Betting-Previews.com returns with League of Legends betting overage for the LoL Championship Series (LCS) 2021 Summer. Today, we take a look at the final five games of LCS 2021 Summer Week 7, marking the final round of play before the league enters the penultimate week of the summer season.
LCS Summer Week 7 – Day 3
When: Sunday, July 18 – 13:00 – 17:00 PDT
Number of Games: 5
We went two-for-two with our LoL LCS Summer Week 7 – Day 2, which was a nice way to end the day after Fnatic delivered against G2 Esports over in the LoL European Championship (LEC).
Immortals vs Counter Logic Gaming
Sunday, July 18 – 13:00 PDT
Counter Logic Gaming got wholly obliterated by Cloud9, who handed them their fourth consecutive loss and their 28th defeat of the season. CLG are now at 10-28 on the 2021 season, meaning that they’re theoretically still in the race for a spot in the playoffs, but it’s fair to say that this team won’t finish any higher than where they are now.
Like CLG, Immortals lost to TSM yesterday, however, they can feel comfortable with the position they’re now in. With a 16-22 record, immortals are all but guaranteed to finish inside the top-eight and could potentially push for top-six; however, they first need to overtake Dignitas (19-19).
But we’ll keep the talk about the playoffs for later and will instead focus on the match at hand.
Both teams are 1-4 in their last five, so it’s fair to say that neither is in great form. However, if we look at the summer season as a whole, Immortals have been far more consistent with their showings and have had higher highs on the season. However, they weren’t as convincing of late.
Had these teams been playing at their best, Immortals would win, but I’m not too fond of either side at the offered odds in the state they’re currently in. I prefer Immortals but not enough to take them at 1.574.
TSM vs Team Liquid
Sunday, July 18 – 14:00 PDT
TSM enter this match as 1.833 (Pinnacle) favourites, while Liquid are priced as high as 1.990 (Pinnacle) to claim their 24th victory of the 2021 season. As it stands now, TSM are ranked second in league with 25-13, while Liquid are tied in third with Cloud9, Evil Geniuses at 23-15.
If we look solely at the record of the summer season, Liquid are at 11-9, while TSM are 13-9. Out of the two, TSM have been more consistent, keeping their spot inside the top-three since the LCS 2021 Summer began, while Liquid were at one point tied for sixth and have since slowly climbed their way up.
As that would suggest, Team Liquid are improving, which I have already mentioned in yesterday’s LCS 2021 Summer betting preview. TSM, meanwhile, have not shown any improvement, nor have they regressed.
I have talked about TSM’s weaknesses before, mainly their poor decision-making and unmatched ability to throw away their games. While it’s hard to justify fading a team just based on that, it’s definitely something to keep in mind when TSM are priced as betting favourites for their LCS matches.
Liquid lost to 100 Thieves yesterday in quite a dominating fashion. I have noted how Liquid could potentially exploit 100T’s top side, which is a plan they would have worked had 100T not foreseen that and put Kim “Ssumday” Chan-ho on tank duty, which I suspect will be their gameplan against LCS top teams.
I would have considered Team Liquid as a bet here had they performed better yesterday. They were outclassed by 100T, which was expected, but it was the way in which they ended up losing that does not inspire much confidence.
It’s also worth noting that TSM will have side selection for this match, meaning that they’ll likely go for the blue side as their preferred position (8-4). Since these are two equally matched teams, the draft will play a crucial factor, which introduces enough variance for me to stay clear of betting on this game.
Evil Geniuses vs Dignitas
Sunday, July 18 – 15:00 PDT
Evil Geniuses secured a comfortable win yesterday against FlyQuest, which shouldn’t surprise anyone. Although they slipped against Golden Guardians on Friday, EG are still one of the top-two teams in the league – and you can’t really blame anyone for losing against GG with the form they have been showing of late.
