LOL LEC Spring Week 1 – Day 3 Betting Previews and Predictions
We had an excellent day yesterday with all four of our free League of Legends betting predictions hitting the mark and we will now look to keep the momentum going with our 2021 LEC Spring Day 3 betting tips and predictions.
This is the last set of free LEC betting predictions for this split, as we will instead focus on sending out only bets to our premium members. If you wish to continue betting with us, follow us at BetMarkets or become one of our premium members.
Vitality vs Astralis
Sunday, January 24 – 17:00 CET
As we have expected, Astralis struggled to keep up the pace with MAD Lions yesterday. They fell behind early into the game and were unable to get back on their feet, which eventually resulted in a commanding victory for the MAD Lions. Having said that, I was impressed by how much Astralis managed to ourdraft MAD Lions, but even that compliment is a double-edged sword as it shows that Astralis lack the quality to use their advantages.
Vitality bounced back from a shock loss against Schalke 04 on the first day of the split with a fairly convincing win against Misfits. Milica has somewhat redeemed himself with his performance that day and we also have to give some props to Skeanz who played a big role in Vitality’s win.
Based on what we have seen so far, I rank Vitality a few tiers above Astralis, but at 1.485 (Pinnacle), they’re not worth a bet for us. A -4.5 kill handicap is another bet that might appeal to some, but I would be very careful about a kill handicap, largely because Astralis are a team that can outdraft Vitality, which will force the French squad to play a more macro-focused game.
An optional bet would be under 28.5 kills, but due to the volatility of these early-season fixtures and the low price (1.43), we are skipping it.
Rogue vs SK Gaming
Sunday, January 24 – 18:00 CET
The odds on SK Gaming to win this match sit at around 4.07 which seems about fair even though they haven’t looked that bad in their bout with G2 Esports yesterday. I must admit SK are playing much better than expected, however, I wouldn’t value their performance against G2 too highly largely because SK had a better draft and the fact that G2 did “G2 things” i.e. looked worse for almost the entirety of the game but still managed to win.
Rogue look very sharp so far this season and I have no reason to believe they can lose here. A -7.5 kill handicap at 1.806 is very appealing, but I have some concerns that steer me away from it.
First of all, Rogue are not your typical aggressive team and only seem that way when they are faced with an aggressive side where they are forced to match their playstyle. The second thing is the newly introduced Ivern top lane meta, which is something I can imagine SK using to slow down the game in situations where they’re clearly outmatched.
If we see more Ivern in LEC games, betting on unders might become our thing, but for now, it’s impossible to say whether the “Green Father” will find its permanent place in the European league nor whether we will see SK draft him for this match.
MAD Lions vs Misfits Gaming
Sunday, January 24 – 19:00 CET
Team Vitality put Misfits Gaming in their place yesterday and proved to everyone just how over-hyped the Bunnies were after their win over the disorganized Fnatic. MAD Lions, meanwhile, handled Astralis with ease, which has earned them their first win of the season although I wouldn’t value that win too highly since they were facing… well Astralis.
The problem when predicting this match is that we didn’t see enough from either side so far. Misfits claimed a fluke win against Fnatic but got stomped by Vitality, whereas MAD looked decent against G2 and bested Astralis, who look like the worst team in the league.
As talked about in our LEC 2021 Spring preview, Misfits are a team that is very difficult to figure out. They don’t look good, but unlike most other teams that fall into the same category, they have the tools to prove us wrong.
Both teams are a bit hit-or-miss, but I wouldn’t say this is a 50/50 game, but more like a 60/40 or 65/35 in favor of MAD Lions, so I don’t have a problem with the offered odds. That said, there is a world where Misfits put up enough resistance to make this bout close and since MAD know “they’re the better team” I expect them to approach this game with the mindset “we are better, we can take any fight”; which should result in a fairly bloody match.
I believe Misfits can win, but I won’t be betting on them here.
Prediction: Over 23.5 kills – 1.719 at Pinnacle
Fnatic vs Schalke 04
Sunday, January 24 – 20:00 CET
Fnatic performed better in their loss against Rogue yesterday, but not good enough for me to say they’re sure to win this match, even though they’re facing Schalke 04 who enter this match off two “clown fiestas”.
As talked about yesterday, Fnatic have started playing far more aggressively in a way that they tend to take any fight they can get. This might work against weaker sides who won’t be able to match them on the individual level but will see them struggle against stronger teams. That, however, is not a compliment of Fnatic’s playstyle but rather a way to say they will likely coin-flip most of their games.
The way Fnatic have been playing so far they shouldn’t be priced at 1.448 against any team in the league. That makes Schalke 04 a great longshot bet, but I won’t be siding with them since they are not too far from being billed as a “complete mess” as well.
Pinnacle offers 1.740 on Schalke 04 to secure at least 11 kills, which is a bet we are comfortable taking. They have good enough players to fight anyone and since they are facing the disorganized overly-aggressive Fnatic, the Germans should be in a great position to end the match with at least double digits.
Prediction: Schalke 04 over 10.5 kills – 1.740
Excel vs G2 Esports
Sunday, January 24 – 21:00 CET
Excel hasn’t looked all that impressive, but once again we have to give them props for their drafting, which indicates they have a good read on the meta and a good plan how to approach their games. G2 esports, on the other side, while a better team individually, don’t possess those qualities which suggests this match can be much closer than what the odds suggest.
I’m not trying to say Excel will win, largely because I still see them making some silly mistakes, but I have to note they come off as the type of a team that will rarely give up large leads. In other words, Excel are a very composed and organized squad that don’t panic when behind and instead look to make small steps to catch up with their opponents.
Even though G2 are a better team, I don’t expect a completely one-sided affair. Excel have shown enough for me to trust them they won’t fall behind in kills too much and will either keep it close until the end or perhaps even find a way to outsmart G2 and steal the W.
Prediction: Excel Esports +8.5 kills – 2.07 at Pinnacle
This concludes our 2021 LEC Spring Day 3 betting preview. You can find more free esports betting tips on our website or become our premium member to receive premium tips for LoL and CS:GO.