MAD Lions vs SK Gaming
Friday, March 13 – 18:00 CET
There really is not a lot to be said about this match in terms which side has a better chance of winning, as bookmakers did the job for us. MAD Lions are priced at 1.191 on Pinnacle which seems fair considering they have been very good when it comes to defeating weaker teams. While they looked a bit shaky in their clash against Schalke last week, MAD Lions still edged out a win.
So far this season, SK Gaming failed to show anything. After some initial victories, they started to crumble and are currently on an eight-game losing streak and the fact that they lost to the likes of Vitality and Schalke only goes to prove they will have little to no chance of upsetting MAD Lions. It is worth noting, however, SK Gaming have statistically a stronger early game compared to Lions, but besides that, MAD Lions are the superior side overall.
A handicap of -7.5 kills on MAD Lions is priced at 1.83, which seems like the best bet to make here, as there is nothing that would lead us to believe SK can keep this bout close.
Prediction: MAD Lions -7.5 kills – 1.83 at Pinnacle
Schalke 04 vs Misfits Gaming
Friday, March 13 – 19:00 CET
Misfits put up quite an impressive performance this season, as there were not many people who would have thought the Bunnies would be sitting in the top half of the LEC standings ahead of Week 8 of the Spring Split. With their great fundamentals, coordination and solid team fighting, Misfits entirely deserve to be ranked fourth in the league, yet they still lack that little something that would push them above the likes of Origen, G2 Esports and Fnatic.
Nonetheless, Misfits are still far superior to Schalke 04, who have already dropped out of the race for the playoffs. While that could suggest Schalke 04 will be dangerous here, considering they have nothing to lose, Misfits should still come out ahead, just because they cannot afford to lose this bout and should approach this fixture with a bit more motivation to win.
Due to the team’s playstyle and the situation they’re in, we expect Schalke to set a fast tempo of the match and Misfits doing their best to keep up the pace up until mid-late game when they will pull ahead anc win. For that reason, this bout should easily reach 22 kills, while we are confident Misfits possess enough quality to close out the game with at least seven kills to spare.
Prediction: Over 21.5 kills – 1.847 at Pinnacle
Prediction: Misfits -6.5 kills – 1.900 at Pinnacle
Excel Esports vs Fnatic
Friday, March 13 – 20:00 CET
Fnatic should come out ahead here, and they most likely will, but we have to consider that Excel put up a solid fight in their first meeting and even came close to winning before they lost it all in the final teamfight. With an ex-Fnatic coach at the helm, Excel will always have a certain level of an advantage here, considering they will have all the inside information about how Fnatic players think. Is that enough for them to upset Fnatic? Maybe, but not likely.
That said, the +7.5 kills handicap on Excel, priced at 1.909 looks very appealing. Although they will struggle to keep up the pace with the surging Fnatic, Excel should at least keep this match relatively close. A lot of that will come down to Son “Mickey” Young-min and his performance in the mid lane. While he can be very inconsistent, Excel desperately need a win and the added pressure should inspire a stronger performance from the team as a whole, including Mickey. With that in mind, seeing Excel keeping this bout within seven kills is far more likely than Fnatic closing out the game with eight kills to spare.
Prediction: Excel +7.5 kills – 1.909 at Pinnacle
Origen vs Vitality
Friday, March 13 – 21:00 CET
This is the most one-sided fixture of the week on the paper, yet there is one massive factor that needs to be considered. Origen are based in Denmark and are unable to travel to Berlin due to the European travel ban due to COVID-19 outbreak, meaning they will play this game online. That effectively means they could be playing at a much higher ping compared to Vitality, putting them in a massive disadvantage.
Will that be enough for Vitality to win? Well, probably not, but considering they will be playing in better conditions, they should at least keep the match close. What’s more, we expect this game to be played a but slower, as Origen won’t be able to play at their tempo, which should result in less kills across the board. For that reason, both +10.5 kills handicap on Vitality (1.89 at Pinnacle) and Under 21.5 kills (1.884) look very appealing betting options.
Prediction: Vitality +10.5 – 1.89 at Pinnacle
Prediction: Under 21.5 kills – 1.884 at Pinnacle
G2 Esports vs Rogue
Friday, March 13 – 21:00 CET
G2 are not the same team we were looking at in 2019 and although they defeated Fnatic last week, it was not so much G2’s superior performance that earned them the win, but rather Fnatic’s poor display which lost them their bout.
As much as it’s hard to side against G2, who on their best day can look nearly unstoppable, we have a hard time believing they can go 2-0 this week. They have shown way too many inconsistencies and it’s clear something is not running smoothly for them this split.
Rogue, on the other side, are a solid team and they don’t get enough credit for their performances. Yes, they are only fourth at the standings, but most of their losses were extremely close. What’s more, 9-5 record puts them only one game behind both Fnatic and Origen, so it’s hard to undervalue Rogue here.
Why exactly do esports bookmakers have Rogue priced at 1.854 on +9.5 kills handicap is anyone’s guess. Rogue have a strong laning phase and had some solid performances in recent weeks. An outright bet on Rogue could also be considered, given the inflated odds (4.09), but when it comes to the best bet you can make here, it’s without a doubt backing Rogue to keep this bout within nine kills.
Prediction: Rogue +9.5 kills – 1.854 at Pinnacle
Longshot bet: Rogue to win – 4.09 at Pinnacle
Best Bet: Rogue +9.5 kills – 1.854 at Pinnacle
