LOL LCS Spring Week 2 – Day 3 Betting Previews and Predictions
Team Liquid vs 100 Thieves
Sunday, February 14 – 13:00 PST
Team Liquid enter this match off a humiliating loss against TSM, which is somewhat concerning, even though it hardly means much in the greater picture. 100 Thieves, meanwhile suffered their first loss of the season yesterday when they had to admit defeat to Cloud9. Regardless of that loss, 100T looked good, so I have nothing negative to say about this team and their performance that day.
I have a very difficult time picking out a winner here. On one side, it would be fair to say Liquid are severely underrated solely due to their fluke loss against TSM, but then there are also arguments to be made this is a 50/ 50 match, making 100T (2.39 Pinnacle) a much better pick.
Generally speaking, Liquid are still playing a much cleaner, less volatile LoL than 100T, however, they tend to struggle against strong early-game teams that can secure early leads and use that to snowball to victory. That, unfortunately, is exactly what 100T are. Is this enough to convince me to bet on 100T? Well not really.
Team Liquid have enough quality to slow down 100T in the early game and force them to play at their pace and as long as they can achieve that, Liquid should win more times than not. On that note, this is also a match between two top teams in the league, where neither can afford to lose, which usually results in slower games.
I expect TL to win, but it won’t be a fast game. Seeing this game drag out for over 33 minutes is something I can imagine happening and at 2.50, I’m happy to take this bet.
Prediction: Over 33:00 (game time) – 2.50 Pinnacle
Immortals vs TSM
Sunday, February 14 – 14:00 PST
TSM secured a big upset win on Saturday when they took down Team Liquid, whereas Immortals managed an equally impressive shock win against Evil Geniuses. The main thing we need to answer here is what to take away from those results and quite frankly the answer is – not a lot.
Outside of their fluke wins yesterday, IMT and TSM have not impressed me yet. Both sides are very inconsistent and unpredictable which is usually where we would take the underdogs, but for today, this is a pass for me.
Evil Geniuses vs Dignitas
Sunday, February 14 – 15:00 PST
I can’t say I was impressed with EG’s performances yesterday, however, I can’t praise Dignitas for their win against Golden Guardians either, since… well they had to face Golden Guardians.
It was quite shocking to see EG lose against Immortals considering how dominant they have looked of late, although it was only a matter of time before their aggressive playstyle backfires. Dignitas, on the other side, are not nearly as aggressive as EG, nor are they a very stable team, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re performing poorly.
More times than not EG should win this one match with ease (where did I hear that before), however, I’m not ready to risk my money on them two days in a row. Dignitas definitely have the tools to cause an upset, or at very least prove they’re competitive enough to keep this match close.
Dignitas to secure at least nine kills (1.806) is a very appealing bet, but if we truly believe DIG can manage nine kills, then it’s only fair to say EG can cross double digits as well. Over 23.5 kills is the way to go.
Prediction: Over 23.5 kills – 1.934
Cloud9 vs FlyQuest
Sunday, February 14 – 15:00 PST
Even though FlyQuest might not seem a strong team if you check their record alone, it’s important to consider they have looked very competitive in their losses against 100 Thieves, Team Liquid and Evil Geniuses, while they had no real issues taking down TSM and CLG. Even though I was not too high on this team ahead of this season, I am becoming a huge fan of FlyQuest, largely due to their improvement and unique approach to drafting.
For this match, there will also be not one, not two, but three “revenge stories”, with Eric “Licorice” Ritchie, Cristian “Palafox” Palafox and David “Diamond” Bérubé all former C9 members, who got removed, so it’s fair to say they’ve got some added motivation to prove their worth. That narrative, however, is not the reason why I would consider FlyQuest here.
Cloud9 have looked very good of late, however, it’s not like they’re a much stronger team than FlyQuest on the individual level. Yes, Luka “Perkz” Perković will be heavily favoured over Palafox in the mid lane, but let’s not forget C9’s Ibrahim “Fudge” Allami will have to face off against Licorice, who is still one of the best top laners in the league. What’s more, I wouldn’t sleep on FlyQuest’s bottom lane duo Johnson “Johnsun” Nguyen and Diamond, who have been playing very well so far this season and have also proven they are very flexible with their picks.
As good as C9 have looked, they have also proven they are more than capable of throwing their leads or fall behind in the early game. At 3.73, FlyQuest are definitely worth a shot, however, I’m also adding FlyQuest with a 7.5 kill handicap.
Prediction: FlyQuest +7.50 kills – 1.97
Prediction: FlyQuest to win – 3.73
Counter Logic Gaming vs Golden Guardians
Sunday, February 14 – 15:00 PST
A game doesn’t necessarily need to feature the strongest teams in the league to make it interesting and I believe this clash will prove just that. Unfortunately, it is also the last game of the day, so if you’re from Europe, you better get yourself a cup of coffee or two.
Golden Guardians have managed only one win so far this split and even that was a 48-minute match against Immortals. Overall, I am excited to watch how GG will develop, but after looking at their games it’s very obvious the majority of the team lacks or is completely void of pro-play experience – which has cost them the win a couple of times.
Counter Logic Gaming are another team that is struggling and while they had their flashes of greatness where they have accumulated leads – CLG also consistently wind a way to throw those away. That is not to say CLG haven’t improved, but from what I’ve seen, they’ve not shown enough for me to trust them with my money.
The only bet that appeals to me here is over 24.5 kills. Golden Guardians might not be able to close down their games, but they’re not afraid to fight, which should earn them a couple of kills against the disorganized CLG. Likewise, GG’s mid-late game struggles and poor decision making should help CLG pick up a few kills as well.
CLG are averaging 11.6 kills and 18.8 deaths per game, whereas Golden Guardians average 6.8 kills and 16.6 deaths per game. At this point, it’s worth noting GG managed only six kills against EG and five against C9, so their kill average is a bit skewed.
Prediction: Over 24.5 kills – 1.740 Pinnacle