LOL LEC Spring Week 3 – Day 1 Betting Previews and Predictions
Misfits Gaming vs Excel
Friday, February 5 – 18:00 CET
Misfits enter this match after one of the most up-and-down weeks I have seen so far this season. That, however, doesn’t surprise me since Misfits are slowly getting recognized as one of the most hit-or-miss teams in the league.
I must give Misfits some props for their game against Rogue, where they came extremely close to winning, but still found a way to lose due to silly mistakes around the Baron pit. After such a strong performance, you would expect Misfits to sweep the floor with SK Gaming, but they ended up losing with 5-19 in kills and a 13.1k gold deficit.
I could go on and talk about Excel and how this team is playing much better than how their record might suggest, but I’m just not ready to bet on any match that has Misfits involved. Excel to win might be an appealing bet but I’m not ready to pull the trigger at the offered odds.
Schalke 04 vs Rogue
Friday, February 5 – 19:00 CET
I did not believe Schalke 04 could upset G2 Esports last week and they proved me wrong. Don’t get me wrong, I am happy to see G2 finally get punished for their iffy performances, but perhaps I should have seen it coming.
In S04’s upset win against G2, I was the most impressed with Sergen “Broken Blade” Çelik, who had an excellent performance on Aatrox and was the main driving force behind his team’s convincing victory. That said, G2 did “int” so I won’t be one to jump on S04’s hype train just yet.
Rogue continue to look like one of the cleanest teams in the league and while they have come close to dropping the ball against Misfits, their comeback only further proves this is a very strong team with an excellent sense for the game. They’re still undefeated, which tells a lot although they have yet to face a tough opponent – outside of Fnatic who were a complete mess in week 1.
I would consider betting on S04 to keep this match close, but Rogue look far too fundamentally sound and too consistent for me to say S04 can win.
Prediction: Rogue to win – 1.452 at Pinnacle
G2 Esports vs Vitality
Friday, February 5 – 20:00 CET
After losing against S04, G2 Esports will likely make some changes to how they approach their games, but it’s unclear whether they can do so in such short notice. They are still the main favorites to win the LEC Spring title, but with the way they’re playing, I am ready to believe they can lose to anyone – maybe not against Astralis and SK.
Vitality are playing much better than how their record might suggest and have even looked good in their losses. If we look back, they were close to defeating S04, bested Misfits, lost against Astralis in a game which they should have won and lost both of their games in week2 against Fnatic (who have played their best of the split that day) and Rogue.
The kill handicap is set at 9.5, which is very high. While I can imagine G2 taking the W with over 11 kills lead, there is also a world where they try and slow down the game so they don’t give up too many kills early on. Vitality with 9 kills advantage is a bet I can’t pass on, since they’re severely underrated and underappreciated team.
Prediction: Vitality +9.5 kills – 1.826 at Pinnacle
MAD Lions vs SK Gaming
Friday, February 5 – 20:00 CET
Without rambling too much, MAD Lions are a much stronger team than SK Gaming and I am surprised to see bookmakers offering odds of 1.40 and over on MAD Lions on the Moneyline market.
SK might have demolished Misfits last week, but that does not mean much to me. Misfits might have put up a very solid fight against Rogue, but I wouldn’t put too much weight on that performance.
MAD Lions are looking better and better with each passing game, which makes me quite excited to see what version of MAD Lions we will get in the Summer. There are still a few things this young squad needs to work on before we can rank them as high as the 2019 MAD Lions, but they’re improving at a much faster pace than the rest of the league.
MAD Lions shouldn’t lose this match, largely because their bottom lane is significantly stronger than SK’s. Be ready to see a major bot gap and a convincing win for MAD Lions.
Prediction: MAD Lions -5.5 kills – 1.89 at Pinnacle
Fnatic vs Astralis
Friday, February 5 – 21:00 CET
Fnatic looked very good in their win against Vitality, but then returned to their old ways with a loss against MAD Lions. The match was close, so there is some improvement on the side of Fnatic, but they still have a long way to go before we can start talking about another LEC finals appearance.
Astralis are in my book the weakest team in the league, which can only win games which their opponents throw. Luckily for them, they’re playing against a squad that is more than capable of losing games they should have otherwise won, so perhaps there is a chance we might be in for an upset win.
I am not betting on this match, as I am not ready to believe Fnatic can lose, but at the same time, the 8.5 kill handicap is a bit too high for me to consider a bet on the favorites. Pass.