We’re back with another League of Legends Championship Series (LCS) 2021 Summer betting previews and picks. The LCS drama that started a few weeks back is still going and has reached new heights ahead of Week 4 of play, which might or might not affect the team’s performances, presenting us with a few solid picks to look at.
LCS Summer Week 4 – Day 1
When: Friday, June 25 – 15:00 – 19:00 PDT
Number of Games: 5
We had no bets for LCS 2021 Summer Week 3 – Day 3, but have found a couple worth looking at for Friday. Much like it’s the case with the LEC, the meta isn’t very stable, which usually favors the underdogs and LCS is no exception to that rule.
Evil Geniuses vs Team Liquid
Friday, June 24 – 15:00 PDT
A quick rundown of what’s happening with Team Liquid: Barney “Alphari” Morris is still on leave (until Sunday, June 27), head coach Joshua “Jatt” Leesman has resigned, jungler Lucas “Santorin” Tao Kilmer Larsen is on personal medical leave and will get replaced by Jonathan “Armao” Armao.
The situation in Team Liquid is as chaotic as it may seem and the lack of any form of stability this side has been showing this split is enough to start doubting them. Despite all that, Liquid are still priced as the favorites to win this match at 1.598 (Pinnacle), which overrates them a bit.
Team Liquid are still a stacked roster, but with an academy top laner and a substitute jungler, it’s hard to make a strong case for them, especially at the offered odds. I was going to like Evil Geniuses in this position even before the news; however, after the departure of Liquid’s head coach, who, on top of that, now lack two of their best players, it’s easy to view Evil Geniuses as an obvious value bet.
While Liquid have been showing some improvement over the last few weeks, the recent incident surely can’t help the “locker room situation”. Liquid should still do fine for the remainder of the season, since they have good enough players to be competitive, but I expect them to perform slightly worse for a few games – until they learn how to play with a new coach.
100 Thieves vs Dignitas
Friday, June 24 – 16:00 PDT
Similarly to Team Liquid, Dignitas have been dealing with some internal drama. Their jungler Joshua “Dardoch” Hartnett is still out of the team after he was (supposedly) toxic towards his teammates, and his absence hasn’t helped Dignitas one bit.
Dignitas enter this match priced as heavy underdogs (3.56 at Pinnacle), which I can’t complain about. They haven’t been playing well, and I don’t see how Dignitas can improve unless they somehow reinvent themselves.
There is a chance Dignitas bounce back as they have enough solid and experienced players to carry the team through the hard times. Still, if you compare them to 100 Thieves, it’s hard to be overly optimistic about Dignitas’ chances to cause an upset.
100T bounced back from their humiliating loss to Counter Logic Gaming with two commanding victories against FlyQuest and Team Liquid, and quickly proved that they’re still the “real deal”. This team is simply way too good currently for us to believe they can lose against the dumpster fire Dignitas are now, however, betting on 100T on a kill handicap is not the right call due to the volatility of the current meta.
Cloud9 vs Golden Guardians
Friday, June 24 – 17:00 PDT
Cloud9 are one of the most stacked rosters in the LCS, but they haven’t changed much from the last split. They continue to rely on their mid-jungle duo to do all the heavy lifting and so far that hasn’t earned them much success. It also doesn’t help that Cloud9 are drafting very weird composition that hardly enable either Luka “Perkz” Perković or Robert “Blaber” Huang.
This is a match where you either take the underdogs or don’t bet at all. Golden Guardians won against Cloud9 at the start of the split, and while that result doesn’t mean that GG are simply a good team into Cloud9, it’s C9’s current form that suggests they could slip again.
Cloud9 should be favoured, but there is definitely value with GG. It really comes down to whether you believe that Cloud9 are bad enough to lose or not. For us, this is not a bet we’re interested in, largely because Cloud9 have done well against weaker LCS teams this split, but you really can’t go wrong with a smaller position on GG.
Immortals vs Counter Logic Gaming
Friday, June 24 – 18:00 PDT
Immortals and Counter Logic Gaming are priced at even money, which seems like a complete exaggeration of CLG’s sudden surge in form last week. They won against 100 Thieves, Evil Geniuses and Dignitas, which may seem good on paper, but there are a few things to consider.
100T lost that game 0-21, which was obviously not because CLG were that much better. CLG’s win against Evil Geniuses means nothing (because anyone can defeat EG), whereas CLG’s victory against Dignitas is hardly worth praising, considering the form DIG have been showing and the situation they’re in.
Immortals went 2-1 last week with a loss to TSM and two victories against Cloud9 and FlyQuest. Although not exactly spectacular results, you can’t deny that Immortals have been a very solid team throughout the season. They might lose a game here and there, but they exceptionally rarely underperform. Their read on the meta is great, and I can’t really point any major flaws in this team – unlike ¾ of the league.
This one really comes down to whether you believe CLG will keep their streak alive or not. You should realize that CLG aren’t as good as their record from last week would suggest, so assuming they don’t overperform against, Immortals should have this one in the bag.
TSM vs FlyQuest
Friday, June 24 – 19:00 PDT
TSM have done incredibly well this split and are deservingly priced as the favourites (1.353) for this match. Although they definitely underperformed in some of their games and won a couple which they shouldn’t have – namely their win against Immortals…
…they are still the best performing team in the league, and you can’t take that away from them.
FlyQuest, on the other side, are a team I was and continue to be bearish about. This is not a good team, and they have yet to prove us otherwise. FlyQuest enter this match on a four-game losing streak which includes losses to Golden Guardians, Team Liquid, 100 Thieves and Immortals, and not once did they look like a strong competitor.
For this game you either take TSM or don’t bet at all. Even though TSM have had some iffy moment, they’re overall a much better team than FlyQuest, who will need to pull out something really unique to walk away with an upset victory. However, I won’t be siding with TSM here, as there’s no value at 1.353, nor does it make much sense to take to cover the kill handicap since they have had some close games (kill-wise).
