LOL LEC Spring Week 6 – Day 1 Betting Previews and Predictions
MAD Lions vs SK Gaming
Friday, February 26 – 18:00 CET
MAD Lions looked better last week and although they were a bit lucky to win against Excel – in fact Excel gifted them a win – it’s fair to say MAD have at least somewhat improved the impression they left in the previous weeks. I still believe MAD Lions will rise and look much better down the line, but in the short term, I’m a bit skeptical about their bottom lane, which has been a bit too inconsistent.
Much of MAD Lions’ inconsistency come from their (overly) aggressive playstyle that can easily turn around and bite them – as it already did a couple of times before. It can, however, also earn them commanding wins, when everything goes their way.
SK Gaming are looking better than expected, which is something I’ve said a couple of times now and while I am still not too excited about this team in the long run, I believe the odds offered on this match make sense. One thing we can take away from SK’s games is that they like to play relatively short games (33:27 average time), which should work nicely against MAD Lions whose average games last for only 30:49.
It’s hard to say which side will come out ahead. While I am leaning more towards MAD (largely due to their higher ceiling), the under 34:00 makes much more sense, as this is the type of game that can spiral out of control very early. The odds are not particularly high, but this is the only bet I am comfortable taking for this match.
Prediction: Under 34:00 – 1.395 at Pinnacle
Misfits Gaming vs Excel
Friday, February 26 – 19:00 CET
This will be an interesting match between two teams that use completely different playstyles. Misfits are your typical volatile, aggressive and unpredictable team, whereas Excel are more of a slow-paced, scaling team. One more thing that separates these two sides is that Excel tend to have a very good idea of how to approach late-game, whereas Misfits don’t.
With that in mind, it’s easy to figure the teams’ win conditions. For Misfits, gaining an early lead and use their advantage to snowball to victory will be crucial, whereas Excel only need to stall the game and use their superior scaling to outclass Misfits later. This essentially means the only thing we need to figure out is whether Excel can stall out the game or not.
Unfortunately for Misfits, Excel have proven to be very efficient when it comes to slowing down games, largely because they’re not an ego team but instead avoid stupid fights early on if they know they won’t get anything from it. Even when behind, Excel do their best to hold their ground and wait for their composition to come online, which should do wonders in this match.
Although there is a world where Misfits grab a big lead early on, they’re also a type of team that is very inefficient when it comes to closing down games, which is a huge red flag.
The betting odds on Excel have been rising (1.64 opening odds on Pinnacle) and now sit at 1.93, which doesn’t make much sense to me. While backing strong early-game teams generally makes a lot of sense, I just can’t take their side due to the aforementioned issue when it comes to closing out games. For this match, you either take Excel or you don’t bet at all.
Prediction: Excel to win – 1.93 Pinnacle
Team Vitality vs G2 Esports
Friday, February 26 – 20:00 CET
We’ve seen int before and we will see it again – G2 Esports, while arguably the strongest team Europe has ever had, usually underperform against weaker sides.
That doesn’t necessarily mean I trust Vitality to win, but there is no denying they are looking MUCH better with Crownshot on the team. It seems like his arrival has improved Vitality’s shotcalling, which was their biggest issue this season and as long as they can continue playing the way they did last week, I expect great things from the Bees.
Betting on Vitality to cause an upset doesn’t appeal to me too much, since they still make way too many mistakes in their games, however, this is still a best-of-one online match, so there is a world where we see (another) upset win. It’s worth noting I wouldn’t recommend a bet on Vitality if they were set to face Rogue, but G2… they’re a team that can lose games like this one.
I’m taking Vitality with a 10.5 kill handicap, simply because the handicap is way too generous for me to ignore. A smaller stake on Vitality is also something worth considering.
Prediction: Team Vitality +10.5 kills – 1.800 Pinnacle
Prediction: Team Vitality to win – 6.390 Pinnacle
Schalke 04 vs Rogue
Friday, February 26 – 21:00 CET
Schalke 04 are the type of team that can look extremely good one day, but equally as disappointing the next. In short, this is still a good team, but they’re way too inconsistent.
I’ve already mentioned it before, but S04 tend to play much better when faced with strong teams, so perhaps there is some hope they can upset the LEC top dogs. With that in mind, I would consider betting on S04 to keep it within seven kills, but I’ll be passing on this bet, due to Schalke’s financial issues.
Earlier this week, it was announced Schalke are struggling with their finances, which will likely force them to sell their LEC spot. Although that doesn’t necessarily mean players will lose their job, it certainly doesn’t help the team’s morale. If you need to bet on this match, take Schalke with +7.5 kills at 1.704, but for me, this is a pass.
No Prediction
Fnatic vs Astralis
Friday, February 26 – 22:00 CET
You’ve probably heard this one before, and you’ll hear it again – Astralis look much better of late. Their laners don’t fall behind as much as they did early into the season and it seems like they’re playing with much more confidence than they have before.
Are Astralis now a good team? Well… not particularly, but they’re definitely not as bad as they were a couple of weeks ago.
As for Fnatic, there is no denying this is a good team, but they’re very volatile by design. Their playstyle is as aggressive and unpredictable as it can get which will see them drop a couple of games they otherwise shouldn’t, but this is still a top-three European team.
With the departure of Rekkless, Fnatic found a new carry in Bwipo, who (surprise, surprise), is also a volatile player. He is currently playing extremely well, but he can have his off-days where he will do nothing but feed the opponents. I still believe he is better than WhiteKnight, but there is a world where Bwipo underperforms and we can be sure WhiteKnight will be able to take advantage of that.
For this match, we are siding with Astralis with a 10.5 kill handicap and will also take a smaller bet on Astralis to win. They might not be better than Fnatic, but considering Fnatic are highly volatile, this is a bet worth taking at offered odds.
Prediction: Astralis +10.5 kills – 1.684 Pinnacle
Prediction: Astralis to win – 4.04 Pinnacle
