Betting-previews.com returns with League of Legends coverage for the opening round of LoL European Championship (LEC) 2021 Summer Week 6. Here are our betting previews for five games played on Friday, July 16.
LEC Summer Week 6 – Day 1
When: Friday, July 16 – 18:00 – 21:00 CEST
Number of Games: 5
The European LoL league returns with the opening round of LEC 2021 Summer Week 6 on Friday, July 16. Most underdogs have been performing better than expected throughout the season, but their success today will mostly come down to whether they can find weaknesses – there are a couple of teams that check that mark.
Misfits Gaming vs Excel Esports
Friday, July 16 – 18:00 CEST
Excel Esports enter this match as 2.90 (Pinnacle) underdogs, and it’s easy to see why many people are high on this team. Since the introduction of Mark “Markoon” van Woensel and Henk “Advienne” Reijenga to the roster, Excel have been playing much better and went 2-2, which is a solid run for a team of this calibre.
Last week, Excel lost to MAD Lions and Fnatic, which was expected; however, I wouldn’t say that Excel player poorly in either of those bouts. In fact, Excel played significantly better than what the final score would suggest, averaging a 2.38 Gold Percentage Rating and 13.8% Average Gold Spent Percentage Difference – two highest marks across all LEC teams last week.
In more simple terms, Excel spent the most gold of any team in their games and held the highest percentage of gold in their games.
Knowing that would make you wonder how did Excel end up losing, considering they were the team with a gold advantage in both of their bouts. It all came down to the individual quality gap, which was fairly noticeable in teamfights. You could also blame some of Excel’s lack of success for their lack of attention to drakes.
Regardless of those two losses, Excel looked solid and are definitely on the right path to secure the organisation’s first playoffs.
Misfits were just as unsuccessful as Excel last week, losing to Astralis and Rogue, marking their first 0-2 week of the summer season. That, however, doesn’t surprise me too much.
The Bunnies looked excellent early into the split, but at the time, they haven’t really faced any tough opponent. Yes, they went 6-1 across the first three weeks, but their wins came against SK Gaming, Vitality, Astralis, Excel Esports, Schalke 04, and Fnatic, who they beat on the opening day of the season.
In LEC 2021 Summer Week 4, Misfits lost to MAD Lions and stunned G2 Esports; however, that was at the time when G2 were struggling.
If we draw a line, Misfits haven’t beaten a strong team or, better said, a strong team that wasn’t struggling with their form. So the question here is whether that presents us with any value at 2.90 to back the outsiders.
The odds seem to be where they should be for this match, however, you should definitely consider a bet on bet365, who have Excel priced at 3.40, which is way too high considering Misfit’s regression and Excel’s improvement. Excel’s iffy late-game team fights against Fnatic leave me somewhat concerned with how they’ll do against Misfits, but considering Fnatic are a much stronger team than Misfits, 3.40 is an excellent price on the outsiders.
Schalke 04 vs Rogue
Friday, July 16 – 19:00 CEST
This is easily the biggest mismatch of the day and a match that Rogue should win without any issues. And it’s not only because Rogue are currently playing like the best team in the league, but primarily because Schalke 04 are playing like (by far) the worst team in the LEC.
The biggest quality gap in this match will be the jungle matchup where Thomas “Kirei” Yuen will have to take on Kacper “Inspired” Słoma, and we all know how that went last time out. Even in other lanes, Rogue field significantly better players, although you could make a case for Schalke 04 in the top lane.
Sergen “Broken Blade” Çelik is the only player on the team who is performing well, but he alone can’t help S04 escape the slump they’re currently in.
There’s not too much to analyse here; Rogue are one of the main favourites for the title, whereas this is Schalke 04’s last season in the LEC as an organisation, and are 3-8 on the season. Rogue should smash this game; however, I wouldn’t want to take them with a kill handicap.
Rogue are generally a slow team that won’t chase kills but rather choke out opponents with superior macro play. This match could easily end in a 10-2 in favour of Rogue.
