Betting-previews.com returns with another weekly coverage of League of Legends European Championship (LEC) 2021 Summer bouts. Today, we take a look at the opening five games of Week 5, slated for Friday, July 9.
LEC Summer Week 5 – Day 1
When: Friday, July 9 – 18:00 – 22:00 CEST
Number of Games: 5
While the LoL Championship Series (LCS) teams continue to swap out their rosters, trying to find the winning recipe, the LEC sides haven’t made any notable changes to their teams ahead of the fifth week of play. The only exception are Team Vitality, who decided to recall Mathias “Szygenda” Jensen from the academy team as they look to strengthen their top side.
SK Gaming vs Schalke 04
Friday, July 9 – 18:00 CEST
Schalke 04 beat Fnatic last week, but followed that up with a loss to Astralis, securing their third 1-1 week of the summer season. With their win against Fnatic, Schalke 04 are now 1-3 across the last four outings, which includes losses to Rogue and Misfits back during LEC 2021 Summer Week 3.
SK Gaming were not nearly as impressive last time out, losing to Fnatic and Rogue quite convincingly. Across the last two competitive weeks, SK Gaming managed only one win against Excel Esports, which is also their only win of the season so far.
Schalke 04’s win against Fnatic was somewhat lucky, but you have to give the Germans some praise for their team composition. They used Kindred and Galio, which is a good combination that you could argue gave them an edge over the surging Fnatic.
SK Gaming’s losses to Fnatic and Rogue don’t surprise me, nor does it shock me to see that SK Gaming lost those games with 6-21 and 1-12, respectively. Results like that clearly show that SK gaming don’t belong anywhere near the upper part of the table, granted that should have been very obvious even before their LEC 2021 Summer Week 4 matches.
As you would expect, SK Gaming’s metrics are one of the worst in the league. They still hold a relatively solid early-game rating (45.7); the number takes into account SK Gaming’s early-season matches where they looked good in the early game.
If we look at only numbers from Week 3 onwards, SK Gaming’s early-game rating drops to 40.3, which is the second-worst number in the league, better than only Astralis at 25.3. As far as mid-late-game metrics are concerned, SK Gaming hold the third-worst MLR (-15.3) in the league across the last two weeks.
On the topic of mid-late and early-game ratings across the last three weeks, Schalke 04 haven’t done much better. They’re the third-worst early-game team (41.0 EGR) and the second-worst mid-late game team (-16 MLR). You could argue that Schalke 04 had to face tough opponents, but so did SK Gaming.
The eye-test would suggest Schalke 04 win this match, not necessarily because they’re a better team, but primarily because SK Gaming are that much worse. However, the offered betting odds on Schalke (1.568 at Pinnacle) aren’t high enough for us to justify a bet on them.
MAD Lions vs Excel Esports
Friday, July 9 – 19:00 CEST
Excel enter LEC 2021 Summer Week 5 after beating G2 Esports and Team Vitality. They looked good in both games, which mostly had to do with outstanding performances of their newly-promoted duo in jungler Mark “Markoon” van Woensel and support Henk “Advienne” Reijenga.
While you can praise both academy players for their showings, two games are way too small of a sample size for us to say whether they’re really as good as they seemed to be. Markoon is definitely an upgrade to Daniel “Dan” Hockley, who hasn’t been a good jungler in a very long time, but only time will tell whether he is really that big of an upgrade as it seemed last week.
Despite their phenomenal performances last week, Excel enter this match as heavy underdogs (3.980 at Pinnacle). They’re facing MAD Lions, who are one of the top teams in the league, but also a team that can have their moments of weakness.
I can understand why many people will be high on Excel after their showings in Week 4, but I wouldn’t overreact to two games. Those games were flukes, and while Excel looked better, you have to consider that they faced the struggling G2 Esports, who then went on to throw their game against Misfits.
You would obviously expect MAD Lions to win here, since I don’t expect Excel’s showing last week are any indication of long-term success. However, Excel’s number against MAD Lions is very high given how competitive the LEC has become.
Excel’s only chance to defeat MAD Lions is if the latter choke, or if they just say “f*uck it” and go for a hyper-aggressive composition and turn this into a bloody affair. That’s definitely something we can expect.
Last week, Excel opted for Draven as their ADC, which is a very obvious aggressive, early-game oriented pick and perhaps an indication of a changing playstyle.
A smaller position on Excel at 3.980 is worth a go. No team in the LEC should be priced as high as Excel.
Rogue vs Misfits Gaming
Friday, July 9 – 20:00 CEST
Rogue enter this match as favourites (1.502 at Pinnacle), which might seem a bit off given how solid Misfits Gaming have been this season, however, I would view the number as fair. Even though Misfits are tied for first heading into LEC 2021 Summer Week 5, they were a bit lucky to win against G2 Esports, and even that’s an understatement.
