Betting-Previews.com brings you League of Legends Championship Series (LCS) 2021 Summer betting tips and predictions for the final round of LCS 2021 Summer Week 5.
LCS Summer Week 5 – Day 3
When: Sunday, July 4 – 13:00 – 17:00 PDT
Number of Games: 5
Not the ending of a day we hoped for yesterday, with Immortals and Golden Guardians both suffering losses against TSM and Dignitas, respectively. Immortals had a good idea, but fell behind early and struggled to get back into the game, whereas Golden Guardians somehow blundered a game they should have won – but more on that later.
Golden Guardians vs Evil Geniuses
Sunday, July 4 – 13:00 PDT
Evil Geniuses enter this match off their fourth consecutive win against Counter Logic Gaming and are now only one win short of catching up to Team Liquid in the LCS standings. They’re priced as 1.396 (Pinnacle) favorites against Golden Guardians, which doesn’t surprise me since they’re overall a much better team.
Lane by lane, EG should be much stronger than Golden Guardians, which should gain them enough of an early lead to close out this game without any issues. In situations where EG face one of the weakest teams, we often looked at options to back the underdogs, mainly because of EG’s tendency to underperform when they’re expected to win.
EG were often overvalued by the bookmakers purely of the individual talent they field, which has earned us some nice payouts in the past. However, approaching EG’s games the same way isn’t possible anymore.
As noted in our previous LCS 2021 Summer, EG have become a more stable team that no longer underperforms against LCS’s bottom sides. They didn’t look as dominant against Counter Logic Gaming yesterday, but not once did it seem like Evil Geniuses weren’t in control.
With the form Evil Geniuses have been showing over the last few weeks, I wouldn’t bet against them here. There is a world where they return to their old ways and lose, but I wouldn’t count on that happening.
Golden Guardians have had a few solid showings and arguably should have won yesterday, but they’re still one of the weakest teams in the league.
100 Thieves vs Counter Logic Gaming
Sunday, July 4 – 14:00 PDT
100 Thieves enter this match on a seven-game winning streak and a 23-9 record on the season. That guarantees them a top-eight finish, meaning 100T are already through to the playoffs with four weeks left to be played.
As the new LCS frontrunners, 100T have already won against all other LCS top dogs and continue to show just how much better they are than any other North American team. They have a very talented roster, and it seems like that the $1 million they have spent on bringing in former Schalke 04 Esports mid laner Felix “Abbedagge” Braun is paying off.
While 100T deserve a lot of praise for their performances, they’re by no means a perfect team. They can seamlessly gain early advantages but are pretty frustrating to watch when trying to close out their games. It’s a significant flaw in their games, but seemingly a weakness no other team in the LCS know how to punish.
The question for this match is not so much whether 100 Thieves can win, but rather what can Counter Logic Gaming do to make 100T’s job more challenging. With the way they’ve been playing, it’s hard to make a strong case for CLG.
They’re on a five-game losing streak, making them the second coldest team in the league – behind only FlyQuest, who have lost all of their last nine outings. Yesterday, CLG lost to Evil Geniuses, and while they had their moments of greatness, EG were always a step ahead of them and were clearly the better team.
If CLG struggled to deliver against EG, expecting them to see any success against 100T is wishful thinking. 100T might not be perfect, but they haven’t shown anything that would suggest that they can lose against a team like CLG.
If CLG opt for scaling and try to outmuscle 100T in the late game – where 100T seem to be the weakest – I could imagine an upset victory here, but the eye test proves that isn’t likely to happen.
Cloud9 vs TSM
Sunday, July 4 – 15:00 PDT
Cloud9 are slowly improving, and while they’re not “there” yet, C9 are playing better with each passing week. Yesterday, they took down Team Liquid quite convincingly, which should make TSM tremble in their boots.
The game ended in just 31:34, with Cloud9 sealing the deal with a +15.2k gold lead and 15-2 in kills. Interestingly, it wasn’t so much about Team Liquid underperforming, but Cloud9 simply being the better team on the day.
