LOL LCS Spring Week 3 – Day 1 Betting Previews and Predictions
Counter Logic Gaming vs Cloud9
Friday, February 19 – 15:00 PST
Broxah won’t be starting this game even though he has finally got his visa approved, and will instead make his 2021 LCS debut against Immortals tomorrow. Although it’s unclear whether Broxah can save CLG, he is definitely better than Griffin, who I don’t believe has the raw talent to compete with C9’s Blaber.
And it’s not only the jungle matchup that works heavily in C9’s favour, but it’s more than fair to say C9 are much stronger than CLG across the board. At this point, it’s worth noting that CLG had a good game against Golden Guardians last week, but that is hardly an indication of how well this team will perform going forward.
C9 enter this match off three back-to-back wins against FlyQuest and 100Thieves who they beat with 10 and 12 kill margin, which is a good indication of C9’s ability to secure kills. They slipped up against Evil Geniuses at the start of week two, but C9 have before that secured very convincing wins against GG, TSM and Immortals, who they beat with 10, 16 and 18 kills to spare.
Although I’m not a big fan of large kill handicaps, I don’t see how C9 can lose against a 1-5 CLG, who have yet to show any improvement outside of their win against GG.
Prediction: Cloud9 -8.5 kills – 1.757 Pinnacle
Dignitas vs FlyQuest
Friday, February 19 – 16:00 PST
I like this match and not necessarily because it will feature two top-tier teams, but rather because we will finally get to see whether Dignitas’ 4-2 record is any indication of their strength – which it probably isn’t.
Flyquest might be 2-4, but we have to consider their four losses came against Evil Genuises, Team Liquid, 100 Thieves and Cloud9, who are undeniably the top teams in the league as of now and most likely until the end of the split. Dignitas’ four wins, on the other side, came against CLG, Immortals, Golden Guardians and Evil Geniuses, with the latter being a complete fluke.
That’s not to say Dignitas are the worst team in the league. In fact, they have been showing some solid performances, but I just can’t rank them above the league’s average. Much of their success is due to their jungler Joshua “Dardoch” Hartnett, who is playing well and as long as Dignitas can continue playing around him, they will do more than fine against the bottom-of-the-table teams.
It’s hard to say how FlyQuest will do against other mid-table teams given that they had to face mostly top teams so far this split, but there are a few things to take away from their playstyle. FlyQuest love to team fight and usually do well in 5v5 situations, which should work well against Dignitas. FlyQuest also have solid drafts, which could potentially get them the needed edge to be competitive with any team in the league.
Lane-by-lane, FlyQuest should have an edged in the top lane, where you simply have to favour Eric “Licorice” Ritchie over Aaron “FakeGod” Lee, but at the same time, I like Dardoch more than Brandon Joel “Josedeodo” Villegas in his current form. Mid lane seems equally matched, and much of the same holds true for the bottom lane, although FlyQuest’s duo seems to have a higher ceiling and should prove to be better as the season goes on.
This seems like a 50/50 match that is only slightly in favour of FlyQuest. The top lane gap could swing this game heavily in FlyQuest’s favour, however, for that to happen Josedeodo will have to step up and go at least even with Dardoch, which is something I can imagine happening, but I wouldn’t bet my money on it.
Golden Guardians vs Team Liquid
Friday, February 19 – 17:00 PST
When games come on that have Team Liquid and a huge underdog, it’s usually better to just avoid betting on it altogether and that’s exactly what I’ll do here.
Golden Guardians are objectively the worst team in the league that fields still developing talent i.e. lack quality, who also so many questionable plays that it makes it very difficult to trust them against any other team in the league. It goes without saying TL should win with ease, but at 1.119, this is not a bet I will be taking.
The next best thing is of course the kill handicap, but then you have to consider TL almost never win with large kill leads and almost certainly won’t cover the 9.5 kill handicap. That is unless if GG run into TL, which is a possibility.
These teams also have one of the lowest combined kills in their games so it would make sense to take unders. The line is set at 22.5 kills but I’m very hesitant taking it since GG are the type of team I could imagine going all-in with an aggressive early-game composition in hopes to catch TL off guard.
Stats-wise, Team Liquid average 13.8 kills and 7.2 deaths per win while GG average 14.22 deaths with just under 7 kills per loss. Either way you look at it, the total kill bet is just a bit too low.
TSM vs Evil Geniuses
Friday, February 19 – 18:00 PST
TSM enter this match on a four-game winning streak, which makes it seem like they have found their rhythm and will not be easily stopped – at least that’s what the public perception of this team is now. I, however, would not be so quick to jump on the hype train especially considering TSM haven’t won any notable matches except for their week 2 win against TL, which was a match that Liquid lost rather one which TSM won.
Evil Geniuses slipped up a couple of times last week when they lost against Immortals and Dignitas, but I wouldn’t overreact to those results. This is still the third or fourth-best team in the league and while they might not be one of the squads I can imagine competing for the title, they’re up there with the best.
There is not a lot to separate these two teams quality-wise even though there are definitely arguments to be made for either side. Still, the question is whether TSM are really as strong as they looked like last week and whether EG can bounce back after two devastating losses.
This is a complete coin-flip match, which is why I am not ready to take either side. That said, I don’t expect complete dominance from one team either. Instead, I expect a long and close match that will eventually be decided by a late-game team fight, which makes me believe TSM and EG will easily combine 25 kills.
EG average 12.75 kills and give up six deaths in wins, while TSM average 15.33 kills and 7.6 deaths in games they end up winning. In losses, EG average 8.4 kills and 19.3 deaths, while TSM average 5 kills and 14 deaths per loss, granted their numbers are a bit misleading due to TSM’s early-season slump.
Prediction: Over 24.5 kills – 1.806 Pinnacle
100 Thieves vs Immortals
Friday, February 19 – 19:00 PST
You just don’t know where to place Immortals. They won against Team Liquid and Evil Geniuses but lost against Dignitas and Golden Guardians. Regardless you can be certain they’re weaker than 100 Thieves if you compare these two teams on the individual level even though the gap is not significant in some of the roles
Lane-by-lane, Andrei “Xerxe” Dragomir can be a better jungler than Can “Closer” Çelik, especially in the long run, as he seems capable of adapting to different metas. David “Insanity” Challe should be capable of holding his own against Tanner “Damonte” Damonte and there is a world where IMT’s bottom lane goes even with 100T’s duo.
That said, there are two things that concern me – top lane and Quin “Raes” Korebrits. The former doesn’t need any explanation since Kim “Ssumday” Chan-ho is a significantly better player, whereas Raes can have his off-days where he looks like he doesn’t belong in this league.
Regardless, 100T seem a bit overpriced, which is why I would stake 0.5 units on Immortals to cause another upset. They might not be the most consistent team in the league, but if IMT manage to secure an early lead, I could imagine a world where they upset the current frontrunners.
Prediction: Immortals to win – 4.32 Pinnacle