We hit all three of our betting predictions yesterday, which was an excellent way to kick off the new split. Today we continue with our LoL LEC Summer betting preview and tips for the second day of the opening week.
Excel vs Astralis
Saturday, June 11 – 18:00 CEST
Astralis took down SK Gaming in their LEC 2021 Summer opener, but it was a complete mess of a game, and I can’t take much from it. Astralis should have probably lost, seeing how there were 3.5k gold behind at the 24-minute mark, yet they still found a way back into the game.
Excel delivered for us yesterday, keeping the match within seven kills. The game ended as expected, with Rogue’s total domination on the Rift, yet with a very low kill count (7-2). Since Excel were outclassed in all positions, this is another match you can’t take much from.
Comparing these two teams, I am far more excited about Excel. However, we’re still very early into the split, so you can’t really know what will happen, since this is still a match between two relatively weak sides.
I would have recommended a bet on Excel, but I’m not taking the favourites in a match like this one.
Misfits vs SK Gaming
Saturday, June 11 – 19:00 CEST
Misfits took down Fnatic yesterday in what wasn’t the cleanest performance from Bunnies. We got accustomed to messy games from Misfits from LEC SPring, when they lost games they should have won – this time out, it was the complete opposite.
After watching that game I can confidently say that Fnatic were the better team and should have won. After stealing that game, Misfits are now set to face a team that should have won their opener but ended up blundering.
Stil, if we compare SK Gaming and Misfits, it’s very easy to see which of the two is most likely to win. Misfits are priced as low as 1.423 to win, which is still a bit high in my book. They have better players and are overall a stronger team – not only because I am very sceptical about SK Gaming for this split.
Betting on the favourites early into the split has proven to be risky, but I’m ready to take another shot at Misfits, hoping their iffy display yesterday was just a one-off performance.
Prediction: Misfits Gaming -5.5 kills – 1.763 at Pinnacle
Rogue vs Team Vitality
Saturday, June 11 – 20:00 CEST
Team Vitality looked damn good in their win against Schalke 04, but one performance alone doesn’t convince me they’re actually a good team. As noted before, they have the talent to be competitive, and it seem like the current meta suits thier mid laner Adam “LIDER” Ilyasov, who has had a great performance on Viego.
They will now face one of the strongest and most consistent teams in the league – Rogue. I’m very bullish on this team because they will rarely get involved in “upset” matches. Rogue are very efficient in taking down weaker teams, but very rarely take down opponents who are better than them.
With this logic, backing them at 1.423 to defeat Vitality would make a lot of sense if we could say for sure that Vitality are weaker. The problem is that we (still) don’t know how good VItality actually are. This is a too risky bet for me.
G2 Esports vs Schalke 04
Saturday, June 11 – 21:00 CEST
G2 Esports are back! Well, perhaps.
G2 looked very good in their win against MAD Lions, which leaves me hopeful that they have found their form again. But we can’t draw any conclusions from the opening game of the split.
Schalke 04, on the other side, disappointed me with their showing against Vitality. That game means one of two things – either Vitality are actually that effective with their explosive playstyle, or Schalke 04 are not as good as it seemed.
Tough one to call, but I was far more impressed with G2 and what they have shown. There’s definitely a world where G2 overperformed and that they haven’t actually improved by much, but I’m ready to take a shot with them.
Bookmakers have G2 priced at 1.436, which is quite disrespectful and seems like a solid bet. While I’m not a big fan of kill handicap bets on the favourites so early, the eye test makes me confident G2 can close this one out with at least seven kills to spare.
Prediction: G2 Esports -6.5 kills – 1.769 at Pinnacle
MAD Lions vs Fnatic
Saturday, June 11 – 22:00 CEST
As noted above, Fnatic were the better team yesterday and looked extremely good in the early game. But threw their lead away and ended up with their first loss of the split.
MAD Lions lost against G2 Esports, but it wasn’t like they played poorly. The reigning champions played well and deserved a lot of praise – they were simply the worse team that day.
Fnatic are priced at 2.76 to defeat MAD Lions, which is a very good offer. I have spent more time than what I would care to admit contemplating taking Fnatic here, but I just don’t feel it.
Fnatic might have lost against Misfits, but they have played much better than the Fnatic of LEC 2021 Spring. They looked much more coordinated and had better macro, which leaves me very excited about this side and their growth this split.
At the same time, MAD Lions haven’t performed that poorly against G2 either, and they were a clear cut above Fnatic last split. The question is whether Fnatic’s improvement with the roster change was enough to close that gap?