don’t always show an accurate picture and can be deceiving. That’s why an eye test is an essential component of our approach. We suggest only bets where we believe we have an edge over the market.

We hunt for value, missed, underappreciated, or overlooked things, and weird angles. The same principle can be applied to all other types of investments – crypto, stocks, bonds, collectibles,…

Don’t let this be your only investment – diversify! Let’s not kid ourselves, we could go bust, and we aren’t afraid to admit that. Diversify your investments, buy crypto, collect Magic cards, invest in bonds, index funds… Spreading out your investments is the way to go, don’t just buy one goose and hope it will lay a golden egg. Most of all, think long-term. Wealth is not something you’ll get overnight, nor is it guaranteed. We’re not selling you a pipe dream here – sports betting is difficult, but hopefully, we can make it a little bit easier for you.

It takes a different mindset to what you usually see on Twitter, Reddit or other platforms, and the sooner you realize that, the better. Buy books, educate yourself, always have a Plan B, and don’t risk money you can’t afford to lose.

Nobody can know the future, and no one can tell you a sure winner- those who tell you otherwise either have a DeLorean in their garage or are simply lying to you. We don’t know what will happen in the next sports match, but we can make an educated guess based on probability and risk/reward. That’s how we operate. Most people don’t get that, and that’s fine. Betting is not for everyone – everyone has their own thing.

If you believe that Pinnacle lines are always a near-perfect representation of the actual probability, you are wrong. At the start of the CS:GO »Online Era«, Pinnacle had no clue what they were doing – it was a literal gold mine for anyone with half a brain. However, they improved the odds, and the market is more efficient, but you get the point.

Stay as far away from Reddit/Betting forums as possible. The hivemind culture won’t make you any money. But on the other side, it can be exploitable if you know what you are doing.

English is not my first language, so if something comes off crude or unreadable, fire me an email, and we can chat.

Now that the ramblings of a mad man are over, let’s take a more relaxed approach and take a look at the things we expect to cover here at betting-previews.com.

2021 Coverage

The 2020 betting season has ended, and the sports and esports world is still suffering from COVID-19-related struggles. Regardless, we have ended the season in the green, which is a positive, even though we had higher goals. For both the old and new members, this should serve as a guideline of what to expect when betting with us throughout 2021. If you have any questions, hit us up on Skype or via email.

Soccer

No major changes for 2021, apart from some staking adjustments in the UK profile for the next season of the Premier League (and probably a lot less bets at higher prices). You can also expect a few more bets in the Asian Soccer profile and a lot more MLS bets for the upcoming season (we skipped most of the 2020 season due to obvious reasons).

We will continue to cover all major leagues (EPL, MLS, LaLiga, Serie A…), as well as an occasional fixture from lower leagues if we locate a bet that meets our criteria.
This past season was not as successful as we had hoped, and while we can partially blame our results on the unstable circumstances brought by the COVID-19, some tweaks have been made to the models to improve our performance.

Cycling

Cycling will continue as usual in 2021 with predictions for Tour de France. We might also send out tips for other races, but nothing is set in stone as of yet.

Darts & Snooker

Darts and snooker will continue as usual with emphasis on the outright markets and match bets. We have to note that with outright bets, it is essential that you don’t just take the first bet at Bet365, but instead search around (PP, William Hill and exchanges like Smarkets and Matchbook) for better prices. Please, it really makes a difference in the end.

When betting EW bets, we advise you to check the EW terms as some bookies might offer you a better % with more places. Frankly, this rule can and should be used for almost all sports we cover, since every 0.01 matters in the long run!

Horse racing

No changes to Horse Racing. The main focus will remain on UK races.

Golf

Golf coverage will resume in 2021. We didn’t post many tips in 2020, but we will regularly cover PGA throughout the 2021 season. We had an amazing start to the season with a couple of winners and near misses, and hopefully, we continue on an upwards trajectory.

