LOL LEC Spring Week 8 – Day 3 Betting Previews and Predictions
Team Vitality vs Misfits Gaming
Sunday, March 14 – 17:00 CET
Misfits Gaming have won all but one of their last six games, which is quite impressive, especially considering their only loss came against G2 Esports. I continue to believe this team is very volatile, but if you win five out of six games, you have to be doing something right and I must admit, I was quite shocked how dominant Misfits have looked in their win against Fnatic yesterday.
On the other side, we have Team Vitality, who dropped the ball against Schalke 04 yesterday, and while they have looked somewhat toothless, it was mostly due to their inferior draft.
Vitality looked quite solid despite their poor record this season, but of late, I just can’t get behind the iffy drafts Vitality have been showing. If they can’t improve on that, they will have a hard time against Misfits, who are also entering this match desperate for a win.
Prediction: Misfits to win – 1.675 Pinnacle
Excel vs Schalke 04
Sunday, March 14 – 18:00 CET
Excel need to win this match to have a chance to make it into the playoffs, as well as see both SK and Misfits lose, whereas, S04 are all but guaranteed to lock in a postseason appearance.
Excel enter this match off two MASSIVE wins against Rogue and G2 Esports where they’ve showcased their best performances all season long. While I’m still not convinced Excel are better than G2 and Rogue (which they aren’t), momentum is a dangerous weapon that could help them lock in another upset win tonight.
While I can praise Excel for their performances, we can’t forget to pat S04 on the back as well. They’ve beaten Fnatic and demolished Vitality yesterday, and while those results are not nearly as impressive as that of Excel, it’s hard to not appreciate S04’s showings.
S04 are the type of team that can punish poor early-game teams – which Excel have been for the entire season up until their games with G2 and Rogue. This is a match that’s tough to call, as you either have to trust S04 to prove they’re the better team or you can believe Excel have found their stride by beating the two LEC top dogs.
If you believe Excel are really as good as they’ve proven to be of late, you can take them at a good price, but I’m not one to overreact to two (obvious) fluke wins. Excel have looked better, but overall, they are still worse than Schalke 04.
Prediction: Schalke 04 to win – 1.621 Pinnacle
Astralis vs MAD Lions
Sunday, March 14 – 19:00 CET
Ever since Astralis locked themselves out of the playoffs, they suddenly started playing much better. They’ve already beaten SK and Vitality this week fairly convincingly and while MAD are definitely the strongest of the three, I believe we haven’t seen Astralis hit their ceiling just yet.
MAD Lions enter this match off a win against G2 Esports which looks good on paper, but we have to note G2 decided to – in their own fashion – throw the game with some early-game shenanigans. In other words, I would not put too much weight on that result, but rather look at it as a gifted win to MAD.
With the current standings, this match doesn’t mean anything for MAD Lions, who will end the split in third regardless of whether they defeat Astralis or not. That doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t try to win, but I smell a clown-fiesta game, which can go either way.
Even though I believe MAD are the better team, having Astralis priced as high as 3.48 with the way they’ve been playing of late is way too high. They have the tools to keep this match close and if they can exploit MAD Lions’ shaky bottom lane, they might even come out ahead.
Prediction: Astralis to win – 3.48 Pinnacle
Prediction: Astralis +8.5 kills – 1.806 Pinnacle
G2 Esports vs SK Gaming
Sunday, March 14 – 20:00 CET
G2 Esports lost back-to-back games where they did not look like themselves and I’m still trying to figure out whether they’ve lost their fire or are they just “memeing” on everyone before they win the LEC title.
G2 Esports need this win to win the regular season, but so do SK Gaming, who just might drop put of the playoffs if they lose here. Although I don’t like to put too much emphasis on losing streaks, SK legitimately played poorly across their last four and seemed out of sync which concerns me a bit.
The biggest issue I have and have had for most of the season with SK is their poor early game, which won’t’ do them any favors against G2, who can easily exploit this weakness to close out the game well before the 30-minute mark.
In a perfect world, G2 should win this match with their eyes closed, but with the way they’ve been playing of late, I just don’t want to bet on them. Even though G2 need a win, I’m still uncertain where they took their recent games too lightly, or is there really something in the team that isn’t clicking. On top of that, there’s also the question of whether G2 really care about the regular-season title.
Fnatic vs Rogue
Sunday, March 14 – 21:00 CET
This is an interesting match in terms of the playoffs race. If G2 defeat SK Gaming, Rogue have nothing more to fight for here and that will likely show if the scenario plays out as expected. For Fnatic, their chances of making it into the postseason mostly rely on the results of other games, and even though a win here would guarantee them a spot in the final six, their future will already likely be decided before they enter the Rift.
This begs the question of what kind of a game we can expect here. Will the teams just clown around and try to entertain the fans or will they take it seriously and use this chance to warm up for the playoffs. At the same time, I don’t expect much of an effort from any team, as they will likely try to keep their playoffs strategies hidden from the public.
The result of this game will heavily rely on the team’s motivation, which we won’t know until other games play out. For that reason, I’m passing on this one.