Betting-Previews.com brings you League of Legends betting previews and predictions for the final day of LoL LCS 2021 Summer Week 8. With seven teams already locked in for the playoffs, FlyQuest, Golden Guardians, and Counter Logic Gaming will now battle it out for the final spot leading into the postseason, which should see them up their game as the 2021 season slowly comes to a close.
LCS Summer Week 8 – Day 3
When: Sunday, July 25 – 13:00 – 17:00 PDT
Number of Games: 5
Evil Geniuses stumbled against Immortals yesterday, which wasn’t the best way to start the day; however, Counter Logic Gaming and Dignitas both delivered, securing us a marginal profit with our LoL LCS Summer Week 8 – Day 2 selection. For today, we have three picks for you to look at, so without further ado, let’s jump right in.
Team Liquid vs Golden Guardians
Sunday, July 25 – 13:00 PDT
Team Liquid got humiliated by Dignities yesterday and continue to prove that something isn’t clicking. This is still a good team, but they definitely aren’t great, and unless we see some improvement asap, Liquid might even miss out on LoL World Championship – which is becoming a harsh reality closer we get to the LCS Championship.
Yesterday I wrote:
“GG are very effective in the early game, so there is a world where gain early leads, and then throw it all away in the mid-late game,” which is what happened. However, I wouldn’t criticise GG too much for that.
The main reason is the stylistic matchup of that game. TSM are in many ways similar to GG, particularly when it comes to their focus on neutral objectives; however, they’re much more efficient when it comes to mid-late game objective control.
That was basically a match between two teams with the same plan; only that one team has significantly better individual players. Golden Guardians are still playing solid league, and while they might blunder their mid-late game, the early leads they gain by securing Heralds and drakes make them a solid punch-up underdog.
Golden Guardians enter this match as 3.30 (Pinnacle) underdogs, which underestimates them quite a bit. Team Liquid should be the favourites, but they haven’t produced anything for me to say that they should be priced at only 1.343.
I like a smaller bet on Golden Guardians to defeat Team Liquid, as well as a +7.5 kill handicap bet on the outsiders.
Immortals vs 100 Thieves
Sunday, July 25 – 14:00 PDT
Immortals locked in their spot in the playoffs with a win against Evil Geniuses yesterday and are now only one win short of catching up to Dignitas and securing an upper-bracket seeding. Immortals will surely want to finish the regular season in sixth, as it would allow them to lose one match in the playoffs, so they might be a bit more motivated to deliver tonight.
Immortals’ win against Evil Geniuses is very impressive on paper, but it mostly had to do with the draft difference. For some unknown reason, Evil Geniuses allowed Immortals to counter pick them in the mid lane and bottom lane, which eventually led to their doom.
Still, despite the handicap, Evil Geniuses held on well and even held the match in their own hands for most of the early-mid game. The main thing to take away from that match is EG getting out to a 4400 gold lead despite their bottom lane getting smacked around, so while Immortals ended up winning, I wouldn’t say that they played well.
Had EG drafted better, Immortals would get stomped into the dirt, so I would be cautious not to overreact to Immortals beating one of the top-two teams in the league. What I’m trying to say here is that I don’t expect Immortals to be just as successful against 100T.
I have talked about how 100 Thieves stagnated a bit, but they’re still a better team than Immortals, and I have no issues seeing them priced as 1.366 (Pinnacle) favourites for this match. 100 Thieves need this win to stay atop the standings, and with the talent they have, they should get the job done.
I wouldn’t bet on either team here since the odds are fair; however, I like under 25.5 kills at 1.83 (Bet365).
TSM vs Cloud9
Sunday, July 25 – 15:00 PDT
Cloud9 continue to improve, which is something I expected to see from them as we get closer to the playoffs. Cloud9 enter this match as 1.847 (Pinnacle) favourites, while TSM are priced as 1.980 (Pinnacle) underdogs, which seems fair.
Although TSM have been a more successful team this term, they have had a few lucky wins. At the same time, you have to acknowledge TSM’s strong objective control – 57% Dragon control, 55.6% Herald Control and the league’s best 71.9% Baron Control.
In comparison, Cloud9 hold a 52.3% Drake Control, 47.8% Herald Control, and the league’s fourth-best 54.8% Baron Control.
Although TSM are more efficient in securing neutral objectives, they’re still far behind Cloud9 in all other metrics. The moneyline price seems just about where it should be, which is why I won’t side with either team here.