Winter Sports

We only did a couple of races last season but we are planning on increasing our coverage for 2021 with all of the Ladies alpine skiing races, a few men’s races, and bigger ski jumping events.

Tennis

We have revamped our tennis model for the 2021 season. Our main focus will be on WTA and maybe some ATP tournaments if time will permit.

US Sports

We did not cover NCAAF in 2020, largely due to bad results in 2019, which made it obvious we need to revamp our model and take a different approach, same with NBA. I don’t think any of these two sports will be back for the 2021/2022 season, but we will see. NFL will continue as usual.

Counter-Strike: Global Offensive

CS:GO is looking to return to LAN (23.10 with the PGL Major Stockholm 2021, possibly even sooner), which is great news for us as we feel more comfortable with our ratings when the games are not played online. As soon as things return to normal, you can expect an increased number of bets for premium users.

We will also ramp up our production of the CS:GO content on the site, where you can expect free picks and previews almost daily.

League of Legends

The European and North American LoL leagues are set to begin in a couple of weeks, and we will continue covering both in 2021. While some predictions will be posted free on our website, the best bets will be made available only at Betmarkets (and on our premium section) to make sure all of our users get the same odds as us.

Betting on the first tower will be mostly done automatically via the BetMarkets platform as the markets are small, and even a 300 EUR bet can make odds drop drastically.

We have ended the 2020 season in profit, which we are quite happy with, considering LoL – much like CS:GO – went through a transition to online play, which has affected our ratings. There is currently no news about a possible return to LAN in 2021 outside of the season-culminating LoL World Championship.

The regional leagues aren’t expected to return to LAN play until 2022.

Valorant

With the rise of a new tactical FPS title Valorant, you might be wondering whether we will start covering it as well, and we might once CS:GO dies. This was supposed to be a joke as this was meant to be written months ago, but looking at the CSGO scene right now, it doesn’t look good.

Anyway, we will look for opportunities to bet on some bigger VALORANT tournaments as soon as we get a better understanding of the game and gather more data. However, there are no guarantees, especially in the first half of 2021.

I have made some money betting on Valorant, but it was likely just due to good luck and my own experience with how the bookmakers price CS:GO matches during the online era – if that makes sense. I don’t think the same rating system I use for CS:GO would work in Valorant, and while these are somewhat similar games, Valorant is a class-based shooter, so perhaps a Rainbow Six Siege rating system would work better with it.

Age of Empires

Age of Empires is one of the video games we would regularly cover if any reputable bookmaker would actually offer odds. Unfortunately, the only website that has AoE odds currently are the Russian angels 1xbet.

Regardless, the AoE competitive scene has had quite an impressive growth in 2020/2021, and if AoE IV (to be released in late 2021) proves to be a success, we fully expect its competitive scene to grow and reach the status of a “big” esports title. But then again, I saw the early gameplay trailers, and I have to say that I am not really impressed.

I have no idea what they are doing. just create a StarCraft II copy with swords and bows, and you will have a good game. But hey, what do I know? I am not a dev who actually knows his playerbase. It all feels like a mobile game that would cater to all players, but at the same time cater to no one.

Don’t be hyped for this game, I sense a disappointment. I guess we RTS fans will just have to wait for the infamous Blizard to release StarCraft III in hopes of having a thriving esports title, but the way they treated StarCraft II at the end, I wouldn’t get my hopes up.

If a miracle happens and the game is actually good, we already have plans to release an app/website that will contain complete statistics, player ratings, VODs and more.

2021 Summer Schedule

Obviously, we will cover as much of Copa America and Euro2020 as possible. League of Legends season starts at the start of June (LCS – 4.6, LEC – 11.6). We will ramp up CSGO content production with at least one article per day.

We will also do our best to cover as much of the Olympics as possible, but please don’t expect us to bet on Archery as no one that I work with has any idea about the sport. MLS, Brazilian Serie A will also be posted for both free and premium members, so you don’t have to be a premium member to get something from our site, WTA included.

