LOL LEC Spring Week 8 – Day 1 Betting Previews and Predictions
Rogue vs SK Gaming
Friday, March 12 – 18:00 CET
SK Gaming are doing much better than initially expected, however, I would go on to argue SK picked up a few wins they shouldn’t have. Their biggest issue is poor early-game which usually sees them fall behind, yet they still somehow manage to come out ahead.
Falling behind early against most of the LEC teams is not that big of an issue since the bottom-table team struggle closing out games, but when it comes to Rogue, I find it hard to believe the SK will manage to get away with a robbery once again. Rogue are on of the most consistent teams in the league with one of the best early-game stats in the world.
There is a massive quality gap between these two sides and even at these odds, Rogue are worth backing. Alternatively, you can pick Rogue to win with seven kills to spare.
Prediction: Rogue to win – 1.346 Pinnacle
Prediction: Rogue -6.5 kills – 1.68 Pinnacle
Astralis vs Team Vitality
Friday, March 12 – 19:00 CET
Astralis look much better than how they did early into the season, but this is still a very weak team that I seriously doubt will achieve any remarkable success this season. On the other side, we have Vitality whose record is far from impressive, but as mentioned several times before, they’re playing much better than what their numbers might suggest.
Vitality even looked much better across the last couple of weeks, however, I still have some doubts over this team due to their macro errors. Regardless, this team is bound to look much better next split, largely due to their immense improvement since Juš “Crownshot” Marušič’s arrival.
For this match, you either take Vitality at 1.505 or you pass. At this price, I’m choosing the latter.
No Prediction
Fnatic vs Schalke 04
Friday, March 12 – 20:00 CET
There is not a lot to be said about these two sides that hasn’t already been said. Schalke 04 are in full panic mode, needing to win all of their remaining three games to secure a spot in the playoffs, and if last season has taught us anything, this team tends to perform the best when under pressure.
Fnatic, meanwhile are in a comfortable spot and don’t really need to produce any miracles to enter the postseason. They’re, however, still a high-variance and unpredictable team, so it’s hard to make a case for them when faced with a team that can’t afford to lose.
Fnatic are overall still a stronger team, but looking at the betting odds, Schalke 04 seem a bit underestimated. Yes, they might have struggled a bit, but they still have enough individual talent to take on any other team in the league, as long as they don’t blunder their drafts.
At 3.19, a smaller bet (0.5 units) on Schalke is something worth considering, or you take them with a +7.5 kill handicap.
Prediction: Schalke 04 to win – 3.19 Pinnacle
Misfits Gaming vs MAD Lions
Friday, March 12 – 20:00 CET
Here we have a match between two extremely volatile teams, which is the type of match I usually avoid betting on, largely because you can’t know what will happen. MAD Lions can be very strong. but I am a bit concerned with their bottom lane that continues to coin flip their lane which has led to a few unnecessary losses this season.
Misfits have been playing much better of late, but they still lack that little something for me to believe they are a proper playoff team. They have a very high ceiling, but their linear style of play and struggles to close out games won’t take them very far.
This seems like a 50/50 match, largely because we don’t know how MAD’s bottom lane will do. If they fall behind again, Misfits might come out ahead, but if they go even, you have to prefer MAD.
No Prediction
Excel Esports vs G2 Esports
Friday, March 12 – 20:00 CET
This game is tough to predict since you can’t know how these two sides will approach it. Excel are in a very frustrating spot, as they are well on their way to missing out on the playoffs after they seemed all but guaranteed to finish inside the top six.
The frustration is quite obvious from watching them play their games and it’s hard to say whether they have calmed down enough to show what they’re capable of tonight or will we see another disorganized showing from them.
G2 Esports, on the other side, have already locked in a spot in the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean they can put their foot off the gas just yet. They are only one win ahead of Rogue, meaning that anything less than a perfect 3-0 run in the final week could see them lose the regular-season title.
G2 are definitely a much stronger team that should defeat Excel with ease, but I’m not too excited about backing the reigning champions to cover such a big kill handicap. That said, the total kill line seems to be set a bit high for a game that is bound to be a roll-over.
Prediction: Under 28.5 kills – 1.826 Pinnacle
