LOL LEC Spring Week 2 – Day 2 Betting Previews and Predictions
Excel Esports vs Astralis
Saturday, January 30 – at 17:00 CET
Excel enter their fifth match of the split straight off a painful loss against MAD Lions, who more or less won the game just seven minutes in by securing two kills on Xayah. That’s not to say Excel played particularly poorly, but they just couldn’t come back from the deficit their bottom lane has produced.
Their next opponents are Astralis, who share the same 1-3 record, making this a must-win bout for both sides as they look to avoid finishing the week in the last place on the leaderboard. Even though Astralis managed the same record so far, there are arguments to be made Excel field better players in all five positions and the betting odds on this match make it hard to argue Excel aren’t the favorites.
Both sides have played tough opponents so far this split, so it remains to be seen how they will perform against mid- and bottom-table squads. Objectively Astralis are the worse team, so the question here is more about how will they approach the game rather than whether they can win with their raw strength.
I can imagine Astralis winning if they decide for an easy early-game draft and put pressure on Excel early on. That said, I can’t trust Astralis to do what they’re supposed to do.
Another thing worth considering is Astralis’ high average score in their games (Kills+deaths) which sits at 27.75 (fourth-highest in the league), but I wouldn’t put too much weight on that since that number is inflated after their 47-kill game against G2.
Misfits Gaming vs SK Gaming
Saturday, January 30 – at 18:00 CET
I did not need long after seeing SK Gaming’s draft against Schalke 04 to figure out how that game will go. In other terms, their draft yesterday was as bad as it can get which leaves me concerned about SK and their long-term success, granted we had them very low on our pre-season rankings.
And it’s not only SK’s draft that concerns me, but also their playstyle. Jezu’s positioning as an ADC was atrocious, whereas I don’t have anything positive to say about his support Treatz either. That game was arguably the worst quality of play we have seen so far and that mostly comes from the side of SK.
Misfits should win this match more times than not, largely because they have a massive advantage in the bottom lane, but as for the other four matchups, I could argue SK’s players are about at the same level – except for maybe the jungle, where Razork has a much higher ceiling.
That said, Misfits still give off an impression of a team that is extremely volatile and can lose any match due to their poor decision making. Perhaps it’s not exactly poor decision making, since Misfits seem to have a good idea how to do things, but it’s their poor execution – as seen in their match with Rogue.
This is a match I will avoid. There is a world where Misfits win with double digits, but until I see some stability from them, Misfits are not a team I would recommend betting on when they are the favorites. In underdog scenarios, however, they might be a team worth considering.
Team Vitality vs Rogue
Saturday, January 30 – at 18:00 CET
On paper, Rogue look like a team that will not lose a single match this split, but we all know that is not how League of Legends works. With that, we have already established that we believe Vitality can win, but we first need to take a look back at who the teams have faced and how they did.
Rogue enter this match off a very shaky performance against Misfits, where they should have arguably lost. That does not put them at a good start, since Vitality beat Misfits quite convincingly. What’s more, Vitality’s 1-3 record is not too fair considering their performances.
Besides their incredible performance against Misfits – who are looking like one of the top-four teams in the league – Vitality shouldn’t have lost against Astralis last week and that’s just facts. So if we act like Vitality beat Astralis, this is now a 2-2 team that has beaten Misfits, who looked better than Rogue yesterday.
If we compare the teams lane-by-lane, Szygenda should do fine against Odoamne, even though the latter is a far more experienced player and much of the same holds true for the Milica vs Larssen matchup in the mid-lane. Jungle matchup should be in favor of Rogue, which is also true for the bot side, although the gap is much smaller.
There is definitely a world were we could see an upset, making Vitality a great longshot pick at 3.75, but for the sake of this prediction, we will go after Vitality with a +7.5 kill handicap. The main reason being that Rogue have managed to win their games with an average of only eight kills leads, and if we ignore their clown fiesta against Fnatic (24-10), that number suddenly shows only six kill lead on average.
Prediction: Team Vitality +7.5 kills – 1.84 at Pinnacle
Schalke 04 vs G2 Esports
Saturday, January 30 – at 19:00 CET
G2 Esports enter this match off a very confusing match against Astralis, where they should have and could have won with ease, but it seemed like they were just in to have some fun and threw themselves into Astralis to produce the highest-scoring match of the split with 47 kills across both sides.
G2 eventually won the match, but I continue to suspect G2 aren’t taking this split very seriously, which makes me very concerned about a possibility they might suffer a major upset loss. They might have the quality to bounce back after poor early game, but sooner or later, they will meet a team that will punish them for their shenanigans and steal the W.
Are Schalke 04 the type of team that can achieve something like that? Not likely.
G2 Esports should win this match 90% of the time both because they’re simply better, and also because S04 are the type of a team that will start to “int” when they’re behind – look at them as the complete opposite as Excel.
G2 Esports and Schalke 04 on average see 34 and 19.75 kills in their games with Schalke averaging only nine kills so far this split. Their best scoring game (17 kills) came yesterday, but they were facing SK, so it’s not like that number tells a lot.
In their wins, G2 have averaged 23 kills, whereas S04 have averaged 12.5 deaths in their losses and 10 deaths overall. Schalke 04’s games on average last 37:21, while G2 tend to drag their games out to 33:15, which should be more than enough for G2 to secure at least 18 kills.
Prediction: G2 Esports over 17.5 kills – 1.869 at Pinnacle
Fnatic vs MAD Lions
Saturday, January 30 – at 19:00 CET
In the LEC match of the week, we will see an exciting clash between MAD Lions and Fnatic, who seemingly found their identity and look much better to how they did during Week 1 of play.
One thing to note about these two teams is that they tend to be very aggressive. Fnatic on average see 1.02 kills per minute in their games, which ties them with G2, whereas MAD Lions are fourth-highest in that department with about 0,86 kills per minute, which is good for about 29.5 and 26.5 average kills/deaths per game respectively.
Those numbers alone suggest we are in for a bloodbath of a match, which is fair to expect, especially when we talk about Fnatic, who tend to take every fight they can simply because they believe they’re individually better than most of the teams. That, however, is a perfect recipe for an upset win.
Comparing the teams lane by lane, we have to give an edge to Fnatic’s top laner and jungler, but there is no denying Humanoid is a better mid laner than Nisqy. The bottom lane could easily go both ways, and while I was not too excited about MAD Lions’ bot side this split, they have shown they still “got it” by singlehandedly defeating Excel.
I don’t see why Fnatic should be priced at only 1.54 to win, and it seems like the odds are set more based on the brand value rather than the quality of play these teams have shown of late. At 2.52, MAD Lions are a bet I am more than happy to take, although I wouldn’t like to risk it at a much lower odds.
Prediction: MAD Lions to win -2.50 at Pinnacle