Betting-Previews.com returns with weekly League of Legends betting coverage for the opening day of LCS 2021 Summer Week 7.
LCS Summer Week 7 – Day 1
When: Friday, July 16 – 15:00 – 19:00 PDT
Number of Games: 5
LCS is quite an interesting league to follow this season, as there are only two teams – Evil Geniuses and 100 Thieves – who you can trust to deliver. The remaining eight seem equally as capable of winning as they are to losing to anyone. But it’s not as simple to pick out a winner as following that, as there are definitely some stylistic differences between the teams that need to be taken into consideration.
Cloud9 vs Immortals
Friday, July 16 – 15:00 PDT
Immortals lost to Evil Geniuses, Team Liquid and FlyQuest last week, and are now 8-10 on the season; whereas Cloud9 won against Dignitas, but lost to FlyQuest and Evil Geniuses, who handed them their ninth loss of the split on Sunday.
Cloud9 now sport a fitting 9-9 record on the summer split, and are 22-14 on the season, which is definitely not where Cloud9 expected to be, with only three more weeks separating them from the 2021 LCS Championship.
The urgency to deliver and start winning is there, but this is not a narrative I’m ready to follow. Yes, Cloud9 are in desperate need of wins if they wish to end the split as a top-two seed, but wanting to deliver and actually being capable of doing so are two completely different things.
As suspicious as we can be about Cloud9 and their recent showings, we have to consider the quality of the team they’re facing. Immortals looked very competitive early into the season and seemed like one of the top-five teams in the league. They’re not like that anymore.
Last week, Immortals lost all three of their games against Evil Geniuses, Team Liquid and FlyQuest, which isn’t a good look. Although losing to EG isn’t that surprising, Immortals haven’t played well against either Liquid or FlyQuest.
If we look at the numbers from the last three round-robin, Immortals averaged some of the worst numbers in Gold Spent Percentage Difference (-5.3% GSPD) and in Gold Percentage Rating (-0.63 GPD), which rank them as the third-and second-worst team in the league.
Putting too much emphasis on the recent results can be dangerous as it does not take into account teams’ draft experimentations, roster changes, and the natural variance of the player’s performance on the day. The eye test would prove that Cloud9 are the most likely victors despite their somewhat iffy showings.
The thing with Cloud9 is that they have a much bigger upside, and while they might be struggling at the moment, this team is capable of defeating anyone if and when they finally figure things out. As appealing as a bet on Immortals (3.050 at Pinnacle) might seem, I wouldn’t bet on a team that has regressed as much as Immortals did.
At this price, you could even argue that Cloud9 (1.389 Pinnacle) are undervalued.
TSM vs FlyQuest
Friday, July 16 – 16:00 PDT
The big question you need to answer for this match is how much much should we value FlyQuest’s last three outings. Three games are definitely not enough to properly assess how strong a team is, but those are the only three games we have for our sample size.
FlyQuest won against Cloud9, Counter Logic Gaming and Immortals last week with fairly solid showings. I liked FlyQuest’s unique drafts, namely Jhin as an ADC and Blitzcrank as a support. Although those are not meta picks currently, it’s exciting and refreshing to see that FlyQuest are trying something new, which realistically is the only thing a team that is 6-12 on the summer season can do at this point.
TSM have had some very suspicious drafts of late and somewhat unconvincing showings. They are still one of the top-four teams, but not necessarily because they play like a top-four team, but because the rest of the league is worse than them.
A BIG issue I have with TSM is their unpredictability. Then they play out their games the way LoL should be played; they will look good, but then there will be days when TSM opt into some weird and suboptimal draft and start making bizarre late-game decisions that eventually lead to their doom.
I can understand why some people would like FlyQuest in this spot, but that’s mostly a result of over-exaggeration of their perfect 3-0 from last week. It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking a team is now capable of beating anyone just because of their win streak, and it’s comforting to believe an underdog can upset the most successful team in the LCS.
