LOL LEC Spring Week 6 – Day 2 Betting Previews and Predictions
Misfits Gaming vs Schalke 04
Saturday, February 27 – 17:00 CET
If we compare these two teams lane by lane, I would give S04 a slight edge in the top lane, but there is no denying Misfits have much more experienced and overall better bottom lane. Although Matúš “Neon” Jakubčík is not a bad player, he has been using Kai’sa quite frequently, which would be good in previous patches, but Kai’sa is no longer a strong pick in 11.14.
Both sides have also had some really poor decision-making over the past few weeks, which was mostly notable on the side of Schalke 04, who have looked much better earlier, whereas Misfits were this way for the whole season.
S04 might have looked a couple of weeks ago, but they haven’t impressed over the last few weeks. Misfits, meanwhile are by no means a team I would praise too much, but they have shown solid improvement of late and as long as they can continue playing the way they did yesterday, Misfits should be more than capable of defeating Schalke tonight.
Prediction: Misfits to win – 2.15 Pinnacle
Excel vs SK Gaming
Saturday, February 27 – 18:00 CET
As with any game with Excel involved, their opponents will feel the pressure of winning the early game in order to avoid getting stomped by Excel’s late-game scaling compositions. This is also the perfect way to counter Excel and their playstyle, which Misfits have showcased yesterday.
Are SK a team that is capable of playing as high-tempo aggressive playstyle as Misfits did? Perhaps, but I don’t see it. That is mainly because SK’s jungler Kristian “TynX” Østergaard Hansen is just not playing good enough and with a poor performing jungler, you can’t really achieve much in this meta. At the same time Daniel “Dan” Hockley is also not looking too sharp, so there’s that.
If I had to pick a side, I would go for SK Gaming, since they’ve looked much better of late, but I can imagine Excel out drafting SK and stealing the win as they did the first time out. No bet for me.
One bet that is worth considering, however, is SK to secure first blood. They have a 58.3% first blood rate this season and 57.1% in their wins, whereas Excel managed to secure first blood in only 16.7% of their games (lowest in the league). At 1.806 this is a bet I can’t pass on.
Prediction: SK Gaming first blood – 1.806 Pinnacle
Vitality vs MAD Lions
Saturday, February 27 – 19:00 CET
It’s hard to imagine MAD Lions losing two games in one week, but I can definitely imagine them losing to Vitality here. While I was not too impressed with Vitality yesterday, I also have a hard time praising MAD too much for their loss against SK.
MAD Lions should have won that game, but even when they were in a position to gain leads, their players got caught out which essentially gifted SK a win. And by their players, I am referring mostly to Matyáš “Carzzy” Orság who has had a few too many iffy showings this split.
MAD Lions are proving to be a very volatile team that usually fall apart due to individual mistakes. Once one player gets caught, the whole team just jumps in in hopes to salvage something from the situation, but they usually fall behind even further because of that.
For this game, I expect Vitality to look for scaling, which could turn around and bite them. MAD Lions, as I have established before are a very aggressive team, which should work well into scaling compositions, but at the same time, I am a bit concerned about their bottom lane, which has proven to be a class below Vitality’s. At the offered odds, I am ready to take a shot with Vitality.
Prediction: Team Vitality to win – 3.13 Pinnacle
Prediction: Team Vitality +7.5 kills – 1.813 Pinnacle
Astralis vs Rogue
Saturday, February 27 – 20:00 CET
Even though I took a shot with Astralis against Fnatic yesterday, Rogue are an entirely different beast, that is not only better than Fnatic, but also far more stable and error-free. In games like this one, the underdogs can only win if the favorites screw up, but anyone who has been watching Rogue play can agree this team rarely screw up.
Even though I am confident Rogue will win, the kill handicap line is set way too high for me to recommend a bet on Rogue to win with 10 kills to spare. Although they’re more than capable of that, the problem is that Rogue are generally not a very kill hungry team.
In their wins, Rogue average 13.3 kills and give up 6.5 deaths, whereas Astralis managed only 6.44 kills and 14.33 deaths in their losses this split. Astralis’ numbers, however, are a bit skewed since they have looked much better of late, at least as far as K/D is concerned.
Fnatic vs G2 Esports
Saturday, February 27 – 21:00 CET
Match of the week between Fnatic and G2 Esports will mark their rematch from three weeks ago when Fnatic won largely thanks to their aggression, which disrupted the flow of the game and threw G2 off-tempo. Since then, G2 started to look more stable, whereas Fnatic continued with their volatile ways, which has earned them a few commanding wins, but also a couple of disappointing losses.
One thing to note about these two sides is that G2 are a very high kills/win (18.63) team, whereas Fnatic are a very high death/loss (18.63) team, essentially meaning there is a world where G2 win by a huge kill margin. That is definitely something that can happen since G2 are undeniably the better team.
Even if statistics would suggest otherwise, the eye test would make it very obvious G2 are the superior team in this match, and have been for the last few years. That’s not to say Fnatic are a bad LEC team, but their volatility and (arguably) lower-quality players definitely work against them here. I’m taking G2 here, but I am not comfortable with a kill handicap.
Prediction: G2 Esports to win – 1.427 Pinnacle