League of Legends – LCS Spring Week 6 – Day 1

FlyQuest vs Cloud9
Saturday, February 29 – 14:00 PST

An interesting match, but not so much because we might see Cloud9 lose their first fixture of the split, but rather because we will once more see the undisputed best LCS team show off what they are capable off.

The betting odds on this match show there is a clear gap between the two sides and that’s completely fair. Although Cloud9 are the league frontrunners and FlyQuest the runners-up, there is much more to that one spot gap that what meets the eye. FlyQuest have been very inconsistent with their performances, and although they have won seven out of 10 played, there were a couple of games that were a bit too close for comfort, which suggests FlyQuest might not be one of the top three teams in the league.

When it comes to predicting this match, it is not so much a question whether Cloud9 can win; but rather, with what margin. The 8.5 kills line seems a bit high here, considering FlyQuest can hold their weight and should put up a solid fight, which is why an over 22.5 kills bet seems far more suited. Cloud9 on average secure 16 kills per game, while FlyQuest on average end their games with 13 kills.

A complete stomp from Cloud9 is not entirely impossible, but very unlikely, as FlyQuest are entering this match in great form, having won all of their last four matches.

Prediction: Over 22.5 kills – 1.854 at Pinnacle

 

Team Liquid vs Team SoloMid
Saturday, February 29 – 15:00 PST

Team Liquid went from the undisputed top dogs of the LCS to a bottom-tier team with their 4-6 record five weeks into the Spring Split. The team as a whole is performing extremely poorly and while they field some of the best individuals in the world, it’s clear there are some chemistry issues. What’s more, Team Liquid will play this match without their star ADC and arguably best member of the team – Yiliang “Doublelift” Peng due to illness, making their chances to triumph even slimmer.

Team SoloMid have had a slow start of the split, but as predicted, they have started to improve and are now sitting comfortably at third place in the league. Last week, they played well and bested both 100 Thieves and Evil Geniuses, where they showed a lot of quality and stability. The improvement is obvious, however, their true test will come this Saturday, when they take on the reigning LCS champions.

Team Liquid are priced at 2.04 to win here, which seems fair as they should be considered as the underdogs here. TSM have been steadily improving and although they still have a lot more to prove, they hold an advantage over Team Liquid due to their better form, more organized playstyle and much stronger bottom lane. Side with TSM here to deliver another blow to the struggling Team Liquid.

Prediction: Team SoloMid to win – 1.819 at Pinnacle

 

Golden Guardians vs Immortals
Saturday, February 29 – 16:00 PST

Golden Guardians entered Week 5 of Spring Split on a three-game win streak, which they earned against Team Liquid, Counter Logic Gaming and Dignitas, yet failed to translate the momentum into their games, as they dropped two matches against FlyQuest and 100 Thieves. Although they looked somewhat solid in the previous week, Golden Guardians have proven once more they are a very volatile team.

Most of their issues are due to individual mistakes. The members of Golden Guardians tend to die alone far too often, which is at this level of play a rookie mistake that can and will cost you a win. Although GG tend to start strong and earn a lead early one, they lost it all due those mistakes, which mixed with their poor drafts, prevents them to close out their games.

Immortals are entering Week 6 with a three-game losing streak, which is not a promising sign. They lost to Evil Geniuses in Week 4 to which they added two more defeats against Dignitas and Cloud9 in Week 5. The team as a whole is mediocre and should finish at the mid-table by the end of the split. A lot of the team’s success will come down to their mid laner Jérémy “Eika” Valdenaire, who have yet to show up this split and until he steps up for his team, Immortals will struggle.

Neither team showed enough for us to believe they can produce a clean win this Saturday, which is why an outright bet might be a complete coin flip. On the other side, the total kills provide with a great betting opportunity.

Pinnacle offers a very generous 1.98 on over 20.5 kills, which seems like the best bet here. Golden Guardians tend to start their games strong, which means we could see plenty of kills in the early game from them, however, their tendency to drop off in mid-game should allow Immortals to pocket a few kills of their own. 21 kills in total seem easily reachable, as it’s very unlikely either Golden Guardians or Immortals will close out the game quickly.

Prediction: Over 20.5 kills – 1.98 at Pinnacle

 

100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses
Saturday, February 29 – 17:00 PST

Evil Genuises are entering this bout as heavy favorites (1.591 at Pinnacle), which severely overrates them as they are an extremely inconsistent team with their performances. In their first match of Week 5, where Evil Geniuses defeated Team Liquid, they looked very solid but got completely smashed at the hands of Team SoloMid. Sometimes it seems like EG are fielding completely different teams each game they play, which is a major issue they need to address.

100 Thieves on the other side are much more consistent. They are entering Week 6 with a 1-3 record in their last two weeks, where they lost to Dignitas, FlyQuest and Team SoloMid, but managed to stomp Golden Guardians on the final day to keep their boat afloat.

Predicting this one is hard, as you never know what version of Evil Genuises we will see, which suggests an upset win from 100 Thieves is a possibility and at 2.20 on Pinnacle, they might be worth a punt as a longshot bet. Other than that, the over 21.5 kills seems like the best bet here. While the teams average just over 9 kills per game so far this split, we can expect both sides to approach this game more aggressively as they will both look to pocket this crucial win.

It’s also worth noting that 100 Thieves average 12.1 deaths per game, while Evil Genuises on average see 11.1 deaths in their fixtures. Expect a fast-paced and exciting match between the two mid-table teams and at least 22 kills on the board.

Prediction: Over 21.5 kills – 1.925 at Pinnacle
Longshot: 100 Thieves to win – 2.20 at Pinnacle

 

Best Bet: Golden Guardians vs Immortals: Over 20.5 kills – 1.98 at Pinnacle