SK Gaming vs Excel Esports
SK Gaming are coming off a 2-0 week where they defeated Vitality and Schalke 04, which now sits them comfortably above the playoffs line with a 6-5 record. Excel, on the other side, dropped both of their games last week against Rogue and MAD Lions, albeit we have to consider MAD and Rogue are currently two of the top teams in the league.
Another thing worth noting is that Excel did not play particularly bad against Rogue, seeing how they were in the lead for most of the early stages of the game and we can’t criticise them too much for their eventual loss since Rogue managed to out draft them with Aphelios going into Tahm, Trundle and Camille.
Given SK’s 2-0 week, they are priced as favorites coming into this week, but quite frankly they’re slightly overvalued. Excel have seen similar success against Vitality and S04 earlier into the season as SK last week, whereas SK lost to MAD and Rogue in a similar fashion.
Both teams share solid objective control this split since both have the very good coaching staff, and what’s more, both tend to see above 20 kills per game. SK’s games are a bit bloodier with 24.2 average kills per game from their last five, whereas Excel on average saw 22.6 kills per game in their bouts. Last time out Excel won this bout 18-11 with 11-4 in towers and +8k gold lead. Last split, the two sides split wins 1-1.
As mentioned, SK seem a bit overrated at the provided odds and while they have performed well last week (44.1% M-lead/ 1.9% M-deficit) compared to Excel (2.5% M-lead/ 36.6% M-deficit), we have to go back to the fact SK faced weaker teams.
Excel averaged 11.5 kills in their last six and 10.1 deaths, whereas SK picked up on average 11.8 kills in their last six and gave up 11 deaths. This proves Excel are improving compared to their split record of 8.9 kills and 11.5 deaths per game, while SK are a bit more careless compared to their split record of 11.6 kills per game and 10.6 deaths per game.
Prediction: Excel over 9.5 kills – 1.862
Vitality vs Origen
Quite frankly, there is only one way this game can end and it’s not looking too good for Vitality. Origen are entering Week 6 after their best week of the season as they managed to take down Misfits and G2 Esports in fairly convincing fashion. Additionally, OG averaged an impressive 72.5% M-lead and only 1.6% M-deficit.
Clearly, the addition of Jactroll improved this team immensely and it’s obvious that his shot-calling is exactly what this team needed to not only be relevant in the LEC but push for a high finish. Since OG added Jactroll, they have averaged 15 kills per game and gave up only four deaths/game. Of course, we have only two games to look at, but there is no denying OG are looking much better.
As for Vitality, they are looking progressively worse as the season goes on. They still have occasional flashes of greatness but they lack any real stability to convince us they are a proper top-six team.
Statistically, Origen are the third-best team in KDA across the split (1.47), while Vitality are third-worst (0.78). OG average 11.4 kills and 7.7 deaths per game, while Vitality average 9.9 kills and 12.6 deaths per game. This translates to 22.5 average kills per game on Vitality’s side and 19.1 on Origen’s side.
Their relatively high number of kills is not entirely shocking given that both teams tend to play slightly longer games so it’s safe to say we are in for another bloody match this time out. Having said that, Origen’s improvement with Jactroll saw them give up only 4 deaths/game, so betting on over 20.5 seems a bit off, since Origen will have to do all the work to reach the line. With that in mind, the -5.5 kills bet on Origen makes much more sense.
Prediction: Origen -5.5 kills – 1.806 – Best Bet
G2 Esports vs Schalke 04
What we have here is a clash between two teams who have produced statistically two of the worst performances last week and even though G2 are miles ahead of Schalke 04 in terms of individual quality, their performances as of late are disastrous.
Last week G2 produced their worst week yet with a 2.2% M-Lead and incredibly high 58.5% M-deficit, whereas S04 produced 1.9% M-lead and 42.1% M-deficit. In short, S04 statistically had better (or better-said less-bad) week.
Across the last five games, G2 on average saw 26.6 kills in their games, while S04 saw 22. The record for the last 10 shows slightly lower numbers on the side of G2 (23.5 kills) and S04 (20.4), which is more or less the same record these two sides produced throughout the whole split (23.8 – 19.6).
