Betting-previews.com brings you another weekly coverage of League of Legends European Championship (LEC) 2021 Summer bouts. Today, we take a look at the final five games of LEC 2021 Summer Week 5, slated for Saturday, July 10.
LEC Summer Week 5 – Day 2
When: Saturday, July 10 – 17:00 – 21:00 CEST
Number of Games: 5
The final day of LEC 2021 Summer Week 5 is here, and with it, one last chance for the teams to prove their worth before the league enters the final three weeks of the season. With the race for the playoffs heating up, we can expect a bit more cautious approach from top teams that have yet to secure a comfortable spot, and a bit more aggressive approach from the underdogs who will rely on chaos to upset the top dogs.
SK Gaming vs Team Vitality
Saturday, July 10 – 17:00 CEST
Vitality lost to Fnatic quite convincingly. The Bees didn’t play particularly poorly, nor do I see any problems with their draft for that game. Fnatic were simply the better team on the day, which further confirms what was already said yesterday about Fnatic’s strength which doesn’t necessarily show in their current standings.
SK Gaming started the first day of LEC 2021 Summer Week 6 with an upset win against Schalke 04, and ended the day as the only LEC underdog to win their bout. It was a solid performance from SK; however, it was mostly Schalke 04 running it down.
Even though SK Gaming looked very dominant in their win against Schalke 04, we should take that result with a grain of salt. Outside of Sergen “Broken Blade”Çelik, not a single player on S04 played well that day, and it’s very easy to look good against a team that underperforms.
Vitality enter this match as favourites which seems fair. They’re a more talented team and the most likely victors. The problem with Vitality when faced with a heavy underdog like SK, however, is their tendency to be overly aggressive, which often results in way too many deaths.
That’s exactly what happened last week when Vitality lost to Astralis (5-17) and Excel Esports (6-22), granted it’s fair to say that Excel and Astralis are stronger than SK.
Even though Vitality can have very high highs, they can also have low lows, which makes them a perfect team to bet against when priced as the favourites. They’re at 1.390 (Pinnacle) against SK, which overrates them a bit.
A fairer price would sit somewhere at 1.60, since Vitality are more than capable of giving up too much in the early game and struggle to come back. We’re taking SK Gaming with a 6.5 kill advantage although you can’t go wrong with a smaller position on SK as well (3.40 at Bet365)
Schalke 04 vs MAD Lions
Saturday, July 10 – 18:00 CEST
MAD Lions won against Excel Esports yesterday, but they weren’t as dominant as many expected them to be. That isn’t much of a testament to MAD Lions’ lack of talent, as it’s a clear indication of Excel’s improvement as a team.
Although Excel managed to keep the match close and were in an excellent position to win, MAD Lions came out ahead after they won a crucial teamfight in the 38th minute. It’s an often overlooked quality in teams, but teamfighting does win you games – and is one of the main reasons why G2 Esports were so dominant over the years.
As talked about above, Schalke 04 lost to SK Gaming. They had a terrible performance all round and are now 1-7 in their last eight. The only win during that stretch was a fluke win against Fnatic last Friday.
Schalke 04 are similar to Counter Logic Gaming over in the LCS. They have enough talent to be a decent team, but they struggle to show it. Much of S04’s struggles are due to the poor performances of their jungler Thomas “Kirei” Yuen.
I’m not trying to hate on the guy, but it’s hard to understand why S04 keep playing with him and have Erberk “Gilius” Demir benched. Although I believe Gilius is a bit overrated largely because he only seems to be remembered for his good performances, the German veteran is still a much better option for Schalke if they wish to compete for a playoffs spot. I expect Schalke 04 to swap out the two soon.
MAD Lions should have the edge over Schalke 04 across all lanes. You could argue that the top lane matchup will favour Schalke 04 slightly, but as soon as the junglers get involved, the scale will tip in favour of MAD Lions.
If S04 had a better jungler, I would definitely consider a position on Schalke 04 with a kill handicap, since MAD Lions tend to give up way too many kills. However, with how poorly Kirei has been performing, you can expect MAD Lions to put Javier “Elyoya” Prades Batalla on a carry jungler and allow him to take over the game.
After S04’s showings, you wouldn’t bet on them to defeat MAD Lions. At the same time, the betting odds on the favourites aren’t too appealing. You could look to take MAD Lions with a -6.5 kill handicap; however, this is still a team that gives up way too many deaths (14/game on the season), which makes this option not as inviting.
A scenario that is likely to happen here is Schalke 04 playing a very late-game, scaling composition. They know that their chances to defeat MAD Lions are slim, and situations like that often result in underdogs playing for the late game.
Schalke still have Dylan “Dylan Falco” Falco as their coach, and with the experience and success he has had over the years, it’s hard to underestimate S04 even though their showings on the Rift yesterday were terrible. If S04 opt for a scaling composition and survive through the early game, an upset win isn’t too unlikely.
The big issue with this potential scenario is the jungle gap. Junglers dictate the pace of the game, and unless Kirei steps up (or Schalke 04 call in Gillius), Elyoya will speed up the game enough to deny Schalke 04’s win condition.
