LOL LEC Spring Week 8 – Day 2 Betting Previews and Predictions
Astralis vs SK Gaming
Saturday, March 13 – 17:00 CET
Astralis seem to be playing better and better with each passing week and while they’re (still) not a particularly strong team, I am starting to like them as an underdog pick. There are definitely arguments to be made SK Gaming are much stronger than Astralis and legitimate LEC gatekeepers, but I just can’t stand behind a team that is struggling in the early-game as much as SK do.
I’m not trying to discredit SK Gaming for their success this season, but there is no reason to have them priced as low as 1.438 for this match, especially when faced with a team that has nothing to lose, and we have seen how much more deadly Astralis can be when they play without any pressure.
The pressure on SK might work in their favour, but it can also work in the other direction. Needing to win here and facing a possible elimination if Misfits and Schalke 04 continue winning might be too much to handle for some inexperienced players, which leads me to believe SK can choke.
Prediction: Astralis to win – 2.830 Pinnacle
Vitality vs Schalke 04
Saturday, March 13 – 18:00 CET
Vitality’s miracle run has ended as soon as it started, and after losing their game yesterday, they’re now eliminated from the playoffs race. Schalke 04, meanwhile need to win at least one of the remaining two games and hope Misfits lose at least one to lock in a playoffs spot.
Schalke 04’s game yesterday was weird, in a way that S04 looked like they should lose, but they somehow managed to outscale Fnatic to lock in a crucial win that keeps their playoffs dreams alive. Wins like that make me very worried about betting against S04, who we have established are a very dangerous team when they get their wheels spinning.
Looking at the betting odds, picking Vitality would make a lot of sense, since they’re arguably just as strong as Schalke, but due to the aforementioned reasons, I’m very sceptical about picking the outsiders for this one. My gut feeling is telling me to pick S04 and that’s what I’m going to do here.
Prediction: Schalke 04 to win – 1.625 Pinnacle
Rogue vs Excel
Saturday, March 13 – 19:00 CET
Excel managed the unthinkable yesterday and took down G2 Esports with their superior draft, which allowed them to outscale the reigning LEC champions and pick up a huge win. That was easily one of Excel’s best games of the season, but I wouldn’t like to overreact to one result alone, especially considering Excel are now set to face Rogue who might prove to be a tougher opponent to defeat than G2 due to their playstyle.
Rogue did not look too clean against SK yesterday, however, if we take a closer look at that game, Rogue were in full control from minute one until the end.
I won’t overcomplicate it. Rogue should win this match with ease and not only because they’re a superior squad, but we must also consider they could win the regular season if they avoid losing a game in the remaining two rounds. While I believe Rogue are the most likely victory, the betting odds are way too low for me to place my money on them, whereas I’m not ready to take them with a kill handicap, since this is not exactly a team that will chase kills.
Misfits Gaming vs Fnatic
Saturday, March 13 – 20:00 CET
In a match between two highly-volatile teams you can’t know what exactly will happen, but for this match, you simply have to favor Fnatic who should be winning games like this one more time than now.
Misfits have been struggling to close out games and struggle to win any game which isn’t handed to them. Fnatic, meanwhile have a set plan of how to win games and while they can be a bit volatile at times, their individual quality should shine through here.
Prediction: Fnatic to win – 1.546
G2 Esports vs MAD Lions
Saturday, March 13 – 21:00 CET
G2 Esports’ loss to Excel yesterday moved the betting odds quite aggressively, which is nothing unusual since results like this usually result in massive overreactions. G2 are still undeniably a much stronger team than MAD Lions and while I believe MAD are a very talented team that will impress everyone when their bottom lane finds some stability, they’re currently a bit too volatile for me to side with them against almost any team in the league.
As the odds would suggest, this game is G2’s to lose and I would o even so far as to say they shouldn’t be losing games like this if they enter the match with at least a somewhat decent draft. Poor drafts have been G2’s biggest weakness for a couple of seasons, but they still have a good coaching staff that should learn its lesson from yesterday.
I expect some resistance from MAD Lions, but if you had to pick a side, you take G2. Another bet worth taking a look at here is over 12.5 towers, since MAD are good enough to cause some damage and take down a few towers, and only “few” should be enough to cross that line.
Prediction: G2 Esports to win – 1.310 Pinnacle
Prediction: Over 12.5 turrets – 2.270 Pinnacle