G2 looked exceptionally bad throughout the last two weeks and while it’s true other top LEC teams have improved, it’s clear G2 are not nearly as dominant as they once were. They managed only three kills against Origen and got completely crushed against MAD Lions (7-16). Schalke are not in a much better position since they managed only four kills against both Rogue and SK, whereas they gave up 18 and 20 kills respectively.
I’m not too convinced with G2 this split, but they’re still significantly stronger than Schalke, who even if they get an early lead will struggle to compete with G2’s superior late-game strength and team fighting.
Nevertheless, G2 are making way too many mistakes in their games and until we see some improvement, we will believe Schalke should at least capitalize on those errors and pick up a handful of kills.
Prediction: Schalke 04 over 6.5 kills 1.78
Misfits vs Rogue
Rogue have claimed the LEC throne and are currently looking like one of the best teams in Europe. Having said that, despite their 2-0 week, they have had one of the worst weeks of the split by their standards. As a team that tends to average high M-lead, Rogue managed only 27.3% which puts them behind Misfits, SK, MAD and Origen.
In other words, Rogue’s wins were not as dominant as they usually are and anyone watching their games can agree Rogue looked a bit fatigued last week. Misfits, on the other side, have suffered yet another humiliating defeat against Fnatic, who somehow managed to win the game where they were over 7k gold behind. After such a loss, we have to ask ourselves how did Misfits take that loss and how much did it affect their morale.
Even though Misfits are struggling with closing out their games, they are also one of the most aggressive teams in the league. With Kobbe on Kalista, they managed to stomp MAD Lions in Week 4 which speaks a lot about their early-game strength but it also shows that Misfits can only win if they can snowball their early lead and close out games quickly.
Rogue are quite the opposite in a sense that they play a bit slower and focus more on late game where they tend to outshine their opponents as seen in both of their last two games (against Excel and S04) were Rogue were close with their opponents in gold lead for the first half of the game, but took off when the match entered the later stages.
Throughout their last five games, Rogue saw on average 18.8 kills whereas Misfits saw 24. Rogue are also the second-highest ranked team in kills per game (13.6) and lowest in deaths per game (7.0), whereas, Misfits are seventh-highest in kills per game (10.6) and fifth lowest in deaths per game (11.5). Across the last four games the numbers show 11.25 KPG and 13.5 DPG on the side of Misfits and 14 KPM and 5.75 DPG on the side of Rogue.
Rogue are very efficient in not giving up unnecessary deaths due to their slow and organized playstyle and since Misfits showed a lot of struggles closing out games, we can expect Rogue to come out ahead with at least six kills to spare.
Prediction: Rogue -5.5 kills 1.875
Fnatic vs MAD Lions
The fact of the matter is that Fnatic are not doing well and even that would be an understatement. They have had one of the worst weeks of the split last week and while they went 2-0, their performances deserved nothing more than 0-2 record. They took down Misfits despite being over 7k gold behind to which they added a close and not convincing win against Vitality.
MAD Lions, on the other hand, managed to take down G2 Esports and Excel in a fairly convincing fashion. They averaged 66.9% M-Lead and only 0.7% M-deficit, which clearly shows they have a firm grip on their games from minute one.
Looking at Fnatic’s playstyle they lack the coordination and tend to make silly mistakes such as leaving their members alone to get picked up by teams who know how to move together. Unfortunately for Fnatic, MAD Lions are the definition of a team that can and will move together. A four-man dive top or bottom side before the five-minute mark is nothing unusual from the side of MAD and I’m not sure Fnatic are playing at the level to respond to that.
All in all, Fnatic are in shambles and their 2-0 record should not be viewed as a massive success. You might see people praising them for their comeback against Misfits, but you have to ask yourself how did Fnatic find themselves in such a situation, to begin with? This one should be a straight-forward win for MAD who are looking better and better each week.
Prediction: MAD Lions -4.5 kills – 1.819