The offered betting odds are fair. No Bet.
Misfits Gaming vs Astralis
Saturday, July 10 – 19:00 CEST
It’s hard to not be impressed with Astralis’ performances this season. Yes, they might lack star names, but their decision making, macro play and overall resistance makes them a very exciting underdog to follow.
Yesterday, Astralis lost to G2 Esports, which isn’t too surprising, but they held on well and kept G2 within a 2k gold deficit for nearly 25 minutes. I wasn’t too impressed with the performances of Astralis mid-bottom lanes, but you have to give Nikolay “Zanzarah” Akatov and Matti “WhiteKnight” Sormunen some praise for their performances.
Misfits Gaming played Rogue yesterday and came up short. Misfits played well that day, and it’s hard to find any major flaws in their approach – they were simply the second-best team that day.
As noted before, Rogue are the best team in the league currently, so seeing Misfits lose against them isn’t that concerning. Misfits might be below Rogue, but they’re still a class above the mid-table teams.
Misfits enter this match as favourites (1.324 Pinnacle), which doesn’t surprise me. However, I like Astralis who shouldn’t be priced as high as they are – it seems like the odds fail to recognise Astralis’ improvement.
Astralis like to play very aggressive LoL, likely because they know that they’re the underdogs and the only way an underdog can upset the favourites is to either pick a very late-game composition or go all in from minute one and look for opportunities to close out the game quickly. It again depends on the opponents you’re going to face.
Misfits like to play for scaling, which has worked for them this split, but in a situation where Astralis go for a hyper-aggressive early-game composition, Misfits could find themselves with their backs against the wall, as their win condition will solely rely on avoiding early skirmishes – which is difficult to do against Astralis.
It’s hard to pass on an option to back a team that is ready to fight early and gain early leads at 3.41. Astralis have a solid win condition that they should execute, primarily due to the favourable stylistic matchup.
Fnatic vs Excel Esports
Saturday, July 10 – 19:00 CEST
Fnatic took care of business yesterday when they outperformed Vitality. They won with relative ease and while they have had a few iffy moments, we’re now really starting to split hair if we want to find a flaw in Fnatic.
They’re playing like one of the best teams in the league, and while you could argue that Fnatic are still weaker than Rogue, it’s hard to view them as anything less than a top-three team. Their next opponents, Excel Esports, have had a resurgence with the arrival of two academy players and continue to impress with their showings.
Excel looks like a completely new team with two new players, and we mean that in the best possible way. They might have lost to MAD Lions yesterday, but as mentioned above, Excel have done a tremendous job keeping MAD Lions close until that unfortunate teamfight in the 38th minute.
As talked about in our LEC 2021 Summer Week 6 Day 1 betting preview, Excel can be a very aggressive early-game team, which is an approach they too against MAD Lions. It worked well for them, and we can expect something similar today.
The question is whether that will be enough to upset Fnatic, and while it might, it’s very hard to make a case for Excel for this match. The eye test proved Fnatic are too good for us to believe that Excel have a legitimate chance to cause an upset.
G2 Esports vs Rogue
Saturday, July 10 – 20:00 CEST
LEC Match of The Week and one you surely wouldn’t want to miss. G2 Esports enter this bout as underdogs (2.30 Pinnacle), which seem fair given their struggles over the year, but this is a very generous price on a team that is just as talented as their opponents.
If we compare Rogue and G2 in LEC 2021 Summer metrics, the former come out ahead by a mile.
Rogue hold the league-highest 1.50 Gold Percent Rating, are first in early-game rating (71.2 EGR), second in the mid-late game rating (8.8 MLR), boast a scary +2400 GD@15 and claim the first three turrets in 90% of their games.
The only game where Rogue haven’t managed to claim the first three turrets was yesterday when they faced Misfits Gaming. In that very same game, Rogue also struggled to show the same early-game power (51.5 EGR), but they were significantly better in the mid-late game (90.3 MLR) than their season average.
G2 Esports beat Astralis yesterday, ending their four-game losing streak. They played well, and while you could argue that Astralis aren’t a very strong team, that isn’t exactly the case, so it wouldn’t be fair to say that G2 had it easy.
For this match it’s important to consider two things. This is a match between two of the strongest LEC teams, which usually results in a more cautious playstyle – unlike what you would see in games between underdogs and favourites.
Furthermore, we’re nearing the end of the season, which makes each game that much more important to win. As stated by Rasmus “Caps” Borregaard Winther in a post-game interview, G2 are aware that they must avoid dropping any more games at all cost, as they are in serious danger of losing their playoffs spot or their chances to claim a favourable seeding.
Due to the things mentioned, we can expect a slower game, which isn’t likely to produce many kills nor any coin-flip scenarios that could spiral it out of control. Late-game compositions are likely on the cards, as neither team is really known for early-game aggression.
G2 Esports could win here, since they historically do well against Rogue, but if we go on the form these two teams have been showing this season, it’s hard to make a case for G2 at 2.30. We need to see a bit more from G2 against a strong team.
Betting Odds are correct as of Saturday, July 10 at 13:15 CEST
