LOL LEC Spring Week 3 – Day 2 Betting Previews and Predictions
Schalke 04 vs Misfits
Schalke 04 have made quite a statement with their win against Rogue yesterday, which now sits them in third place in the league with a 4-2 record. Although S04 deserve a lot of praise for what they have achieved, I can’t say I was impressed with Rogue, who have made more than a few mistakes, which led to their doom.
S04’s next opponent, Misfits lost their match against Excel despite looking like a much stronger team in the early game. That said, Excel had a much better team composition, which proved to be too much to handle for Misfits in the later stages of the game.
For Misfits, losing games in which they look like a better team has become a theme of sorts. They had a lead in almost all of their games, but they still end up losing due to their poor mid-late game which is a huge problem that can’t be fixed overnight. On a more positive note, Misfits are gaining leads, which means they have good players, so at least they have that going for them.
Comparing the teams lane-by-lane, the top side seems fairly equally matched although we could say BrokenBlade has a slight edge based on his recent showings, whereas the opposite holds true for the jungle matchup. Mid lane matchup can easily go both ways depending on whether Vetheo will step up or not, whereas we can say Misfits have a better bottom lane.
Misfits are stylistically one of the most aggressive teams in the league, and average one of the highest average kills per game (26,7), which translates to 0,85 average total kills per minute. S04 are a bit slower with 20,5 average total kills per game, 11,17 average kills and 0,57 total kills per minute.
There is a world where Misfits can edge out S04, but I’m not buying Misfits at all. They’re far too inconsistent and seem like a team that has won their games by “mistake”. I’m trusting Schalke to continue playing with the same fire they had over the last week and if they do so, they should be able to take care of business here.
Prediction: Schalke 05 -4.5 kills
Excel vs SK Gaming
Excel managed an incredible comeback against Misfits yesterday, largely due to their strong draft, which is also their biggest strength. SK Gaming, on the other side completely crushed MAD Lions, although I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on that game as it was a complete fluke thanks to MAD Lions severely underperforming.
After such a commanding win over MAD, you might believe SK are a good team, and while they are not particularly bad, they also have some positives. The biggest issue I have with them is their drafts, but they seem like they have even so slightly better players than Excel.
I have a reason to believe Excel can win this match solely because I expect them to outdraft SK, but I am a bit concerned with the lane matchups, namely the jungle, where I’m not a big fan of Dan. If Excel manage to survive to the late game and play out their gameplan – scale and play around Patrick – they will win, but this really comes down to a 50/ 50 scenario so you just have to take the underdogs at a better price.
Prediction: SK Gaming to win
Vitality vs MAD Lions
Vitality lost their game against G2 Esports yesterday, however, they held on relatively well all things considered. I continued to believe in Vitality despite all their losses and while I still have hope this team can improve, it seems like they will struggle to overcome the problems in the jungle.
That’s not to say Skeanz is a bad player, but watching their games, it seems like he is achieving nothing in the early game. He is not helping his lanes and he is not getting any farm, so why is he there? In short, Skeanz seems more like a liability, which is a huge problem in the current meta.
On the other side, we have MAD Lions, who severely underperformed yesterday when they lost to SK. That one result alone doesn’t convince me MAD are a bad team, although I can’t defend them for what they have shown.
Both teams have underperformed of late, so we can expect a somewhat better showing today. With that in mind, it’s MAD Lions who have a much higher ceiling, so assuming we see both sides play at their best MAD should win. It is, however, a big “IF”.
No Prediction
Rogue vs Astralis
I won’t be betting on this match, as there is nothing that appeals to me at the provided odds. Even though Rogue disappointed against S04, I don’t see them losing against Astralis, who are objectively the worst team in the league.
The quality gap is far too large for me to consider betting on Astralis. A +8.5 kill handicap might seem appealing considering Rogue are not exactly a team that will run you over and secure 20+ kills, although they’re more than capable of doing so if Astralis let them.
No Prediction
Fnatic vs G2 Esports
Fnatic enter this match as 2.92 underdogs, which seems about fair given how one-sided this affair has been over the last couple of years. That, however, doesn’t mean we are in for another commanding win for G2.
One thing to note that out of the last 10 meetings between Fnatic and G2, the winner of the match had 20 or more kills in all but two games, so it’s fair to expect another high-scoring affair this time out.
So far this split, Fnatic have on average seen 35,33 total kills in their games (1.18 total kills per minute), which translates to 17,8 average kills and 17,5 average deaths per game. G2 are not too far behind with an average total kills at 29.17 (0,89 TKPM), as well as 18,3 average kills and 10,3 average deaths.
Everything is pointing towards a high-scoring game, but my gut is telling me this can easily turn out to be a complete stomp from either side, which would mean the game won’t end anywhere near 30 kills.
Regardless, we like a bet on Fnatic to secure at least 11 kills (1.804 on Pinnacle. Even though they will struggle to overcome G2 with the way they’re playing, Fnatic tend to take every fight they can get and as long as they can pressure G2 in the early stages of the game – where G2 seem the weakest – Fnatic should have a fairly easy time passing the double digits by the end of the game.
Prediction: Fnatic over 10.5 kills
