LOL LCS Spring Week 2 – Day 1 Betting Previews and Predictions
100 Thieves vs FlyQuest
Friday, February 15 – 15:00 PST
100 Thieves have become known for their fast style of play, which should earn them a fair amount of success this season – or at least as long as the majority of the LCS continues to play with a more slow-paced style. That, however, has its downsides, since 100T draft more early-game compositions, which require them to get ahead before the mid-game otherwise they find themselves in a losing position.
That said, 100T have managed to win a couple of games where they got outscaled after they failed to execute their win condition (get ahead early), which is quite commendable. Their next opponents, FlyQuest have looked much better than expected and while they’re still one of the weaker teams in the league, FlyQuest’s improvement since Josedodo’s arrival was noticeable.
100T are clearly the better team, but the offered odds are just a bit too low for me to take a shot with them, especially so early into the season and in a best-of-one series. This seems more like a game where you bet on the underdogs or don’t bet at all. For me, it’s the latter.
Team Liquid vs Counter Logic Gaming
Friday, February 15 – 16:00 PST
Counter Logic Gaming are still without Broxah, while Pobelter continues his journey in the Academy league, meaning CLG will be forced to play rjs once again. This is definitely not too promising given that CLG are now set to face a squad that is more than capable of challenging the title.
Besides their fluke loss against Immortals, Liquid are looking like the cleanest team in the league. They not only individually stronger than most of the league, but Liquid also have a strong game sense and tend to play with a very composed playstyle – which might make them predictable, but there are not many teams in the LCS that can take advantage of that.
One thing that is very obvious about Liquid is that they don’t go for kills and are quite happy if they win with a score 6-4, which makes kill handicap bets against them a very attractive option.
While I expect Liquid to trash CLG and win with a couple of thousand gold lead, the kill handicap is set way too high for us to ignore. At the same time, 5.5 is quite a low team total even for CLG.
Prediction: CLG +9.5 kills – 1.909
Prediction: CLG over 5.5 kills – 1.775
Cloud9 vs Evil Geniuses
Friday, February 15 – 17:00 PST
Similar to Fnatic in the LEC, Evil Geniuses like to play very aggressively and while that style of play might not be optimal for long-term success, it’s definitely the way to play if you wish to produce exciting games and occasionally surprise stronger teams. And that is not to say EG lack individual quality to compete with the elite teams either.
Cloud9 looked much better in the LCS Spring compared to what they have shown in the LCS Lock-In, however, they have yet to face a tough team. So far they have beaten TSM, Golden Guardians and Immortals who are either struggling with their form or just lack the individual quality, so it’s not like C9 have proven anything yet.
Some may argue C9 are a stronger team, but I am very concerned with how Fudge will do against Impact on the top side of the map. I can even imagine a world where Jiizuke defeats Perkz or at least goes even, and much of the same holds true for the bottom lane matchup.
This seems like a match that can easily go both ways, so I can’t quite agree with the betting odds that have C9 priced as big favorites. The odds seem a bit inflated due to C9’s domination of the aforementioned (weaker) opponents, so I just can’t pass on taking EG to win here.
Prediction: Evil Geniuses to win – 2.47 Pinnacle
Golden Guardians vs TSM
Friday, February 15 – 18:00 PST
If there is one thing we have learned watching the LCS Lock-In and the opening fixtures of the LCS Spring is that any bet against TSM is a good bet, especially when faced with an underdog. Even though TSM will face Golden Guardians, who are dealing with their own early-season struggles, that’s no excuse to have them priced as low as 1.338 not against GG and not against any other team in the league.
Pinnacle offers 1.74 on Golden Guardians to keep this match within seven kills which is a bet I can’t pass on. I’m also taking Golden Guardians to win at 3.30.
Prediction: Golden Guardians +7.5 kills – 1.74 Pinnacle
Prediction: Golden Guardians to win – 3.30 Pinnacle
Immortals vs Dignitas
Friday, February 15 – 19:00 PST
Immortals did not disappoint with what they have shown so far. They took a game off Team Liquid and even though they got completely trashed by C9 a day later, I would not put too much weight on that result because… well they had to face C9. On the other side, we have Dignitas who did not look bad, but they haven’t looked good either.
Even though DIG had a tough schedule (100 Thieves and Team Liquid), It’s hard to be overly excited about their win against CLG, which proved to be more of a clown fiesta rather than any indication of Dignitas’ quality.
I am very tempted to bet on Immortals, however, it’s difficult to say whether they’re the better team here. Immortals took a fluke win, whereas DIG was scrapped by CLG in a game that is difficult to analyze. What those results mean is anyone’s guess and I’m not ready to take a team that only seems to be better.