LOL LEC Spring Week 5 – Day 1 Betting Previews and Predictions
Schalke 04 vs SK Gaming
Friday, February 19 – 18:00 CET
Schalke 04 enter Week 5 of the LEC Spring off a 0-2 weekend when they lost against Astralis and MAD Lions, which is not a good look for a team that has not long ago took down the region’s top teams in G2 Esports and Rogue. Regardless of their slip-up, Schalke 04 are now set to face SK Gaming, who I must admit look better than expected, but they’ve yet to impress me with their performances.
The only notable win SK have managed to produce was their Week 3 victory against MAD Lions, but even that was a weird game that shouldn’t have ended the way it did. The fixture was more MAD Lions’ bottom lane getting countered and feeding rather than SK showing any form of quality.
I was also not too impressed with SK in their win against Vitality since they should have lost had Vitality not messed up the fight in the Baron pit. All in all, SK give off an impression that they might do fine against bottom-of-the-table squads, but they’re by no means a good team.
Schalke 04 have been somewhat disappointing and inconsistent of late, but they’re still much stronger than SK and should not be losing games like this.
Prediction: Schalke 04 to win – 1.598 Pinnacle
Excel vs MAD Lions
Friday, February 19 – 19:00 CET
As talked about before, MAD Lions are not a bad team and they’re bound to improve as the season goes on, but as it stands now, they’re looking very shaky. I am the most concerned with their bottom lane that has had a few too many iffy showings although they’re not the only ones making silly mistakes.
On the other side, we have Excel, who we know what to expect from. They approach their games with a very controlled and slow-paced playstyle and – unlike some more aggressive teams – look to outscore their opponents and win with their late-game strengths.
This match is thought to predict, as it is unclear how MAD Lions’ bottom late will perform. If they show what they’re capable of, I would be taking MAD Lions every day of the week, but since they have yet to show any form of stability, Excel comes off as a better pick at offered odds.
Prediction: Excel to win – 2.20 at Pinnacle
G2 Esports vs Astralis
Friday, February 19 – 20:00 CET
This is more of an underdog or nothing type of a game, but can you really trust Astralis – the weakest and the least experienced team in the league – to take down what is easily one of the most stacked rosters Europe has ever had?
I must admit Astralis looked better with Magifelix, which earned them an upset win against Schalke 04. That said, they did not impress me in their loss against Misfits the next day, which leads me to believe Astralis have a lot of issues they need to fix and that will take a bit more time.
The kill handicap for this match is set at 9.5 which is fairly high, but I am a bit hesitant to take Astralis even with a nine kills lead against G2, who have started showing a more stable playstyle last week. What’s more, G2 won with 30-17 in kills last time out, so it’s not like they can’t do it again.
No Prediction
Team Vitality vs Fnatic
Friday, February 19 – 21:00 CET
This is another match where you either bet on the underdog or you don’t bet at all and while Fnatic still come off as a very volatile team, there is no denying they have looked very solid across the last two weeks and should win more times than not. In their wins, Fnatic looked very dominant, but they’re still a bit too shaky for me to say they will continue on the same path for a long time.
As mentioned before, Fnatic look like the “old G2” but they still give off an impression that they can fall apart at any given moment. On the other side, we have Vitality who have had a less-than-impressive run through this season, but I still believe this team is much better than what they led us to believe and it’s only a matter of time before they start showing that.
Due to Fnatic’s volatility, I like Vitality with a 9.5 kill handicap much better as they have the tools to match Fnatic’s aggression and keep this match relatively close. Still, I need to see a bit sharper mid-late game and better decision making from them before I will be ready to bet on the Bees.
No Prediction
Misfits vs Rogue
Friday, February 19 – 22:00 CET
Rogue might have lost their game against G2, but it was an extremely good effort from them that produced one of the best games of the split. Rogue are undeniably a world-class team despite their fluke loss against Schalke 04 and are currently nothing less than one of the top three favorites to win the LEC Spring.
Misfits, on the other side, are the polar opposite. While this team has the talent to compete for top spots, they still seem a bit off. Unlike Rogue, who are a very stable team, Misfits are extremely volatile, largely due to their aggression which I have touched on before.
Once we see some more stability from Misfits, I will be the first one to say this is a very competitive team, but until then, Misfits are the type of team that can lose any game.
Since this is a best-of-one online match, there is a world where Misfits can cause an upset, but I wouldn’t count on it. I believe Rogue takes this one nine times out of ten, but I wouldn’t count on a high kill margin, since Rogue are not the type of a team that will go out of their way to secure kills but will instead slowly choke out their opponents with their superb macro play.
Prediction: Rogue to win – 1.315 Pinnacle