After their commanding showing, Cloud9 enter this match as betting favorites (1.699 at Pinnacle), which makes sense. While overreacting to one good showing isn’t wise, it’s not like that game was Cloud9’s only strong performance of the week.
TSM won this match back at the end of LCS 2021 Summer Week 3, with a 6.5k gold lead and 14-5 in kills. TSM were the better team on the day, but they don’t look as potent heading into this match. TSM won against Immortals yesterday but dropped the ball against Dignitas on Saturday.
TSM have been a more consistent team throughout the split, but they are showing some regression, whereas Cloud9 are on an opposite trajection. We like Cloud9 better for this match, but the odds are a bit too low for us to take this bet.
FlyQuest vs Team Liquid
Sunday, July 4 – 16:00 PDT
FlyQuest held on well against 100 Thieves yesterday and were quite competitive for the first 15 minutes of the game. They took a drake and Harold, which is definitely worth some praise, but they soon found themselves on the back foot and ended up losing with quite a significant 10.6k gold deficit and 8-14 in kills.
FlyQuest got their hands on Gwen, which definitely helped them look better, and it was interesting to see a Fiddlestick pick for the jungle, which shows that FlyQuest are at least trying something new to try and dig themselves out of the hole they’re in.
Team Liquid enters this match on a three-game losing streak, with losses to TSM, 100 Thieves, and Cloud9. As bad as their run may seem, it’s important to consider that Liquid lost to the top-three teams in the league but are now set to face the second-to-last team in North America.
There’s no hiding that Liquid haven’t been playing as well as they have last split, but you can’t really say that they’re weaker than FlyQuest. Sure, FlyQuest have shown some improvement, but they’re still one of the bottom three teams in the league and are now even close to the level of LCS’ top dogs in C9, Liquid, EG, 100T…
Team Liquid enters this match priced as 1.323 favorites (Pinnacle), which is about fair. They’re overall a much better team, and they shouldn’t be losing against teams like FlyQuest. There, however, is no value at this price, and I would definitely not back the favourites with a 7.5 kill handicap as this is a very high number for how close LCS games have been.
You could make a case for Liquid to crush this game, as they look to bounce back from their losing streak, but that’s a poor excuse to take Liquid at such a high kill handicap.
Dignitas vs Immortals
Sunday, July 4 – 17:00 PDT
Dignitas won two in a row against TSM and Golden Guardians to improve their record to 17-15 on the season. They’re still far from reaching the top-five, and given the quality gap between the top five teams and the rest, it’s unlikely they will ever manage to break the barrier.
Although DIG won both of their last two outings, they weren’t particularly impressive. In their game against Golden Guardians, Dignitas got ahead early held a substantial lead heading into the mid-late game.
Then they stumbled and came extremely close to losing – which they would have had they not stolen the Baron in the 29th minute. It was a solid comeback but a somewhat undeserved win.
Immortals looked extremely good early into the season, for which I praised them numerous times. However, they are now on a three-game losing streak with losses against 100 Thieves, Cloud9, and TSM.
Given the quality of the teams IMT had to face, I wouldn’t overreact to their losing streak, even though I expected them to perform better than how they did. At the same time, beating 100T isn’t easy, and you can’t blame them for dropping the ball against the surging C9 either.
Yesterday, IMT lost to TSM, who had a perfect plan of shutting Immortals down before they could start scaling and stacking drakes. That game was lost very early on since Immortals had no way of getting back into the game after being two drakes and +3k gold down at 14 minutes, so props to TSM for hitting IMT where it hurt – the question is whether Dignitas can do the same tonight.
This match is tough to call, as it seems like a complete coin flip. Dignitas have looked better of late and could potentially upset Immortals, however, the latter have been more consistent throughout the split. We’re passing on this one.
Betting odds are correct as of Sunday, July 4, at 20:20 CEST.