Betting-Previews.com brings you betting previews and tips for the second day of League of Legends European Championship (LEC) 2021 Summer Week 4.
LEC Summer Week 4 – Day 2
When: Saturday, July 3 – 17:00 – 21:00 CEST
Number of Games: 5
Ten of the best European LoL teams enter the final day of LEC 2021 Summer Week 4 following a day of upsets, which saw Astralis, Schalke 04 and Excel claim unexpected wins. While those were upsets on paper, it’s hard to say the three underdogs didn’t deserve to win.
Outside of the bottom team in SK Gaming, the remaining LEC teams seem fairly evenly matched, which is more an indication of the league becoming far more competitive rather than top dogs underperforming. Whether that means that Europe will have a better chance at winning the LoL World Championship is anyone’s guess, but it definitely makes the league far more entertaining to follow.
Excel vs Team Vitality
Saturday, July 3 – 17:00 CEST
Team Vitality got smacked around by Astralis yesterday, which shouldn’t surprise anyone. We talked about how Vitality are a strong team on paper, but are not a side you should trust too much due to their volatile style of play.
It was still a fairly unexpected win for Astralis, but they played well and took advantage of all Vitality’s mistakes to end the day on a high note. Similarly, Excel picked up a surprise win against G2 Esports; granted with how poorly G2 have been playing this split; it was only a matter of time before they lose against a heavy outsider.
Considering Excel’s success yesterday, it would make sense to look at them as potential punch-up underdogs for this match. The British esports organisation enter this bout as a 3.180 (Pinnacle) underdogs, whereas Vitality are priced at 1.363.
At this price, you either take Excel to cause another upset or side with Vitality with a kill handicap. In a perfect world, Vitality win this game with ease; however, the Bees have the tendency to beat themselves, so it’s hard to make a case for them to end the game with eight kills to spare at 1.917.
A bet on Excel is far more appealing, but with it, you’re essentially hoping that Vitality shoot themselves in the foot again. I’m a bit unconvinced with Excel’s ability to be competitive in games where they aren’t given free leads, especially with the new players on the team – don’t overreact to one win against G2.
Vitality should win, but until they show a bit more consistency, it’s not wise to back them with such a high kill handicap.
Schalke 04 vs Astralis
Saturday, July 3 – 18:00 CEST
Schalke 04 beat Fnatic yesterday thanks to their bottom lane and a very interesting Twisted Fate pick from Ilias “NUCLEARINT” Bizriken, who proved to be too much to handle for the seven-time LEC champions. Putting their mid laner on Twisted Fate allowed S04 to pressure Fnatic throughout the early game, leading to easy access to dragons and eventually securing all five of them.
Schalke 04 played well, but it was more their superior draft that allowed them to look dominant rather than the individual showings from their players.
Astralis picked up a very convincing win against Team Vitality yesterday, and while the Bees did their part in helping Astralis look as good as they did, Nikolay “Zanzarah” Akatov and co. still played much better than expected.
There’s not a lot to separate these two teams. Schalke 04 might have impressed more yesterday, but as noted, it was largely due to their superior team composition. What’s more, if we look at Astralis and Schalke 04′ performances throughout the season, Astralis have been a more consistent team.
This seems like a complete coin-flip match. Schalke 04 might have a slight edge due to individual quality, whereas it’s Astralis who play with more confidence and are really not that far behind Schalke 04 pound-per-pound. At 2.20 (Pinnacle), you have to take Astralis.
SK Gaming vs Fnatic
Saturday, July 3 – 19:00 CEST
SK Gaming enter this match off a devastating loss against Rogue, who won the match without any real issues. It was a textbook victory from Rogue, who started a bit slow and allowed SK Gaming to stack dragons while taking down turrets and accumulating gold lead.
It was as close to a perfect game as it can get, and if Rogue managed to beat SK in that fashion, so can Fnatic.
Fnatic lost against Schalke 04 yesterday, but as mentioned above, it was more of a draft difference that led to that unfortunate outcome. Fnatic had a few iffy moments, so I can’t really defend them for losing, but they’re still a class above SK Gaming.
Fnatic enter this match as 1.265 (Pinnacle) favourites, which makes a lot of sense, but at this price, betting on them to do what they’re supposed to do in a best-of-one (Bo1) isn’t a very appealing option. Alternatively, you could look at a -9.5 kill handicap, but this is a very high number.
It really comes down to what version of Fnatic we will see today. If they can pick themselves up, Fnatic should win with ease, but there’s definitely a world where SK Gaming force a bit tighter affair. They might have lost seven out of eight games in the summer season, but SK have the tools to keep their losses relatively close score-wise.
Misfits vs G2 Esports
Saturday, July 3 – 20:00 CEST
G2 Esports are 4-4 on the season and 0-3 in their last three fixtures. Despite their shaky performances, they’re still priced as 1.869 (Pinnacle) favourites for this match, which makes completely no sense.
As noted before, G2 have the talent, but they don’t show it. Looking at the betting odds, it seems like the bookmakers seem to overvalue G2 based on their success over the years but fail to recognise how much this team has been struggling this (and last) split.
Even in LEC 2021 Spring, G2 struggled quite a bit, yet they still entered the LEC 2021 Summer as the main betting favourites to win the trophy. This further confirms that G2 are overvalued.
Misfits might have lost yesterday, but you can’t really expect them to do well with Camille-Lee Sin-LeBlanc versus Wukong-Viego-Humanoid. It was a bit of a “draft diff”, which allowed MAD Lions to outscale the Bunnies and secure a fairly convincing win.
We can’t know whether Misfits will learn from their mistakes and draft better today, but it’s undeniable that Misfits are playing much better tha G2. Their only losses came against Rogue and MAD Lions, which are currently a class above G2.
There is no explanation why Misfits are priced as an underdog here.
MAD Lions vs Rogue
Saturday, July 3 – 21:00 CEST
MAD Lions and Rogue are both playing well and have kept their tag as two of the best LEC teams. They got joined by Fnatic and Misfits for this split, so it will be interesting to see which of the four will hoist the trophy in August.
Rogue enter this match as a 1.680 (Pinnacle) favourite, which seems like a fair price in my book. They are coming off a clean victory against SK Gaming. Although I don’t expect them to look as clean against other, top-tier, teams, that match proved just how good Rogue can be.
MAD Lions did not disappoint yesterday either. They are still a team that can beat themselves, but what we have seen from MAD against Misfits was probably their best game of the season.
As a rematch from the LEC 2021 Spring finals, Rogue have some unfinished business with MAD Lions, who reverse-swept them to steal the trophy. This should help Rogue shift into a higher gear for this bout, potentially making them even deadlier than how they were yesterday – it’s quite fitting that MAD Lions found their stride just in time for this long-awaited rematch.
f I had to pick a side, I would take Rogue, largely because they looked more consistent throughout the season and the slim chance that MAD Lions could beat themselves here. However, there’s no value in backing the favourites at this price.
Odds are correct as of Saturday, July 3, at 12:00 CEST