SK Gaming vs MAD Lions
Friday, July 16 – 20:00 CEST
Like the Schalke 04 vs Rogue match, this one is extremely one-sided, as indicated by the betting odds. MAD Lions are priced as massive favourites at 1.209 (Pinnacle), while SK Gaming are at 4.57 (Pinnacle). A relatively large gap, but a fair price.
A bet on MAD Lions to cover the 8.5 kill line (1.800 Pinnacle) would make sense, if MAD Lions were a bit more consistent. As noted before, MAD Lions can be one of the top-three teams in the league, but they are also more than capable of losing to anyone.
They have seemingly improved a bit in that department, but with the style of play MAD Lions’ bottom lane is using, the day will come when MAD Lions will lose against a team they shouldn’t have.
I have no reason to back either side for this match, MAD Lions should come out ahead more times than not, but their overly-aggressive playstyle could serve as a double-edged sword, giving SK Gaming windows of opportunity to keep it close until they eventually fall apart with questionable late-game decision making and lose.
Fnatic vs Astralis
Friday, July 16 – 21:00 CEST
Astralis are 5-6 on the summer season, which ties them with Team Vitality in sixth place. Fnatic have put together a 8-3 run, which sits them atop of the league, tied with Rogue as the second LEC frontrunners.
Astralis have been playing much better than expected this term and deserve to be in the spot they’re in. Last week, they lost to G2 Esports but quickly bounced back with a win against Misfits Gaming to improve their record across the last two weeks to 3-1. That run includes wins against Team Vitality and Schalke 04, who they beat during LEC 2021 Summer Week 4.
Although you can praise Astralis for their improvement, they’re still a class below Fnatic. Perhaps it would be better to say that Fnatic are a class above Astralis (any many other LEC teams). I still view Astralis as a punch-up underdog and a solid pickup when faced with one of LEC top teams, but I wouldn’t be as confident in them against Rogue nor Fnatic.
Fnatic are priced as 1.340 (Pinnacle) favourites, but I would argue that they should be an even larger favourite for this match. Our love for Fnatic for this match mainly has to do with their individual talent, excellent teamfighting and a very organised approach to their games.
Astralis, on the other side, seem to rely too much on their opponents making mistakes, which has earned them a couple of undeserved wins of late. Most notably, Astralis defeated Schalke 04 in a match that shouldn’t be winnable from the position they were in.
The only bet I like for this match is over 28.5 kills. Both teams average fairly high KD, with Astralis averaging 1.78 KD last week, while and Fnatic put together 1.20. In their last four, Fnatic gave up 47 deaths and secured 65 kills, while Astralis have up 47 deaths and 49 kills.
Team Vitality vs G2 Esports
Friday, July 16 – 22:00 CEST
As talked about before, G2 Esports don’t look too sharp. Although they showed some life last week when they took down Astralis and Rogue, I’m not convinced with this team just yet.
It’s easy to see G2 Esports defeat Rogue and think that they’re now “back”, but one result doesn’t mean much, especially against a team that G2 Esports historically do well agianst. Based on the performance numbers over the season, this should be a 50/50 match, yet the bookmakers have G2 priced as 1.529 (Pinnacle) favourites.
Even if we compare G2 and Vitality’s numbers from last week, these two teams are very close in all metrics. G2 were slightly more efficient in the early-game (55.5 EGR) than Vitality (50.1 EGR), but they were the worst-rated mid-late-game team (-55.5 MLR), below Team Vitality (50.1 MLR), who ended last week as the second-worst mid-late game team.
The betting odds are way off from what the numbers would suggest. An additional bet that appeals to me is under 26.5 kills. Based on what we have seen from these two teams, the line should be much closer to 24 kills.
Note that bet365 offers 1.83 on under 28.5 kills.
Betting Odds are correct as of Friday, July 16, at 14:30 CEST
