We had a good start to the LCS Summer 2021, ending Day 1 with a little over three units in profit. Results-wise, it was a volatile day, painted in the colors of the underdogs, and we expect that trend to continue.
TSM vs Evil Geniuses
Saturday, June 5 – 14:00 PDT
TSM started off the LCS 2021 Summer with a massive victory over Team Liquid. However, I wouldn’t overreact to one result, especially from the opening match of the season.
Neither team played particularly well, and you could say that Liquid players underperformed across the board – which again is nothing unusual for early-split matches.
Evil Geniuses enter the second round of LCS 2021 Spring off a painful loss against Dignitas. EG got off to a fast start in that match and were over 5k gold ahead of Dignitas pre-20 minutes, but somehow found a way to lose.
It was another example of a game where Dignitas escaped with a robbery. That said, they played well enough to make a comeback, so props to them for that – as they had several times last season.
As talked about in our LCS 2021 Summer preview, EG are a team that will lose to teams they shouldn’t have (check) and are more than capable of beating the side they shouldn’t have i.e. TSM.
At this price, I’m ready to take a shot with Evil Geniuses. While they’re extremely inconsistent, EG have enough talent to take down any team. And most importantly, 2.95 is way too high for a clash between two top teams in the LCS.
Prediction: Evil Geniuses to win – 2.95 at Pinnacle
Dignitas vs FlyQuest
Saturday, June 5 – 15:00 PDT
Dignitas enter this match as 1.699 favourites after stealing a win from Evil Geniuses. As they have done it several times last season, Dignitas managed to turn the game upside down in the mid-late game come away with a W.
It takes a certain amount of quality to do so, but then again, they faced the inconsistent and shaky-looking Evil Geniuses, so I would take that result with a grain of salt. Particularly due to Daniele “Jiizuke” di Mauro poor performance on Friday.
FlyQuest took down Counter Logic Gaming yesterday and looked much cleaner than last split. It’s a welcome change, but then again, we can’t take too much from the opening match of the split. No position for this match – 50/50.
Cloud9 vs 100 Thieves
Saturday, June 5 – 16:00 PDT
I had this gut feeling not to take 100 Thieves for the opening match of the split, but I got blinded by their players’ sheer quality. Noted mistake.
100T are a huge enigma and give off an impression of a hit-or-miss team. Felix “Abbedagge” Braun should easily be one of the top-four mid laners in the league – he hasn’t shown that yesterday. Can “Closer” Çelik is both the best and the worst jungler in the league – he showed the latter side of him yesterday. The same thing applies to almost all members of the team.
Last season 100T were a slow team in wins and tended to be a bit reckless in their losses – giving up way too many deaths (15.9), which is something I expect to continue heading into this split.
Their next opponents, Cloud9, need to bounce back after their humiliating loss against Golden Guardians, but that’s not a narrative I’m ready to follow. While I can’t say I fully expected GG to win, I was confident enough to back them, largely due to C9 roster swaps, questionable amount of time they have spent with their new ADC, and fatigue from the MSI – all three factors are still there for this match.
100T are 2.51 underdogs for this match, while Cloud9 are priced as 1.537 favorites. That price would be somewhat fair if this was a playoff match, but I don’t feel comfortable taking the favorites at this price so early into the split.
100T can hold their own against any team in the league, and while they looked very iffy last time out, you can say the same for C9 as well. The odds on 100T are way too high for the quality of players they field – they might have slipped against a weaker team, but 100T usually perform better against the LCS elite.
Prediction: 100 Thieves to win – 2.76 at Pinnacle
Team Liquid vs Counter Logic Gaming
Saturday, June 5 – 17:00 PDT
Team Liquid are priced as low as 1.352 against Counter Logic Gaming, which may seem fair, and it would have been fair had this match not been played in the opening week of LCS 2021 Summer. We also must address the elephant in the room, which is the benching of Liquid star top laner Barney “Alphari” Morris.
The organization have not unveiled why Alphari got removed from the roster, and we will likely never know for sure. He played poorly yesterday, but I don’t believe that one performance led to Liquid removing him from the roster. This smells like a change planned in advance, that got sped up for some reason.
I don’t know much about his replacement, Thomas “Jenkins” Tran, and even his numbers from the Academy league don’t mean much since they rarely translate to the LCS. HOWEVER, what I know and can expect is iffy synergy, making Liquid a bit more vulnerable. And that’s adding to favorites underperforming in the opening stages of the split.
Counter Logic Gaming dropped the ball against FlyQuest yesterday, primarily because they were unable to play to their draft’s strengths. You could argue they had a terrible draft, but it was actually a solid one relative to FlyQuest’s draft – had CLG took advantage of GP and Karthus into FlyQuest’s short-range composition.
I talked about how CLG are an underappreciated team, and one poor performance on an opening day won’t change my perception of them. They’re experienced enough to tackle any team, and while they might lack the star-studded roster of Liquid, it’s not like Liquid star players showed up yesterday.
Counter Logic Gaming to keep this one within six kills is the bet I’m ready to take. Smaller position on CLG to win as well.
Prediction: Counter Logic Gaming +6.5 – 1.833
Prediction: Counter Logic Gaming to win – 3.25 (0.5)
Immortals vs Golden Guardians
Saturday, June 5 – 18:00 PDT
I won’t write anything about this match since I won’t be betting on it. Golden Guardians did us a solid one by defeating Cloud9 yesterday, and while they might do it again against Immortals, the price is just not good enough for me to take a shot with them again.