LOL LEC Spring Week 1 – Day 2 Betting Previews and Predictions
The opening day of League of Legends European Championship (LEC) 2021 Spring is behind us and it proved to be exactly what you could expect from January games. G2 doing G2 things, Excel winning the match – but not really, Milica throwing a 100% game for his team and Fnatic losing games they should have won.
We are now back with our free betting previews for LEC 2021 Spring Day 2 matches, where we will try to make sense of the chaos that has happened on the Rift yesterday.
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Schalke 04 vs Excel Esports
Saturday, January 23 – 17:00 CET
Schalke 04 won their opening match of the split against Vitality even though they arguably shouldn’t have. That is not to say Schalke 04 robbed Vitality of a win, but it was instead Vitality, or more precisely their mid-laner Milica who threw a sure game out of the window and if I didn’t know better, I would say Milica was win trading.
Regardless, Vitality looked like the better team and had they put together a better draft they would have won for sure, so we have to take Schalke 04’s win with a grain of salt. It’s also worth noting that the match featured two teams with two opposite styles of play – Vitality forcing a more macro-focused game whereas Schalke 04 come off as a bit more aggressive team.
I was not particularly impressed with Gillus who has been playing way to aggressively for his own good although he had a clutch drake steal, which helped his team survive for a while longer. Besides some questionable moves from Gillus, there were some other rough spots on Schalke 04, but they did not perform particularly bad, so there is hope they can look much better down the line.
Excel, meanwhile, lost their game against Rogue in what was a fairly solid effort from the young squad. I must give them props for picking Ivern top and Udyr jungle, which shows this team has “the balls” to try something new and create advantages. The problem is, however, that the players are not skilled enough, or better yet, not practised enough on those champions to take the advantage of the position they’re in.
Excel could have beaten Rogue had they not made the crucial mistake at Baron and had their ADC Patrik put a bit more thought in his positioning. He has ended the game with 2/3/3 score which is not particularly bad, but his mistakes played a big role in Excel’s defeat.
Neither team has impressed me enough for me to say they are sure victors here, as they both had some solid and some not-so-solid moments. Excel are priced at around 2.25 to win (bet365), which is a good price to pay for a squad that will very likely outrdaft Schalke (note, they have YoungBuck as their coach) and get the needed edge to come out victorious.
The odds on this match should be much closer to even money, so we have to take the underdogs at 2.25.
Prediction: Excel Esports to win – 2.25 at Bet365
Vitality vs Misfits
Saturday, January 23 – 18:00 CET
Misfits picked up a crucial win yesterday, when they outperformed the shaky Fnatic, although I wouldn’t praise them too much, largely because that game was very low-quality. Regardless, Vetheo has looked exceptional whereas I don’t have anything bad to say about Kobbe and Razork, who both had a solid showing.
We have to consider that some of the Misfits’ players looked very good solely because Fnatic underperformed, so I would be careful when expecting another outstanding performance from Razork or Vetheo, who seem fairly equally matched with Vitality’s counterparts in Skeanz and Milica.
Only yesterday, Misfits were priced as 1.98 underdogs on Pinnacle and are now priced as a 1.75 favourite, which seems like an overreaction to one game and quite a massive one (0.23 drop). Vitality, on the other side went from a 1.85 favourite to a 2.10 underdog. We have ranked Vitality above Misfits in our LEC 2021 Spring preview and I still believe Vitality have a lot more to offer than Misfits whose only bright spot so far was a fluke win against the disoriented Fnatic.
Prediction: Vitality to win – 2.10 at Pinnacle
MAD Lions vs Astralis
Saturday, January 23 – 19:00 CET
MAD Lions had an excellent start of their match against G2 and looked like they had the game in the bag, but G2 did their typical thing and turned the game upside down. It’s quite interesting to see how G2 manage to pull these kinds of things year after year where even if they fall behind, they consistently take over the game and win.
Astralis faced SK Gaming in their season opener, where they looked very good for the first half of the game but then blundered and let their lead slip between their fingers. The main thing to take from that game is that it was not good gameplay from either side, which only confirms our LEC 2021 Spring season rankings, where we had both SK and Astralis very low.
In short, Astralis left the impression that they’re going to be a very bad team. That is not to say MAD Lions produced something remarkable in their game against G2, but considering they outpaced the reigning champions in the early game, we can expect MAD will see the same amount of success against Astralis, who I am giving no chance to come back from an early deficit.
It is, however, very early into the season, so there is a chance where Astralis shock everyone or at least keep this match close. A +8.5 kill handicap on the underdogs seems like a good bet for this meta (low number of kills) but we will skip on it for now.
No Prediction
G2 Esports vs SK Gaming
Saturday, January 23 – 20:00 CET
I had some hope for SK Gaming heading into the 2021 season, but after their performances against Astralis, my perception of this team has lowered for quite a bit. Without going into too much detail what has happened in G2’s and SK’s first game of the season, I will get straight to the point.
I don’t believe G2 will lose, however, there is a slight chance we might see a close game and let me explain why.
Jenax is a solid top laner who should do fine against Wunder, and I feel the same about the jungle matchup, where I can even see TynX outperforming Jankos, if SK put together a strong draft. SK’s success will come down to whether Blue can hold his own against Caps and defend against the mid pushes, whereas Jezu and Treatz will likely have a hard time in the bottom lane, even though I wouldn’t count on Mikyx and Rekkles to completely stomping their lane.
All that, however, is hard to justify given how poorly SK have performed in their game against Astralis. They might be able to avoid a complete stop (kill-wise), but I don’t believe SK have the tools to do much damage or even drag this game out enough to outscale G2, given that they draft a more late-game comp.
Pinnacle offers 1.90 on this game ending with under 27.5 kills, which is a bit too generous for the current meta. Out of five games played yesterday, only two have exceeded 27 kills in total and even those were the clown fiesta between Fnatic and Misfits, and G2’s win over MAD Lions.
Prediction: Under 27.5 kills – 1.900 at Pinnacle
Fnatic vs Rogue
Saturday, January 23 – 21:00 CET
Despite Fnatic’s disastrous showing on day one, I still believe this team has the needed quality to compete for the LEC title. That said, I don’t expect any outstanding performances from them anytime soon, and especially not today.
Fnatic struggled against Misfits yesterday, both with the individual performances (mainly Bwipo) and their overall approach to the game. It seemed like Fnatic changed their gameplan for 2021 in favour of a more aggressive playstyle where they look to gain advantages by outplaying their opponents rather than focusing on the greater picture.
That is something that has worked for G2 before, but I don’t see whether Fnatic are the right team for this style. The main reason why I am not too concerned with Fnatic in the long run is their coaching staff, which should make the needed adjustment to help their squad rise, but as mentioned above, I don’t expect any massive changes on such short notice.
Rogue had their standard game against Excel and even though they could have easily lost it, I was not particularly disappointed with Rogue’s showings but was rather impressed with Excel’s.
Rogue to score at least 13 kills against the disorganised Fnatic is a good bet, but if we believe they will reach such a high number of kills in the current meta, it’s only fair to assume they can also win. At this price, we have to take Rogue.
Prediction: Rogue to win 1.98 at Pinnacle
That concludes our LEC 2021 Spring Day 2 betting previews and predictions. Counter-Strike: Global Offensive BLAST Premier: Global Finals 2020 predictions coming soon so stay tuned.