I don’t believe FlyQuest are good enough to defeat TSM, while I can confidently say that TSM can be terrible enough on any given day to lose to FlyQuest. TSM are the only bet I would be comfortable taking, but this is a no-bet for me at 1.520.
100 Thieves vs Dignitas
Friday, July 16 – 17:00 PDT
You usually want to look at the games from the underdogs perspective – what can they do to upset the favourites and whether they have a realistic chance to find go. For this match, this process was quite simple.
100 Thieves (1.275 Pinnacle) have better players in all positions, are a much more organised team and play teamfights with more precision than Dignitas (3.810 Pinnacle). The betting odds show just how far apart these two LCS teams are, and it’s challenging to make a solid case for the outsiders to upset the odds.
As noted, raw performance numbers shouldn’t be overvalued, but let’s compare Dignitas to 100T based on their GPR and GSPD metrics. Across the last three LCS 2021 Summer round robins, Dignitas averaged -0.17 GPR (Gold Percentage Rating) and -0.3% GSPD (Gold Spend Percentage Difference), whereas 100T posted the league’s highest 1.22 GPR and second-highest 9.1% GSPD.
Additionally, 100T rank significantly higher than Dignitas in both the early game rating (62.1 – 47.9 EGR) and mid-late game rating (15.6 – -3.4 MLR). There’s no single metric where Dignitas are even close to 100T and shows on the Summoner’s Rift.
Dignitas should have no business winning here, but considering the high number of power picks in LoL 11.13 patch, I would not consider a bet on the favourites at this price, nor would I recommend betting on the favourites with such a high kill handicap.
Counter Logic Gaming vs Team Liquid
Friday, July 16 – 18:00 PDT
Counter Logic Gaming replaced Eugene “Pobelter” Park with Tanner “Damonte” Damonte on Tuesday in a bit to salvage something from this season. The big question is whether Damonte can save this team, and while it may be a bit too late for that, there is a world where CLG perform better today.
CLG enter this match as a 3.54 (Pinnacle) underdogs, which seems somewhat low, even though they haven’t impressed anyone of late. It’s hard to be excited about a team that is 1-5 across the last two weeks, but perhaps bringing in a new face into the roster is what CLG need to find new gear.
I’ve talked about how CLG have a talented team that is capable of a solid mid-table finish. They have yet to show that side of them, but it’s not entirely unlikely that we might see a glimpse of that today, and that’s primarily because Team Liquid haven’t been playing that well recently either.
Damonte is known for his poor laning numbers while he was at 100T, but many people seem to forget just how active he was on the map. Damonte spent little to no time in his lane and instead roamed around, helping his teammates, which just might be the approach CLG need to have to defeat Team Liquid.
Golden Guardians vs Evil Geniuses
Friday, July 16 – 19:00 PDT
The LCS saved the best for last, as two hot teams in Golden Guardians and Evil Geniuses clash on the Rift. I didn’t believe I would ever say this, but Golden Guardians are actually a good team. Now is that a long-term thing, or just a honeymoon phase, following the addition of Eric “Licorice” Ritchie… only time will tell.
Golden Guardians enter this match with some of the highest metrics in the league (across the last two weeks), which includes 6.5% GSPD, 0.88 CKPM (Combined Kills Per Minute), and 62.7 EGR. There aren’t many teams that can match them in those metrics, however, there is one team that stands tall above everyone else with their showings across the last few weeks, and that team is Evil Geniuses.
If we look back at the last three round robins, Evil Geniuses lead the league in GSPD (9.9%), GPR (1.32), EGR (68.0) and MLR (20.9) – and it’s not even close. The only team that can compete with EG in their performance numbers is 100T.
Evil Geniuses were known for losing against weaker teams, but they have seemingly improved in that department. They are on an eight-game winning streak, and it’s hard to imagine them losing another match by the end of the regular season if they continue playing this way.
There is a world where they turn into a pumpkin and return to their old ways, but I have yet to see EG struggle. It will be an exciting game, likely with plenty of kills on the board, but this is not a match I will be betting on as there is no value at these odds.
Betting Odds are correct as of Friday, July 16 at 21:50 CEST
