LOL LEC Spring Week 7 – Day 1 Betting Previews and Predictions
MAD Lions vs Schalke 04
Friday, March 5 – 18:00 CET
MAD Lions are looking much better now compared to how they did early into the season with four wins in their last five outings, albeit those came against some of the weakest teams in the league. Schalke 04, on the other side, are looking extremely bad after a strong start of the season, with no win in their last six games.
Even though there is not a lot of positive things to say about S04 and their recent showings, we know that this team tends to perform better when under pressure and while I don’t expect to see another miracle run, I still believe this team is capable of much more than what they led us to believe of late. That said, I need to see better drafts from them heading forward.
MAD Lions are not a bad team, but I am often skeptical about betting on them when they’re priced as favorites. Although there are definitely arguments to be made MAD are better than S04, this team is also very volatile so it makes little to no sense to side with them at shorter odds.
Much of their volatility comes from the bottom lane, who have singlehandedly lost a few games for MAD this season and since I haven’t seen any improvement in that regard, it’s likely Matyáš “Carzzy” Orság and Norman “Kaiser” Kaiser will likely be the main actors in a couple more losses this split.
Prediction: Schalke 04 to win – 2.30 Pinnacle
Misfits vs Astralis
Friday, March 5 – 19:00 CET
Like MAD Lions, Misfits are not a team you would want to bet on when they’re priced as favorites, largely because they’re very unpredictable and volatile. For this match, however, they’re also facing Astralis who haven’t looked too bad of late.
Although Misfits have started to show some more stability of late, I am not ready to believe that means much in the greater picture, so as far as my perception of this team goes, Misfits are still volatile and capable of losing against any team.
This match will be an important one for both sides, as they chase a spot in the playoffs. Although Astralis’ chances to make it to the postseason are slim to none, winning here will be critical since Misfits are one of the teams that stands in their way to a top-six finish.
With two volatile, aggressive teams that are desperate for a win, this match can spiral out of control very quickly. I would consider siding with Astralis at the offered price, but I’m very hesitant about betting on a team with questionable motivation to keep pushing. That said, we can expect an explosive match with plenty of kills on the board.
Prediction: Over 24.5 kills – 1.709 Pinnacle
G2 Esports vs Rogue
Friday, March 5 – 21:00 CET
I would completely understand siding with either of the two teams here and while G2 Esports look better, I don’t believe the gap is nearly as big as the betting odds would suggest. Last time out, G2 won this matchup, but I would argue Rogue played better, however, were a bit unlucky to get themselves in a spot where they had to fight from behind.
I don’t quite agree with the betting odds and it seems like the recency bias is strong with this match. Rogue are not a bad team and you can’t really argue with that – they even have a better early-game than G2, which is not something to undervalue in close affairs like this one. This match can easily go both ways, so I’ll gladly take Rogue at 2.24.
Prediction: Rogue to win – 2.24 Pinnacle
Team Vitality vs SK Gaming
Friday, March 5 – 21:00 CET
I was not too excited about SK Gaming heading into this season, but they’ve proven to be proper LEC gatekeepers, with strong performances against bottom-table teams and respectable showings even against the league top dogs.
Although they’ve lost against the likes of Excel, Fnatic, Rogue, G2, and Schalke, SK enter this match on a five-game winning streak which is nothing to sneeze at. Vitality, meanwhile, have found themselves on the other side of the LEC food chain.
The Bees have lost all but two games this season, which more or less guarantees they won’t be making it into the playoffs and can instead look to use the remaining matches to figure out what can they change heading into LEC Summer.
Betting against a team in such a situation is something I am not a big fan of, largely because they are now playing without any pressure, which can really work both ways. What’s more, I still firmly believe Vitality haven’t been playing as poorly as their record suggests, granted they have made a few very stupid mistakes that ended up costing them a couple of wins.
I don’t mind seeing SK gaming as favorites here, but at the same time, I do believe there is a chance Vitality can surprise us today. If I had to pick a side, it would be Vitality, since they have enough talent to compete with SK – even though they haven’t been showing that for the most part of the season. That said, I will rather keep myself away from this one.
Excel vs Fnatic
Friday, March 5 – 22:00 CET
How do you even approach betting on this match at the offered odds? Objectively, Fnatic are a much stronger team that should win this match more times than not, but is this volatile squad really worth a bet at 1.28?
On the other side, a bet on Excel can earn us a big payout at 3.76, but who would dare to bet on a team that not only lacks the individual talent but also stylistically don’t match up well Fnatic?
What’s more, Excel’s early game is a complete disaster, which won’t do them any favors against one of the most effective and explosive early-game teams in the league. Scratch that, Fnatic are one of the best early-game teams in the world – yes, including the LPL and LCK.
Unless Excel changes their identity for this match and show they’re ready to fight Fnatic early on, I just don’t see how they will be able to survive for much longer than 30 minutes
Prediction: Under 32:00 – 1.591 Pinnacle