Dignitas lost against Golden Guardians yesterday in what was a fairly straightforward win for GG. If you would go and check Team Gold Advantage in that game, Dignitas were in the lead for about 90% of the game, but you should keep in mind that gold leads alone don’t mean much.
It may look good on paper that you have 2.7k gold more in the pocket than your opponent; however, that hasn’t helped Dignitas, who were at that point 0-3 in drakes. In short, it wasn’t a good macro showing from Dignitas.
Evil Geniuses enter this match as a 1.416 favourite (Pinnacle) which seems about right. They have been a more consistent and overall much better team than Dignitas throughout the LCS 2021 Summer, which is particularly noticeable in the metrics across the last three outings.
EG have been averaging the highest Gond Percentage Rating (2.03 GPR) in the league, the fourth-highest Gond Spend Percentage Difference (8.6% GSPD), as well as the highest early-game rating (26.6 EGR). Dignitas have averaged -1.19 GPR, -1.6% GSPD, and 26.6 EGR.
Evil Geniuses could end up losing here if they draft extremely poorly, but I wouldn’t count on that happening. Dignitas will likely pick Ziggs and Kayne, which are two champions EG should be able to counter with their champion pools, so I wouldn’t be too concerned with their chances.
FlyQuest vs 100 Thieves
Sunday, July 18 – 16:00 PDT
I don’t feel like there is much explaining needed for this match. FlyQuest were clearly too overhyped ahead of their game against Evil Geniuses, and after that loss, it should become evident that this team isn’t at the level of EG, and consequently, not at the level of 100 Thieves.
As mentioned yesterday, 100T very rarely lose, but when they do, it’s in a bizarre way that isn’t easy to explain. If you follow that narrative, FlyQuest should be capable of upsetting the current no.1 in the LCS; however, a lot will have to go wrong for 100T to end up with an L here.
Lane-by-lane, 100 Thieves are significantly better than FlyQuest and are in a much better spot in all metrics across the season. If we look only at the last six outings, 100T managed LCS’s highest GPR (1.99), GSPD (15.6%), the second-highest EGR (70.6), and by far the highest MLR (29.4).
FlyQuest, meanwhile, are one of the lowest-rated team in all those metrics, with -1.22 GPR, -14.6% GSPD, 36.3 EGR, and -36.3. Those are the second-lowest metrics in the league, except for MLR, where FlyQuest are firmly the worst-rated team in the league.
100 Thieves are priced at 1.370 (Pinnacle), which seems about right, while I wouldn’t recommend a -7.5 kill handicap bet either, as the final kill score will be way too reliant on FlyQuest’s draft and their approach to the game. FlyQuest might not be good, but they have proven that they can keep their games close – can they do the same against 100T, is another question.
Golden Guardians vs Cloud9
Sunday, July 18 – 17:00 PDT
Golden Guardians continue to surge and enter this match on a three-game winning streak. Yesterday they took down Dignitas thanks to better macro play, having previously outclassed Evil Geniuses and Team Liquid.
At this point, it’s time to accept that Golden Guardians’ wins weren’t flukes. Golden Guardians are 9-11 on the season, while Cloud9 are 10-10, which isn’t something I expected to see heading into this split, but that’s where we’re now.
What I like the most about Golden Guardians is their drafting. This team is ready to pick whatever they believe will suit them, which could be a massive advantage against teams that don’t have deep champion pools.
Yesterday, GG picked Tahm Kench as a flex pick to bait Dignitas and gained draft edges. Seeing GG get draft edges like that to suggest that they could out draft Cloud9 here, which is essentially the only way GG can upset the reigning LCS champions.
I considered taking a smaller position on Golden Guardians here (0.5 units) since you could justify the bet at the offered odds. That said, Cloud9’s metrics on the season indicate that they are “sleeping giants” who are playing well but are just not getting the results they should.
There is no reason to back Golden Guardians here, especially against a team that is averaging some of the best metrics in the league. The results are not there yet for Cloud9, but I value their performance numbers more than what their record shows.
