LOL LCS Spring Week 1 – Day 1 Betting Previews and Predictions
TSM vs FlyQuest
Saturday, February 6 – 15:00 PST
TSM and FlyQuest will clash in the opening fixture of the 2021 LCS Spring split after they both crashed out of the LCS Lock-In in the quarter-finals against Cloud9 and Team Liquid respectively. The betting odds favor TSM, which seems about fair given their individual quality, but there is definitely a world where FlyQuest can upset them, largely because TSM haven’t looked too sharp of late.
The main reason why I am not too excited about TSM is their poor drafting and unless they find an improvement on that, I am giving FlyQuest a realistic chance to steal the W.
Lane-by-lane, I would give TSM an edge in the jungle, mid and in the bottom matchup, but TSM fans should be concerned with the top lane matchup, where I can confidently say Eric “Licorice” Ritchie is the better player.
If we draw a line, FlyQuest have a chance to win, but I just can’t agree with all the hype surrounding this team. Yes, TSM looked extremely bad in the Lock-In and their drafts make my head hurt at times, but this team has to improve sooner or later and with the raw talent they have, it’s hard to bet against them just as much as their iffy showings make it hard to bet on them.
Team Liquid vs Immortals
Saturday, February 6 – 16:00 PST
There is not much to say about this game. Team Liquid are objectively a much better team than Immortals, who haven’t shown anything that would lead me to believe they will stand a chance here. One thing going for Immortals is that their early LCS Lock-In elimination offered them a chance to watch Liquid play, meaning they had enough time to figure out a proper strategy to defeat the Lock-In champions.
Will be that enough? It might give them a better chance to make something happen, but I wouldn’t count on them winning. Team Liquid are simply too good at the moment and rarely make mistakes in their games. They might have dropped the ball a bit against C9 in the Lock-In finals, but… they had to face C9.
In some ways Liquid are similar to Rogue from the LEC, meaning they won’t be losing games against bottom-teams such as Immortals. The problem I have with this match is the betting odds which price Liquid at only 1.13.
The kill handicap is set at 9.5 which despite everything I have said up to now seems a bit high. Even though I don’t see Immortals outperforming TL, there is a world where IMT outdraft TL and get a beneficial matchup in mid and jungle, which could potentially make this match much closer than expected. This is a pass for me.
100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses
Saturday, February 6 – 17:00 PST
This is a match I am the most excited about, as it features two teams who have been playing very well and enter the LCS Spring as two of the main favorites to challenge Liquid and C9 for the title.
One thing to take away from EG and their performances at the Lock-In is an aggressive and scrappy playstyle, which is nothing unusual for a team that fields Daniele “Jiizuke” di Mauro and Lee “IgNar” Dong-geun. Still, this makes most of their games very coin-flippy.
There is a high chance this could turn out to be a bloody game, but it will heavily depend on the drafts. Both sides have shown they can play split-push compositions, which will, in turn, result in a slower game, so we are not too high on the over/under kill market.
At the end of the day, 100T come off as a better team and are a solid pick at 1.671. There is a world where they slip, but based on what we have seen in the Lock-In, 100T are a much more consistent team than EG so you have to favor them here.
Prediction: 100T to win – 1.671 at Pinnacle
Golden Guardians vs Cloud9
Saturday, February 6 – 18:00 PST
Golden Guardians have looked much better than expected throughout LCS Lock-In, but looking at this match, I wouldn’t dare to say they stand a chance against Cloud9. GG simply don’t have the talent to compete with C9 even though C9 severely disappointed with their showings so far.
When exploring the possibility for an upset, we have to compare players lane by lane and look for matchups where the underdogs might have an advantage. I don’t see one such example with GG.
It remains to be seen how C9 will approach this game and whether they can cover the kill handicap, but I am fairly confident trusting Robert “Blaber” Huang to speed up the game enough for us to see plenty of action. He is known to lead the charge and force his team to fight every chance they get, which will be beneficial for C9 since they’re individually much stronger.
At 1.787, I’m ready to take Cloud9 to win with at least nine kills to spare. They might have not looked too good during the Lock-In, but they’re still a far superior team to GG.
Prediction: Cloud9 -8.5 kills – 1.787 at Pinnacle
Counter Logic Gaming vs Dignitas
Saturday, February 6 – 19:00 PST
Counter Logic Gaming and Dignitas will clash in the final fixture of the day in what promises to be a close and exciting bout – even though these are arguably two of the weakest teams in the league. Based on what we have seen in the Lock-In, CLG might seem stronger, but I just can’t see it even though CLG will finally get to play with Finn “Finn” Wiestål, who has arrived to LA earlier last month.
Looking at the match-ups, I wouldn’t rank Finn much higher than Aaron “FakeGod” Lee, largely because the ex-Rogue top laner likely didn’t have enough time to build a synergy with his team, while I would rank Joshua “Dardoch” Hartnett as a much better jungler than Raymond “Griffin” Griffin (formerly Wiggily).
Moving down to the mid lane, the recent rumors suggest Eugene “Pobelter” Park won’t be playing for CLG due to some internal disagreements and will get replaced by Alexey “rjs” Zatorski. And if you’re wondering who rjs is, you already have your answer whether he is better than Max “Soligo” Soong.
The only thing going for CLG is their bottom lane, but even here, I wasn’t too impressed with Jason “WildTurtle” Tran and Andy “Smoothie” Ta, so it’s not like they will carry the game for their team.
CLG have no business being priced as the favorites and I will gladly take Dignitas at 2.00.
One more thing to note is that CLG tend to fight for no reason even when ahead, which usually results in high-scoring games. During the Lock-In they have averaged 11 kills and 20.3 deaths, while Dignitas averaged 10.5 kills and 17.3 deaths.
If those numbers and the team’s playstyle is any indication, this match could be a very one, which is why are also taking over 23.5 kills.
Prediction: Dignitas to win – 2.00 at Pinnacle
Prediction: Over 23.5 kills – 1.917 at Pinnacle