Premium Sports we no longer cover

  • NASCAR: no significant interest from subscribers to continue. We haven’t really covered anything publicly, but it will return to the free section soon.
  • MMA: positive results over four years (8% ROI). We will still cover some “bigger” matches for free on our website.
  • Overwatch League: a little over 15% ROI over more than 350 bets, but we don’t see any future in this game as it’s slowly losing interest amongst players and organisations. There is still money to be made for those willing to invest time, but it is just not viable for me personally.
  • NCAAB: 122 bets, +8.96 Units, 7,1% ROI, 51,6% win rate.
  • WNBA: +0.71 Units (9 bets).
  • Eurovision: A one-time thing, small loss (4 bets, 50% win rate, -0.76 units), we might send more bets in the future, but don’t expect any extensive coverage.
  • Dota 2: Only one Major tournament covered, a little over 1 unit of loss overall.
  • CoD League: Not viable for us – Although the league’s production has improved, the league as a whole is way too volatile with weekly roster changes and questionable competitive integrity due to server problems. CDL is returning to LAN for the final stretch of the 2021 season, so we might revisit this title in the future.

Free Betting Previews

We have expanded our free betting service with daily betting picks on our site. We plan on continue offering daily picks and preview for NASCAR, F1, LoL, CS:GO, soccer, tennis, MMA, and more.

Multiples

Contrary to popular belief, multiples are not a particularly bad approach to betting, and they’re definitely not placed by only mugs. The value of a bet doesn’t magically disappear when you put two value bets together, but, of course, the variance goes up, so keep that in mind!

I’m not trying to convince you to go all-in with multiples, but they can provide a nice mix of entrainment and profit (some of my biggest wins have come from hitting horse racing yankees). If you are set on following this kind of bets, an account with the likes of Bet365 is almost a must. The more soft bookmakers you have access to, the better.

Recommended Bookmakers

A betting broker like Asianconnect88 or Sportmarket along with Betfair and Matchbook accounts is highly recommended to get the best out of this service. Accounts with bookmakers like Bet365, Unibet, Betway… are nice to have but not necessary. More about recommended bookmakers will be available directly at the sports/tipster profile.

Getting the best odds

If you’re looking to get the max out of this service, you won’t be able to do it without using Oddsportal and Oddschecker. For many of you, it should be obvious, but we have to remember everyone to be careful which bet types you are using for your bets since some are basically the same thing (+0.50 AH and Double Chance, +0.00 AH and DNB), but with different odds. If you need help with the basics and things like bankroll management, let me know, and I will hit you up with some good books on the topic.

Pricing

Considering the number of sports we cover, along with a short betting preview for almost every LoL LEC and LCS match (they were all posted for free on the site during the 2021 Spring season), the price of 50 EUR is more than generous.

We will adjust the pricing in about a month or two, when we will hide some of the previews behind the paywall, and with more leagues starting, the price will increase. Quick promo: if you want to lock in your price of 50 EUR per month, subscribe now and we will keep you at the price for as many months as you wish.

We’re not setting these prices to make a lot of money, but it’s primarily a way for us to share the cost of operating a betting business with our members. By subscribing, you can get a share of all our combined expertise for a fraction of a fee- a win-win situation.

Do you offer refunds?

No. We work hard to provide tips and previews, which come at a price. If a month doesn’t end well or if we don’t cover as many games, subscriptions might get extended for free. We didn’t really make a lot of money from this site as it is not the main source of income for any of the involved parties. This was initially set up as a way to help pay for the expensive data in exchange for our thoughts and bets.

Website Updates & New Features

We have no major updates planned for the site apart from occasional bug fixes. We have some »maybe« features in the »maybe bucket« such as the ability to browse historical esports odds and couple of other small things, but there’s not enough time for all that just now. Maybe in the near future.

So, we are at the end now. You can see that there will be plenty of content available for both free and premium members, so make sure you stick around. If you have any questions, feel free to contact us at info@betting previews.com

Betting Previews