One thing that has caught my attention, however, is the total kill line. If we look at Cloud9’s last four outings, their games ended in 24 (vs Counter Logic gaming), 31 (vs Golden Guardians), 32 (100 Thieves), and 19 (vs FlyQuest) kills.
On the other side, TSM’s last four ended in 31 (vs Immortals), 16 (vs Team Liquid), 20 (vs Evil Geniuses), and 32 (vs Golden Guardians) kills.
The averages would suggest that this bout will easily reach past 25 kills; however, we have to take into account which teams these two had to face. Across the last two round robins, TSM average only 0.67 Combined Kills Per Minute (CKPM), while Cloud9 average 0.76 CKPM, which are ninth- and fifth-highest metrics in the league.
Evil Geniuses vs Counter Logic Gaming
Sunday, July 25 – 16:00 PDT
As talked about above, Evil Geniuses lost against Immortals after blundering their draft. They got counter picked in mid (LeBlanc vs Ryze) and bottom lane (Aphelios/Tahm Kench vs Draven/Thresh).
To no one’s surprise EG’s bottom lane got completely obliterated, ending the match with a combined score of 0/6/0, while Draven/Thresh ended with a 4/0/20. Similarly, LeBlanc wasn’t able to make much happen against Ryze, especially once Ryze picked up his core items and out scaled everyone on the Rift.
Evil Geniuses’ coach Peter Dun has unveiled that EG had some issues with the pick/ban phase, which is unfortunate. Immortals’ coach responded that Immortals had some issues with the pick/ban phase as well, with one of their players DC-ing. Which side of the story you want to believe is up to you, but it really doesn’t matter.
Regardless of the “draft diff” in that game, Evil Geniuses played extremely well. As mentioned above, they managed to grab a +4400 gold lead despite their bottom lane running it down, which speaks volumes of this team’s quality.
Similarly, I was impressed with Counter Logic Gaming’s showing yesterday. They might have lost, but it was a solid effort from them that becomes that much more impressive if you consider all the internal issues CLG have been dealing with.
CLG are showing a lot of character and willpower to keep on pushing, which I must respect. At the same time, we have to realise how huge the quality gap is between these two teams.
Had CLG not been facing EG, I would consider betting on them as an underdog (at the right price), but 3.350 (Pinnacle) seems fair. EG should smash.
FlyQuest vs Dignitas
Sunday, July 25 – 17:00 PDT
FlyQuest’s game plan of securing early Heralds and snowball has worked for a while, but if you do the same thing over and over again, you’re bound to get figured out – which is exactly what has happened yesterday.
FlyQuest lost to the surging Cloud9 with 3-16 in kills and a 13.8k gold deficit. It was a complete stomp, but I can’t say I was shocked to see it. FlyQuest aren’t that good, especially now that they got figured out, and people are slowly starting to realise how they want to play their games.
With that loss, FlyQuest are now on a four-game losing streak, yet they still enter this match as a 1.704 favourite (Pinnacle). That price might seem a bit off, considering they are facing a team that stomped Team Liquid yesterday; however, there’s a good reason for it.
Dignitas might have an occasional match where they impress, but this team is very inconsistent. If we look at their last five outings, Dignitas beat 100 Thieves and Team Liquid but lost against Golden Guardians, Evil Geniuses, and Immortals.
During that stretch, Dignitas produced very underwhelming metrics, including -0.44 Gold Percent Rating (GPR), -5.0% Gold Spend Percentage Difference (GSPD), 43.7 Early-Game Rating (EGR), and -3.7 Mid-Late Game Rating (MLR).
In comparison, FlyQuest averaged the league’s lowest marks in -2.58 GPR, -16.0% GSPD, 17.7 EGR, and fourth-highest 2.3 MLR. Those metrics would suggest that FlyQuest are by far the worst team in the league – which they might be; however, most of it has to do with the teams they were facing knowing how to beat them.
FlyQuest have been struggling because they got figured out, and the teams they faced during the stretch of the last five (TSM, EG, 100T, Team Liquid, Cloud9) all knew where FlyQuest’s Achilles Heel is. This begs the question of whether Dignitas are smart enough to do the same.
They might be, but I’m not sold on Dignitas and their lack of consistency. What’s more, FlyQuest should be motivated to deliver tonight since they need to keep their distance from Golden Guardians in the standings.
Betting Odds are correct as of Sunday, July 25 at 13:40 CEST
