League of Legends – LEC Spring Week 8 – Day 3

Vitality vs Misfits

Vitality and Misfits are both already out of the race for the playoffs spot, effectively meaning this match and its result does not matter for either side. Does that mean we are in for a sloppier match? Not necessarily, but at the same time, we can expect teams to have a bit more fun and perhaps pull out some unusual drafts only to entertain the fans.

I expected much of the same with the match between Misfits and G2 and while we did not see Lillia in the jungle as predicted (she got banned) we instead got to see Dr Mundo in the top lane for the first time in over two years.

Talking about the said match, Misfits looked solid on paper since they managed to steal 19 kills from G2, but quite frankly, that match should have ended in 20 minutes with G2 stomping Misfits into the dirt. Vitality, on the other side, got crushed by Schalke who are continuing their miracle run and are now on the brink of securing a playoffs spot after being 0-9 halfway through the split.

Milica was still fairly solid in that game and Cabochard had his moments, but overall, Vitality showcased they lack the needed quality to compete in the LEC.

What I expect here is a very open match. Both sides can be deadly, but both also share the same problem which is their inability to effectively use their leads and close out the games. With that in mind, we can expect a team with strong early-game comp to get ahead and the other side (with scaling comp) taking back the lead in the late game, effectively meaning we are in for a match with plenty of kills on the board, and no clear winner.

Prediction: Over 23.5 kills – 1.862


MAD Lions vs Schalke 04

It’s a do-or-die situation for Schalke who can complete their miracle run with a win against MAD Lions, who did not look too sharp as of late. They’re still undoubtedly one of the best teams Europe has produced this year, but their performances as of late have not looked too good.

I’m still not sure what is the cause for MAD Lions’ downfall, perhaps they don’t care anymore or are just too careless since they are guaranteed a playoffs berth and don’t really need to win anymore. Nevertheless, they will likely look to close out the split with a win and while Schalke have looked exceptional as of late, they can still hardly compare to the raw strength of MAD Lions.

MAD lions are the most likely victors since they have been consistently better than Schalke, however at these odds, backing MAD is not something I am prepared to do – especially after their loss to Rogue yesterday. In the said match, MAD Lions made way too many individual mistakes and got severely punished for that and I don’t see how Schalke can’t punish them as well.

Expecting Schalke to win might be a bit too optimistic, but if they can continue playing at the same pace they did up to now, securing 10 kills should be a piece of cake.

Prediction: Schalke 04 over 9.5 kills – 1.833


Rogue vs Origen

As talked about before, the morale in Origen’s squad is an all-time low and we can be sure that the situation is even worse after their humiliating loss to SK Gaming. With that, Origen have officially dropped out of the playoffs race and now have a long and boring offseason ahead of them. But first, they need to face the LEC frontrunners Rogue, who decimated MAD Lions yesterday and with that secured the top seed ahead of the playoffs.

Comparing the two sides, Rogue are without a doubt the better team, however, they are also very predictable, which will likely become more obvious in the playoffs or perhaps during Worlds, if they make it so far.

Do I believe Rogue are beatable? Yes, they certainly are, but it’s very unlikely we will see Origen be the team who will manage to achieve that feat. The only way I could imagine Origen derailing Rogue is with some unique and unorthodox draft which would surprise Rogue, but at the end of the day, Origen are not that kind of a team.

It’s hard to understand how much do these two teams value this game since it does not really matter for them who wins, which suggests we are in for a more open game, such as it will likely be the case with Misfits v Vitality bout. Nevertheless, Origen showed little to no quality as of late and if we add the internal turmoil and low morale, it makes it easy to side with Rogue at -5.5 kills.

Prediction: Rogue -5.5 kills – 1.840


G2 Esports vs Excel

If Excel muster up a win here, they are locked in for playoffs, if they lose, a lot of chaos will ensue in the final standings. There are too many combinations that can come out from the final day of LEC 2020 Summer and I won’t go through them all here, but one thing to know is that Excel are desperate for a win, while G2 are… well they’re happy to lock in playoffs and now only need to play out this game as a formality.

Even though G2 Esports don’t care as much for their results as seen in their clash against Misfits, they are playing at a much higher level than we are used to seeing from them this split. Yesterday, they were miles ahead of Misfits, but decided to have some “fun with their pray”, which produced an exciting and bloody match with over 40 kills on the board.

This match will likely be the same in terms of the “fun factor” and I don’t see how or why G2 would enjoy speed running Excel, even though they could do it considering how solid they have been playing lately.

Yesterday we saw Caps and Perkz play exceptionally well, which leads me to believe G2 will have no issues shutting down Patrik, while Special is bound to struggle in the mid lane. Since this is an important match for Excel, I don’t believe they will be too aggressive, but when facing G2 or any other team that goes all-in, playing a reactive style usually results in giving up plenty of deaths.

Prediction: G2 Esports over 15.5 kills – 1.840


Fnatic vs SK

Both teams have been very volatile with their performances and since Fnatic’s success comes down to whether the communication in the team is solid on any given day and to some degree Hylissang’s performance, while SK’s success relies on Zazee and Crowshot, this game is too unpredictable for me to give my prediction since the two more or less cancel each other out.

Fnatic are still the favorites and will likely win in a bid to secure a playoff spot, but before we see some more consistency from them, there is no reason to place any wager on them.

No prediction