LOL LEC Spring Week 4 – Day 2 Betting Previews and Predictions
Team Vitality vs SK Gaming
Saturday, February 17 – 17:00 CET
Crownshot’s debut for Team Vitality ended in a disappointing loss against Excel, who stole away the victory from the Bees largely thanks to their superior draft. Regardless of that defeat, Vitality did not play poorly and have, in fact, looked like the better team for the first 25 minutes of the game.
While Crownshot was a slight upgrade to Comp, Vitality still seem to have clear shot calling issues, whereas I can’t say anything too positive about their jungler Skeanz and his performances either. On a more positive note, I expect the shotcallng to improve as the time goes on while Skeanz’s flaws are nothing some coaching can’t fix.
SK Gaming, meanwhile, got completely stomped by Fnatic yesterday in a match you just can’t take a lot from. Fnatic were clearly a much better team from top to bottom, which is something we can say about almost all opponents SK Gaming have faced so far.
Both teams have their own unique issues, but as far as their quality is concerned, they seem equally matched, which leads me to believe this game can easily swing both ways. That said, I like Vitality slightly more especially with the Crownshot vs his old team revenge angle.
Prediction: Vitality to win – 2.00 Pinnacle
Astralis vs Misfits
Saturday, February 17 – 18:00 CET
Who would have thought that Misfits dropped the ball against G2 Esports? Although they held on well and managed to match G2’s fast-style of play, the game was doomed from the start, largely due to G2’s draft which proved to be a ticking time bomb, which Misfits were unable to defuse in time.
Misfit’s next match against Astralis should favour the Bunnies, although it’s worth noting that Astralis have looked much better with Magifelix on the team when they beat Schalke 04. That’s not to say he has carried his team to victory, but rather that he has not made any big mistakes that would cost his team the W, which is a plus.
Regardless of Astralis’ improvement, we are leaning more towards Misfits for this one, largely because of their aggression. While Misfits are a high kill/win, Astralis are a high death/loss team. What’s more, Misfits are entering this match with a fairly high 1% GSPD (gold spend percentage difference), whereas Astralis hold the lowest (-10.2%) GSPD in the league.
Misfits are still a team that can lose any game, but they’re still going to win this match more times than not simply because they individually outclass Astralis. Any bet on Misfits is a risky bet, but at the offered price, I can’t pass on it.
Prediction: Misfits to win – 1.57 Pinnacle
Schalke 04 vs MAD Lions
Saturday, February 17 – 19:00 CET
This is a match that I don’t feel too comfortable betting on. Despite Schalke 04’s solid run last week, they completely fell apart yesterday and suffered a devastating loss against Astralis, where S04 underperformed across the board and proved just how bad they can look if things don’t go their way.
MAD Lions, meanwhile, are a team I have faith in to improve largely because they have a very high upside, but as it stands now, they’re not looking too good. In other words, MAD Lions are the type of team that can win any game, but it’s hard to say when that will happen.
Oddly enough, MAD Lions’ biggest star players in Carzzy and Humanoid are just not playing well which is somewhat confusing, as they’re usually the main culprits for their team losing games. In some ways, it seems like MAD lions just decide they will lose the game and go for very questionable plays – such as Kaizer’s dive under Rogue’s turret in minute five yesterday which more or less sealed the deal for MAD.
MAD are a very tempting bet at 2.20, but they’re simply too high variance for me to risk my money. Similarly, S04’s poor performance yesterday makes me very hesitant to bet on them. This is a pass for me.
No Prediction
Fnatic vs Excel
Saturday, February 17 – 20:00 CET
Excel are 5-3 which is fairly solid, however, there are a few things we have to note about Excel and how they go about earning their victories. Their playstyle is fairly simple – draft scaling comps, drag out the game, coin-flip a late-game teamfight and count on Patrick to carry you to victory – which is basically what has happened yesterday.
That also explains why Excel tend to win their games with very low gold leads, however, in games which they lose, Excel usually lose by quite a significant margin. While I was and still am quite excited to see this team grow, I don’t think it’s fair Excel are a 5-3 team.
Their next opponents Fnatic enter this match in a three-game winning streak which they have earned with their chaotic, fast-paced playstyle that is quite exciting to watch, but also very effective. They have a high death/loss and high kill/win average and also boast the highest combined kills/minute (1.54).
Excel might share the same record than Fnatic, but it’s fair to say they haven’t looked nearly as good as the annual LEC runners-up. It’s also worth noting that Fnatic playstyle is a stylistic nightmare for Excel, who like to achieve the complete opposite as their next opponents and I don’t see how they will be able to fight against that, largely because they’re individually outclassed in all positions.
Prediction: Fnatic to win – 1.386 Pinnacle
G2 Esports vs Rogue
Saturday, February 17 – 21:00 CET
G2 Esports will take on Rogue in the game of the week, where we will see two of the strongest teams in Europe clash in a match that will likely give us the answer of which side will sit atop the league for at least a couple of weeks.
G2 Esports enter this match as 1.704 favorites, which may seem fair given that they field by far the strongest team Europe has ever had, however, they’re hardly showing that with their performances. That is not to say G2 aren’t a top-two team in the LEC, however, I have a hard time agreeing with the betting odds.
Rogue are mischaracterized as a boring late-game team, but in reality, they have one of the best early-games in the world, which is not something that should be overlooked for this bout. Although they might not have high kill counts, Rogue don’t necessarily gain their gold leads that way, but instead, use their strong game sense to slowly gain leads which they then use to snowball to victory.
Even if we compare the teams individually, Odoamne and Inspired have been playing much better than Wunder and Jankos of late, and while G2 have a slight edge in the mid/bot lane, the gap is not nearly as high as how it may seem.
This match should be much closer to a 50/50 than what the odds imply and I’m happy I can take Rogue with odds as high as 2.17.
Prediction: Rogue to win – 2.17 Pinnacle