Realistically, Misfits should have lost that game, and you can’t argue with that. They were over 10k gold down and in an unsalvageable position. But then G2 decided to “run it down” with very questionable play – recalling instead of taking Elder Drake and fighting Misfits while they had the Elder buff.
It was a level of decision making you wouldn’t expect from a professional team, let alone the most successful European LoL team in history. Before that win. Misfits lost to MAD Lions quite convincingly.
MAD Lions were the better team on the day and while some of it had to do with some early-game misplays from Misfits, I wouldn’t call that game a fluke of any sort.
Misfits are still a great team, but they’re not at the level of Rogue. Last season’s finalists lead the league in several metrics and are looking like the best team in the LEC.
Rogue are ranked first in early-game rating (78.5), third in mid-late rating (78.5), first in GD@15 (+2269), have a 100% First Turret rate, 75% First Drake Rate, are second in Drake control rate (69%) and lead the LEC in Baron Control (86%).
In contrast, Misfits’ are third in early-game rating (58.1), fourth in mid-late game rating (16.9), second in GD@15 (+1283), have a 75% First Turret rate, 50% First Drake Rate, are third in Drake control rate (53%) and only 40% Baron Control.
I fully expect Rogue to win here, but there is not enough value for us to recommend a bet on them. I expected Rogue to be priced at 1.50, and they’re just around that number.
Team Vitality vs Fnatic
Friday, July 9 – 21:00 CEST
Team Vitality brought in Mathias “Szygenda” Jensen from the academy league to replace Enzo “SLT” Gonzalez, which is a positive change in my book. SLT hasn’t been performing well this split, and bringing in Szygenda back to their LEC roster makes a lot of sense – since it didn’t make much sense to replace him with SLT, to begin with.
SLT averaged the worst metrics in the league out of all top laners, and while his numbers are a bit skewed since he had to play Lulu top, even if we take that into account, he is hardly any better than the eight-best top laner in the league.
Szygenda was a solid top laner last season, and I expect him to add a bit more stability to Vitality’s top lane. Still, he is facing Adam “Adam” Maanane, who is one of the best top laners in the league.
His numbers aren’t very impressive since he doesn’t average very high laning stats; however, he has the highest Damage per minute (DPM) out of any top laners and has by far the most solo kills. That confirms that Adam is a very aggressive player, ready to give up CS to kill his opponents.
Outside of the top lane matchup – which should favour Fnatic – the boys in orange should have an edge in all other lanes as well. But their individual quality isn’t the only thing that makes me bullish on Fnatic for this match.
Fnatic might have a bit lower early-game rating (49.4 – fifth-best in the league) but lead the LEC in late-game metrics (25.1), which puts them above Rogue. Even their gold stats are very impressive – including lane control and jungle control, which is indicative of good teams. They also hold a 10.8% GSPD (average gold spent percentage difference), which is a number you would expect to see from a team that is much better than just 6-3.
Fnatic are a much better team than what their record would suggest, and you could argue that they should have won at least two more bouts. Their loss to Schalke 04 was somewhat unlucky since S04 players managed to escape fights with “1 hp” a couple of times in the early game, which obviously gave them the needed lead to upset Fnatic.
I don’t see how Vitality can win here. Although they’re volatile and aggressive enough to have a slim chance of outperforming Fnatic in the early game and snowball to a victory, Fnatic seem way too solid to give up an easy win today.
G2 Esports vs Astralis
Friday, July 9 – 22:00 CEST
This is a spot where you take Astralis if you believe G2 Esports are now a terrible team. I don’t believe that G2’s recent slump is any indication of their lack of quality.
Yes, G2 Esports produced a complete mess last week when they lost to Misfits Gaming. However, G2 were 10k gold ahead and should have won that game 99% of the time from the position they were in.
It’s easy to point fingers at G2 for losing that game and say that they’re no longer one of the top teams, but this is a complete overreaction. Marcin “Jankos” Jankowski has had a few “meh” games recently, but it mostly has to do with the meta not suiting him – still, he is one of the top-four junglers in the league.
This match is not so much about whether G2 can win, but rather what can Astralis do to cause an upset. We weren’t too high on Astralis heading into the LEC 2021 Summer, and I don’t see this team as a serious playoffs candidate.
They are 4-5 on the season, which is great, but realistically, they shouldn’t be ranked higher than G2 Esports (4-5), Team Vitality (4-5), and Schalke 04 (3-6). Last week they won against Vitality, where they looked decent, but then went on to steal a game from Schalke 04 after a very questionable engage from the German side at the 35-minute mark.
Astralis aren’t nearly as good as their summer season record would suggest. In a way, they’re opposite of Fnatic, whose record does not show how good they really are. G2 Esports seem way overpriced, which is a complete exaggeration of their last week’s performances. And even there, they were the better team for 99% of the game.
Betting Odds are correct as of Friday, July 9 at 16:15 CEST
