LOL LCS Spring Week 5 – Day 1 Betting Previews and Predictions
TSM vs Dignitas
Friday, March 5 – 15:00 PST
TSM are individually a much better team than Dignitas even though it’s fair to say Dignitas have been much better than expected. The betting odds have TSM priced as 1.466 favorites which is a bit too low, but at the same time, I wouldn’t want to bet on Dignitas because they are not as strong as TSM individually and as a team.
On one hand, it would make sense to side with TSM with a kill handicap, but TSM are not a particularly high kills/win team, whereas Dignitas are the second-lowest death/loss team in the LCS. For this match, you either take Dignitas or pass. For me, it’s the latter.
100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses
Friday, March 5 – 16:00 PST
Evil Geniuses are priced very generously for this match and anyone who has been watching LCS games can agree EG are more than capable of winning this match.
If we compare these two teams lane-by-lane, there is not a lot to set these two sides apart. The top lane matchup is 50/50 and much of the same holds true for the jungle matchup, although I slightly prefer 100T’s top laner, whereas I am giving EG an edge in the jungle.
For the bottom lane, Ian Victor “FBI” Huang is a better ADC, but there is no denying Lee “IgNar” Dong-geun support, which more or less produces another 50/50 lane. Now as far as the mid lane is concerned, things get very interesting.
100T have replaced Tanner “Damonte” Damonte with Tommy “ry0ma” Le, which might seem like a good move on paper since Damonte hasn’t been doing well this season, however, we have to remember just how poorly ry0ma has been playing last season before he got pushed to the academy team. Unless ry0ma suddenly became a more stable and less volatile player, 100T might stand a chance, but that is a big IF that I’m not ready to believe until I see improvement with my own eyes.
I just don’t see why EG would be priced as high as they are against 100T as there seems to be some kind of a narrative ry0ma will instantly improve this team – which he won’t. At 2.20, I’m taking EG every day of the week.
Prediction: Evil Geniuses to win – 2.20 Pinnacle
FlyQuest vs Cloud9
Friday, March 5 – 17:00 PST
The question for this match is not so much whether Cloud9 can win, but rather what can FlyQuest do to upset the current league frontrunners and whether they even stand a chance. And to be completely fair, I can imagine FlyQuest winning this game if these teams were to play a couple of dozen matches.
FlyQuests’ main strength is their drafting, which has been very solid so far and could give them an edge in this matchup. That said, FlyQuest are just not playing too well of late.
I personally don’t like this matchup too much. C9 should win more times than not, but it’s hard to say whether they will manage to cover the kill line or will they barely squeeze past FlyQuest who are not as weak as they might seem with their recent showings. The kill spreads is a bit too high for my liking, so I’ll avoid betting on this match altogether.
Team Liquid vs Golden Guardians
Friday, March 5 – 18:00 PST
It’s very difficult to imagine Golden Guardians beating Team Liquid, however, with the way they’ve been playing it’s shocking to see them win any games. The simplest way to explain why Liquid are much stronger than GG is if we look at the matchups lane-by-lane, where Liquid field players that are a class or two above GG’s rookie squad.
Even though TL will win this match 9/10, you just can’t feel too comfortable betting on them to cover a kill line, which is fairly high for this match. GG are priced as high as 1.877 to keep this match within nine kills, which seems a fairly good offer considering TL rarely win with massive kill leads.
We have sided with TL’s opponents with kill handicaps and it worked well, and until they start playing a more aggressive style and look for kills instead of playing as slow as they are now, this will be the go-to bet in games involving Liquid. For this match, however, I have a gut Liquid will show a more aggressive side, but I’m not ready to risk it with such a high kill line.
Immortals vs Counter Logic Gaming
Friday, March 5 – 19:00 PST
Counter Logic Gaming have looked much better of late and I believe this team will continue to improve as the season goes on. They might not achieve the status of a serious title contender, but I can easily imagine them finishing inside the top-five next split.
Immortals, on the other side, are not a very good team and while they’re still better than GG, they’re simply not good. The betting odds have them priced as the favorites, which might make sense since CLG are the type of team that will beat themselves, but after watching games of both sides, I have to favor CLG.
Prediction: CLG to win – 2.00 Pinnacle