Vitality vs Rogue
Friday, March 6 – 18:00 CET
Week 7 of LEC Spring Split will kick off with a clash between Vitality and Rogue, which is expected to be a very one-sided affair that should end in Rogue’s favour. Although Rogue are without a doubt the stronger side in this bout, Vitality are not a complete pushover.
Vitality are still one of the bottom three teams in the league, yet they are slowly improving and we would even make a bold statement they might compete for a playoffs spot in the Summer if they can continue growing at this pace. Last week, Vitality lost to MAD Lions and G2 Esports, however, it’s worth noting that they managed to keep MAD Lions on their toes for most of the early game.
The question for this match is not so much whether Rogue can win, but rather if Vitality are capable of causing any damage. Vitality priced at 1.934 for +8.5 kills handicap, however, would like to avoid this bet solely due to Rogue’s powerful laning phase. Instead, it’s the over 21.5 kills that looks far more appealing.
Vitality can hold their own in the early game, but fall off in the mid-late, when they tend to die too often and clearly lack a solid macro play strategy to close out their games. Nonetheless, the early game pressure from Vitality should be enough to make this game interesting and push the total kills count to at least 22. Pinnacle has over 21.5 kills priced at 2.00, which is in our books the best bet for this fixture.
Prediction: Over 21.5 kills – 2.00 at Pinnacle
Schalke 04 vs MAD Lions
Friday, March 6 – 19:00 CET
As far as Schalke 04’s performance this season is concerned, there are not a lot of positive things to say. With a 2-10 record, they are more or less guaranteed to not make it into the playoffs. That said, there has been a visible improvement in the team, as they seemingly found their footing since the departure of Konstantinos “FORG1VEN” Tzortziou. That is not to say the Greek ADC legend was playing poorly, as there were other factors that went into it, but that is a topic for another discussion.
Anyhow, Schalke lost both of their fixtures in Week 6 against Origen and Fnatic, which were expected results, considering they played two top European teams. It’s worth noting, however, that Schalke looked fairly solid against Origen, where they had a realistic chance of winning, but still managed to find a way to drop the ball. Nonetheless, they are improving at a drastic pace, and no one should be surprised if they manage to defeat MAD Lions this Friday.
Pinnacle has Schalke priced at 3.53 to defeat MAD Lions, which severely underestimated the German squad. Although MAD Lions looked fairly strong so far this season, they left a lot to be desired in Week 6 when they struggled against Vitality and got completely stomped by Excel. It might be a longshot bet, but backing Schalke 04 to produce an upset win here at the provided odds is a bet we can’t ignore.
Other than that, over 23.5 kills line seems like a solid pick as well. Schalke have nothing to lose and they play like that – their aggressive playstyle can take many teams by surprise and should set up a fast tempo of this match, which is why seeing a total of 24 kills across both teams seems very likely.
Prediction: Schalke 04 to win – 3.53 at Pinnacle
Prediction: Over 23.5 kills – 1.862 at Pinnacle
SK Gaming vs Fnatic
Friday, March 6 – 20:00 CET
SK Gaming and Fnatic will lock horns in the third fixture of the day which could possibly be one of the fastest fixtures of the 2020 LEC Spring Split. SK Gaming have been performing incredibly poorly and it seems like they’re getting progressively worse. Fnatic on the other side are improving and there are even arguments to be made they are currently the best team in Europe.
As much as we would like to see an exciting and close fixture, this one will be anything but. The kills handicap line is set at 10.5, which seems a bit too high for our liking. It’s entirely possible Fnatic can trash SK and come out ahead with 11 kills to spare, but at the current volatile state of the league, we would like to avoid betting on such a huge margin. Instead, it’s the Under 24.5 kills bet that looks far more appealing.
If there won’t be any surprises, Fnatic should close out this match fairly quickly which should prevent the total kill count from getting out of hands. Our best guess is that this match will end in about 25 minutes with no more than 20 kills on the table. A bet of under 20.5 kills (2.84 at Pinnacle) might also be worth a shot, but for the sake of playing it safe, we will predict this match will not go over 24 kills.
Prediction: Under 24.5 kills – 1.909 at Pinnacle
Excel Esports vs Misfits
Friday, March 6 – 21:00 CET
Excel are slowly improving and their triumph over MAD Lions last week was a massive win for the team in their playoffs run. Much of their success was due to their strong draft, and we can’t praise Son “Mickey” Young-min enough for what he has shown with his mid lane Tristana pick. The only problem with Excel is that failed to show up against stronger teams, which in our book ranks them at around seventh place in the league, far above the likes of Vitality, Schalke and SK Gaming, but just not quite as high as Rogue, MAD Lions and Misfits.
Nonetheless, they have the potential to pocket a playoffs spot and their chance to establish themselves as a serious contender for a top-six finish will come this Friday when Excel take on Misfits, who already defeated them in Week 2 of Spring Split.
Excel are priced at 2.52 to produce an upset win, which is quite generous, yet not enough for us to consider picking them here. Instead, we will look at the over 22.5 kills line, which seems a bit low. Excel on average produce 11.8 kills and die on average 13.8 times in their matches, while Misfits tend to secure at least 13 kills and die on average nine times.
Although it’s hard to expect Excel’s individual quality to earn them a win, it’s their superior draft which should give them the needed edge to go toe-to-toe with Misfits. Expect a close bout with at least 23 kills on the board.
Prediction: Over 22.5 kills – 1.806 at Pinnacle
Origen vs G2 Esports
Friday, March 6 – 22:00 CET
LEC saved the best for last, as Origen take on G2 esports in the final match of the day. Both sides have had their ups and downs, yet it was G2 Esports who produced quite a few more iffy performances. That said, they will need to show up this week, as they face off against Origen and Fnatic, two teams that they need to defeat to reclaim the throne as LEC frontrunners.
G2’s last couple of weeks were rather lackluster and while they completely decimated both SK Gaming and Vitality last week, we can’t forget they lost to Schalke and MAD Lions in the final match of Week 5. Does that mean they’re a bad team? Well not exactly. They’re still easily the top team in Europe due to the individual quality of their players.
That said, Origen are not a pushover in that department either. Although they might lack the elite-level quality of G2, Origen showed far more consistency over last couple of weeks, which suggests they might be able to produce an upset win or at very least keep this bout close.
Pinnacle has over 27.5 kills priced at 1.84, which is the best bet to take here. While backing Origen at +5.5 kills (2.04 at Pinnacle) might be very appealing, we wouldn’t like to bet against G2 Esports, especially not in a match of such importance.
Prediction: Over 27.5 kills – 1.84 at Pinnacle
Best Bet: Schalke 04 to win – 3.53 at Pinnacle
