Italy Serie A – Round 4 Match Previews and Betting Predictions
Serie A, the top tier of Italian football enters its round four of 2019/20 season this Friday, September 19 with a fixture between Cagliari and Genoa, followed by nine more fixtures that will take place throughout the weekend.
Current standings after three rounds of Serie A show Inter leading the pact as the only team so far that holds onto a perfect 3-0-0 score and an impressive +6 goal difference, with seven goals scored and only one conceded. Trailing behind we have Bologna and Juventus, each with seven points and a four-way tie for the third place between Napoli, Atalanta, Torino and AC Milan who all hold onto six points. Seeing how Serie A is barely three rounds in, the results so far do not indicate much, yet they do set the pace of the teams looking to finish the season in the top four and claim the highly sought after tickets for UEFA Champions League.
In round four, Serie A will serve us with a handful of exciting fixtures, most notable of which is the Saturday’s derby della Madonnina featuring two of the biggest city rivals in the football history. Inter and AC Milan.
Inter v AC Milan (Saturday, September 21)
Inter Milan vs AC Milan is a derby that never fails to amaze on the pitch as well as in the stands. That being said, it’s been Inter Milan who were the dominant side in recent years, as they are the only team that won della Madonnina in last five meetings.
Last time the two city rivals met was in March, 2019, when AC Milan suffered a painful 2:3 defeat which ultimately cost them a spot in the top four and a spot in the UCL this year. It’s safe to say AC Milan have some unfinished business with Inter, but for them to teach Inter “a lesson”, they will need to be on top of their game, considering Inter are looking very strong this term.
With new additions in the team and a new coach in Antonio Conte, Inter do give off a vibe as a team that can finish in the top four, and if all the stars align maybe even push Juventus for the title. That while being a long shot is still something Conte will want to see from his men. All in all, Inter should be the favourite here. Milan, while on a two-game winning streak did not look too sharp in their matches so far. They did win against Verona last week, but failed to impress overall, considering Verona had to play with only 10 men and still managed to keep the match within one goal.
We expect history to repeat itself at San Siro this weekend, meaning Inter should walk away with all three points.
Prediction: Inter Milan to win
Cagliari v Genoa (Friday, September 20)
Cagliari started their 2019/20 campaign with poor performances in the opening two fixtures, where they lost 0:1 against Brescia, followed by a 1:2 defeat against inter. On the bright side, Cagliari won last week against Parma (3:1) to secure their first three points of the season and are now looking to double their points against Genoa.
Genoa on the other side drew their season opener against Roma (3:3), won against Fiorentina (2:1) and lost to Atlanta (1:2) last weekend to accumulate a total of four points, three fixtures deep into the season. They will travel to Sardegna Arena hungry for a win, which would help them get back on the track. Genoa will fancy their chances against Cagliari, who will await them with a weakened squad. Cargno, Farago and Pavoletti are all injured for the hosts, with Mattiello and Nainggolan both questionable. That being said, Cagliari were missing both star players, Nainggolan and Pavoletti last week and still won 3:1.
This is a fixture that can go either way, which is why we will avoid backing either side for this preview, although we do have a premium bet on Cagliari +0.00 AH, as it is a great value bet at the current odds. Instead, we will go for the Over 2.50 goals here. Both sides have shown they can score goals as easy as they can concede them. Genoa scored three against Roma in an away game in the opening fixture, whereas Cagliari impressed with three goals last week. That being said both teams were also on the receiving end, with Cagliari conceding four so far, and Genoa conceding six in their three fixtures. It’s also worth noting four out of five last meetings between the two sides ended in at least two goals, three of which saw at least three goals being scored. There is no reason for this match to be a low scoring one.
Prediction: Over 2.50 goals
Udinese v Brescia (Saturday, September 21)
This fixture does come off as a close one, featuring two teams that share the same 1-0-2 record so far into the season.
Udinese started off their 2019/20 campaign with a solid 1:0 win over AC Milan, but failed to find the right recipe for success for their fixture against Parma (1:3) and Inter (1:0) last week. Seeing a team holding onto a 1-0-2 record would give off a vibe they are not faring too well in the league, which would in most cases be true, but in this case, it’s safe to say Udinese are a much stronger team to what their record suggests. Looking at their fixture against Parma, it’s still a mystery how Udinese failed to win. They were without a doubt the better side, but somehow failed to find the back of the net more than once.
With 17 goal attempts and 12 shots on goal, it’s a miracle Udinese finished with only one goal to say the least. Last weeks’ fixture against inter, was the complete opposite story, only this time it’s safe to say Udinese impressed everyone. Despite being one man down since 35th minute, they conceded only once and even got a few chances of their own, so I would not put too much weight on that loss, but look at it as a solid performance from Bianconeri.
Brescia on the other side played well against Bologna last week, at least as far as their scoring is concerned. It was an exciting fixture that ended with seven goals (3:4), two of which were scored by Brescia’s Alfredo Donnarumma, who is currently the second-best goal scorer of the league with three goals to his name. While showing impressive goal scoring ability last week, we do not believe Brescia will have an easy time scoring goals here.
Udinese have proven themselves with their solid defence against Inter, and if 10 men managed to stop Conte’s men from scoring more than once, it would be hard to imagine Brescia will do any better.
The two sides have not met since 2011 when the fixture ended in a scoreless draw (0:0). While we cannot compare them based on their h2h results, we can at least check their performance so far into the season, and if we draw the line, it’s Udinese who come off as a stronger side. They are in our eyes underestimated heading into this match, due to being on a two-games losing streak. That being said, they have a solid chance of breaking the spell and claim their second win of the season this Saturday.
Prediction: Udinese to win
Prediction: Under 2.50 goals