Betting-Previews.com is back again with a League of Legends European Championship (LEC) 2021 Summer betting previews and predictions for the opening round of Week 4 bouts.
LEC Summer Week 4 – Day 1
When: Friday, July 2 – 18:00 – 22:00 CEST
Number of Games: 5
The fourth week of LEC 2021 Summer begins today, on Saturday, July 2, with the same 10 teams, and a new patch. As of Tuesday, June 22, the game has introduced a Patch 11.13. albeit it won’t be until today that the teams will play on the updated version.
The game’s update will introduce several changes, but not significant enough for it to shake up the balance of power in the league. Teams that were strong will remain at the top, however, it will be interesting to see whether Aphelion buffs will be enough for the champion to re-enter the completive meta – let’s just hope we aren’t in for the “200 Years for Experience” Vol.2.
Astralis vs Team Vitality
Friday, July 2 – 18:00 CEST
The problem I have with Team Vitality is that I have completely no clue whether this team is good or whether they’re simply enjoying a hot streak. As mentioned before, the Bees have the talent to be competitive, and if their five members can reach their peak, this squad will be deadly.
On the other side, if we look at the type of characters on this team and their playstyle leads me to believe that Vitality will be a very momentum-driven side. Similar to MAD Lions, Vitality will have streaks of good and bad form, which was already displayed to some degree so far this split.
Astralis, on the other side, are a squad that clearly lacks individual talent, yet they held on surprisingly well for the first three weeks of play. Most of it has to do with their confident approach to drafting, where they’re not afraid to use unusual picks to gain edges. However, if we draw a line, the lack of individual talent will likely prevent them from achieving much by the end of the summer season.
Even though I am not too big on Astralis, they tend to keep their games close and look somewhat solid even in their losses. Their average kill margin in losses is just under seven kills, which makes them a solid pick as an underdog with a kill handicap.
That said, Vitality are way too explosive for me to recommend that bet at the offered odds (1.917 at Pinnacle). There is a chance where Astralis prove to be a nuisance for Vitality and force a close game, but with the form the Bees have been showing, it’s equally as likely that we’ll see a complete stomp by Vitality.
You could look to take Under 25.5 kills, which is a high number for the current meta, but due to Vitality’s unpredictable style, and Astralis’ ability to stretch this game out, I see no value with this bet.
SK Gaming vs Rogue
Friday, July 2 – 19:00 CEST
There’s no use to beat around the bush here; Rogue are a significantly better team than SK Gaming and remain a very consistent team – even though they don’t seem as convincing as they were towards the end of the LEC 2021 Spring.
Rogue might not be a very flashy team, but they are extremely efficient in gaining gold leads and slowly choking out their opponents – which is a style they have been using last term as well. In fact, the numbers suggest that Rogue are even more effective in this playstyle than how they were last split, which is quite impressive.
Just to put it into perspective, Rogue’s Gold Difference numbers at 10, 15, and 20 minutes show +975, +2517, +2700. In comparison to SK Gaming’s -610, -1260, -910. These numbers clearly show what I have already stated above, but you wouldn’t need to know them had you watched any of these teams’ games this split.
SK Gaming are priced as heavy underdogs (4.980 at Pinnacle), which seems a bit high for a best-of-one (Bo1) bout, where upsets aren’t that uncommon. However, even this price isn’t enough for me to fade Rogue, who are a the whole another level than SK Gaming.
The kill handicap might appeal to some since 9.5 is quite a big number, but I would not recommend it given the quality gap between these two teams. Rogue will smash this game.
Misfits vs MAD Lions
Friday, July 2 – 20:00 CEST
As the reigning LEC champions, MAD Lions have yet to show their LEC 2021 Spring form and aren’t quite as convincing as they were a few months back. This is still an overall solid team, but their tendency to shot themselves in the foot doesn’t inspire much confidence.
it would also be hard to say that MAD Lions displayed any form of “good form” of late, which is another big reason why I like Misfits better. The Bunnies defeated Schalke 04 on Saturday to extend their streak to three consecutive wins.
