Betting-Previews.com bring you League of Legends betting previews and predictions for LoL Championship Series (LCS 2021 Summer Week 7, Day 2. Here are our previews with value picks.
LCS Summer Week 7 – Day 2
When: Saturday, July 17 – 15:00 – 19:00 PDT
Number of Games: 5
What a day! As soon as I go and praise 100 Thieves and Evil Geniuses as the only two teams in the LCS who I can trust to be consistent, they go on and lose against Dignitas and Evil Geniuses. Out of five underdogs on Friday, Counter Logic Gaming were the only team that couldn’t upset the favourites and remain the outlier in what is proving to be a free-for-all league where anyone can defeat anyone.
Counter Logic Gaming vs Cloud9
Saturday, July 17 – 14:00 PDT
Cloud9 lost to Immortals yesterday, which, in all fairness, wasn’t that shocking. Immortals have solid and competent players that can cause some damage; however, I wouldn’t really say that they played that well on the day.
It was a weird game throughout that just happened to end in Immortals’ favour. Some of it had to do with the team compositions, as Immortals had better scaling, but there will always be some variance tied with that… what can you do.
Cloud9 are not playing well, but their metrics are much better than what their results would suggest. I have talked about before how Cloud9’s numbers are good – they just aren’t able to show that on the Rift.
What is the reason behind that is anyone’s guess, but I would much rather take a team with solid metrics that is struggling with results now than an overperforming team whose numbers are terrible, yet they’re collecting wins.
Talking about teams with terrible performance numbers, Counter Logic Gaming are the team to look at. Not only do they fail to impress on paper CLG also struggle to deliver in games. You could make a case for CLG to win here, but that would be simply following the narrative of how good the underdogs are currently and not recognising how poor CLG are in all elements of the game.
There are definitely underdogs in the LCS who are somewhat solid and can cause an upset if the stars align. CLG are not that type of an underdog.
Cloud9 are priced as favourites (1.289 Pinnacle), while CLG enter this match as 3.68 (Pinnacle) underdogs. The odds are fair.
Team Liquid vs 100 Thieves
Saturday, July 17 – 15:00 PDT
In a surprising turn of events, 100 Thieves lost to Dignitas yesterday to add another loss to their collection of weird and hard-to-explain defeats. This team rarely loses, but when they do, it’s in a very bizarre way that shouldn’t have happened under normal circumstances.
100 Thieves lost that game with 3-13 in kills and a 6.6k gold deficit. Three of their players ended the game without a kill, while Can “Closer” Çelik managed a perfect 0/4/0.
Team Liquid enter LCS 2021 Summer Week 7 Day 2 as the only favourite to end the previous day unharmed. They beat Counter Logic Gaming which is hardly worth celebrating, but at least they won.
Although Liquid struggled to achieve much this split, the eye test proves that this is still a solid team with strong fundamentals and the right idea of how to approach their games. That might not be the trait you would look in a team to win you the next game, but it definitely proves Liquid will be a solid team in the long run and (highly) likely compete for the title by the end of the season.
Where does that leaves us with this prediction? 100 Thieves are priced as 1.862 (Pinnacle) favourites, while Liquid enters the match as a 1.952 (Pinnacle) underdog, which seems about right. Liquid have the talent to win here; however, 100T have been more consistent throughout the season.
If you had to take a side, it would be 100 Thieves, but they have been showing weaknesses (especially on the top side), and if there is one team that can exploit that, it’s Liquid. A 50/50 match.
TSM vs Immortals
Saturday, July 17 – 16:00 PDT
TSM lost to FlyQuest on Friday in the “TSM Style”. They were in full control of the match and should have easily won, but then they engaged in a very questionable teamfight which cost them the game. Any team is capable of terrible calls, but if it’s happening that frequently, you have to ask yourself who is making these calls and why aren’t TSM learning anything from it.
Poor decision making like that definitely doesn’t mean TSM are a terrible team; however, they will lose games which they shouldn’t have, so it isn’t easy to trust them when priced as the favourites. At the same time, I wouldn’t blindly bet against them, hoping that they blunder their games.
As noted TSM were the better team on the day, but they were facing FlyQuest, which isn’t that big of an achievement.
Immortals enter this match as a 2.410 (Pinnacle) underdog, which makes sense. They haven’t been playing well of late and while I still view them as a competent team, Immortals aren’t at the level of the top LCS teams in 100T, EG, Team Liquid, C9, and TSM.
I could see TSM struggle against Immortals, who should prove to be a much tougher opponent than FlyQuest, and there is a world where Immortals stun TSM, but this is not the right price to bet on them. I would require to see at least 2.60 to take Immortals.
Dignitas vs Golden Guardians
Saturday, July 17 – 17:00 PDT
Dignitas stunned 100 Thieves yesterday while Golden Guardians obliterated Evil Geniuses. As two underdogs who took down two of the best LCS teams, the spotlight is now on this match to see which of the two can become the unofficial best team in the league.
The betting odds on this match make completely no sense, as you can’t explain why are Dignitas are priced as the favourites. They haven’t been playing better than Golden Guardians; they haven’t produced better metrics, and they haven’t shown as much improvement as Golden Guardians.
Dignitas have had some solid showings on the season, but those were very rare relative to Golden Guardians, who have been consistently good and seemed far more organised on the Rift. The eye test and metrics bot disagree with the bookmakers and the odds.
Note that the odds have since shifted – Golden Guardians are no longer the underdogs – Golden Guardians were at 1.93.
FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses
Saturday, July 17 – 18:00 PDT
FlyQuest won against TSM yesterday, but as noted, it was more of a gifted win rather than a well-earned one. It’s interesting to see how FlyQuest have managed to keep their win streak alive even though you could argue that they haven’t deserved to win half of those games.
FlyQuest are now on a four-game winning streak and will take on Evil Geniuses, who fell against Golden Guardians after winning eight straight games. It’s easy to overreact to one match result, but it’s hard to view FlyQuest as a team that can defeat Evil Geniuses.
FlyQuest are priced as a 2.590 (Pinnacle) underdog, while Evil Geniuses sit at 1.510 (Pinnacle). The betting odds on FlyQuest have dropped from 3.09 (opening odds on July 12) and have been dropping ever since their win against TSM. This is a prime example of overreaction to one good game.
Had EG not slipped against Golden Guardians yesterday and had FlyQuest not stole a win from TSM, the betting odds wouldn’t be nearly as close as they are now. Take EG at 1.51.
Betting Odds are correct as of Saturday, July 17 at 21:30 CEST
