SK Gaming vs Excel
SK Gaming are putting up impressive performances this split, which earned them a 3-1 record ahead of their final match of LEC Summer Week 2. The main actors in SK’s success are mid laner ZaZee and ADC Crownshot, who proved they can stack up with the best this Friday when they took down Misfits’ Febiven and Kobbe.
Excel, on the other side, continue to struggle with their performances. As talked before this team does not have the needed quality to compete with the best LEC teams and even some of the worst for that matter. Patrik and Tore struggle to make anything happen in the bot lane and Special… well he’s nothing special.
What Excel have going for them, however, is their solid idea of how to approach the game. Excel took the first tower against all teams they faced, excluding Rogue. Excel, however, tend to fall apart as the game progresses as they still don’t have a firm grasp of how to approach team fights.
SK Gaming have improved significantly over the off-season and looking at how solid they looked like in their match against Misfits, they are set to defeat Excel, who don’t have the needed individual quality to compete with SK. Nevertheless, Excel strong macro play should be enough to make this match longer than expected.
Prediction: Over 33 minutes – 1.73
Misfits vs Schalke 04
Besides their win over OG and narrow loss to Fnatic, Misfits have not shown anything this split and if they can’t win here, I will start to believe this team will likely miss out on the playoffs. Misfits don’t necessarily lack individual quality, but they suffer from a severe lack of any synergy and it’s obvious that once pressured, they tend to fall apart.
Schalke, on the other side, look like the worst team in the league, but they’re not as bad as it may seem. This squad is very resilient and while they can have their moments of greatness, Schalke often fall apart and lose. On Friday, we got to see Neon and DreamS make their debuts and they looked fairly solid. In fact, they have shown more compared to Innaxe and Nukes and while they had to face Mikyx and Perkz, DreamS and Neon held their own.
The problem, however, is that Schalke don’t have a jungler who will be able to stop Kobbe from getting fed and carry the game. Misfits tend to struggle against teams that pressure the bottom lane and Schalke aren’t a team that are capable of that. Furthermore, DreamS and Neon, while solid players don’t seem like they can stack up against Kobbe and Doss.
Misfits are underrated because of their poor record, but keep in mind they lost only to only teams that either got off to a strong start of the season or are on a hot streak (SK).
Prediction: Misfits Gaming – 5.5 kills – 1.70
Vitality vs MAD Lions
Vitality got off to a strong start of the season, but their true colors showed this Friday when they got stomped by Rogue. This team is just not as good as they looked like in Week 1 and I will be surprised to seem them finish anywhere above the eighth place by the time season ends.
I must give it to Vitality, however, they play like a solid unit and have a good sense on how to approach games, but that doesn’t help you against MAD who play by their own rules. Instead of following the meta, MAD tend to craft their own strategy that goes completely against how teams “should play the games”, which makes it extremely hard to play against them – as seen in their match against Fnatic. On top of that, MAD have some of the most talented individuals in their team, especially their bottom lane, who should have no issues against Comp and Labrov – both of whom did not leave a good impression against Rogue.
Prediction: MAD Lions -6.5 kills – 1.925 – Best Bet
G2 Esports vs Rogue
A true test for Rogue will come this weekend when they face off against G2, who bounced back from their losses against OG and Vitality with a win over Schalke. However, their win was very scrappy and not as one-sided as it should be, considering G2 are the reigning LEC champions and Schalke.. well they’re not.
Comparing G2 and Rogue, both have strong individual players and solid macro play. While G2 are on paper a level above Rogue, their recent form does not inspire much confidence here.
We expect G2 to show a bit more in this match and come out ahead, but at the same time, it likely won’t be a straightforward win for them. Rogue are on a hot streak and the fact that this team does not have a weak player suggests this will be a close match throughout. Based on their match against Schalke, G2 still tend to have their iffy moments, which suggests Rogue will manage to pick up at least 10 kills.
Prediction: Rogue over 10.5 kills – 1.884
Origen vs Fnatic
The match of the week will see Fnatic clash with Origen in what promises to provide us with a match everyone has been waiting for. Origen got off to a very shaky start of the season with losses against SK Gaming and Misfits and while they took down G2 I would not praise them too much for that feat since G2 were struggling with their performances at the time. This Friday, we got to see OG stomp Excel, which was not all too shocking. Upset was the main actor in OG’s win, dealing 39.9% of his team’s damage while receiving only 25% of the team’s gold. Nukeduck was also fairly solid with 23.9% damage and 23.6% gold distribution.
Fnatic, on the other side, dropped the ball against MAD Lions not necessarily because they played poorly, but because Fnatic were not prepared for MAD Lions’ unorthodox draft. Additionally, I just don’t get why Rekkles is forced to play Soraka. While Soraka ADC has its place in certain matches, Rekkles is just far too valuable on a marksman for his team to force him to play a more supportive role.
Both teams have exceptional players but in terms of overall strategy and approach to the game Fnatic have a clear edge. They’re one of the most disciplined teams in the league and their game knowledge is far above everyone else. Both teams play their game smart and are not as aggressive as some other LEC rosters. Both OG and Fnatic saw on average about 20 kills per game so far this split, albeit they faced weak teams or those who are in a slump so that number would have been lower had Origen and Fnatic played tougher opponents.
Expect a close bout that will eventually be decided based on the team’s macro play instead of small skirmishes.
Prediction: Under 22.5 kills – 1.826