Despite their loss to Rogue in LEC 2021 Summer Week 2 opener, Misfits are legitimately a good team that have yet to show any major flaws. Their only loss (against Rogue) of the split was completely undeserved, since Misfits were the better team on the day and would have won had Rogue not executed the game-changing Fiddlestick ult.
Misfits enter this match as an underdog (1.943 at Pinnacle), which makes no sense. Even though you could argue that MAD Lions field better individual talent, they have been cold of late and haven’t been playing as well as Misfits.
G2 Esports vs Excel Esports
Friday, July 2 – 21:00 CEST
I wouldn’t want to say that G2 Esports’ era of dominance has met its end, but if this season is any indication, that just might be the case. As noted by G2 Esports’ jungler Marcin “Jankos” Jankowski in one of his Twitch streams, it’s not like G2 have become worse, but that the rest of the league has improved.
He’s right to some degree. The LEC has become far more competitive than how it was over the last few years; however, I have a hard time defending G2 Esports for what they have been showing of late.
G2 Esports’ dominance over the years came primarily from their unmatched ability to transition from early to mid game and rotate around the map much more efficiently than any other European LoL team. This, however, is no longer the case.
G2 stagnated and haven’t improved much for the past two years, which allowed other LEC teams to catch up and surpass them. I guess that’s the price you have to pay when you’re at the top for so long that you don’t feel like you need to work on improving.
On a more positive note, G2 still have excellent players who do exceptionally well in the early game and rarely underperform during the laning phase. It isn’t until the mid-late game that G2’s cracks start to show. I still expect G2 to improve as the season goes on, but I have serious doubts whether they will manage to challenge for the title.
Excel aren’t a very good team, and that’s putting it lightly. They lack in all areas of the game and haven’t shown anything outside of their upset win against MAD Lions, granted it was more MAD Lions shooting themselves in the foot rather than Excel outperforming them.
What I do like about Excel is their drafting and ability to gain edges even before the game starts. That, however, hasn’t helped them too much mainly because they lack in other areas of the game.
Given how shaky G2 have been, you could make a case for Excel at 5.00 (on Bet365), but the eye test leads me to believe this is not the right call. G2 can stumble, but Excel haven’t shown enough for me to believe they can take advantage of G2’s misplays.
Fnatic vs Schalke 04
Friday, July 2 – 22:00 CEST
Fnatic’s improvement from their run through LEC 2021 Spring is incredible, to say the least. As I noted in LEC 2021 Summer preview, there was a slight chance that Fnatic will improve with the role swap, and that’s exactly what has happened.
Last split, Fnatic were a complete coin-flip team. Now, they’re one of the most disciplined and patient teams in the league – the best part is that they’ve kept their LEC 2021 Spring aggression albeit transformed it into a “calculated aggression“.
It’s still very early into the season, but if Fnatic can keep playing this way, they will reach very deep into the playoffs and perhaps even challenge their eighth LEC title. That is if they can overcome Misfits.
I feel like it’s important to note that Schalke 04 are selling their LEC spot to Team BDS for the 2022 season. Although not exactly crucial information for this prediction, it might have affected the player’s motivation, considering most of them will be without a contract in a few months time.
Schalke 04 Esports are not playing very well this split, although I would still rank them above the LEC bottom-feeders in Astralis and Excel. That’s not something to write home about, but at least S04 aren’t the worst team in the league.
Comparing these two teams is like night and day. Fnatic are on a roll, whereas S04 have yet to find their footing, and they likely won’t against what is currently one of the top-two teams in the league.
The gap between these two sides is big enough for me to look at Fnatic with a -7.5 kill handicap (1.793 at Pinnacle), but not at this price. Take the obvious value on Bet365 (1.90), but I wouldn’t recommend it at lower odds than that.
Odds are correct as of Friday, July 2 at 11:30 CEST
