Betting-previews.com returns with League of Legends betting coverage for the second day of LoL European Championship (LEC) 2021 Summer Week 6 bouts, where we take a look at five games featuring top European LoL teams.
LEC Summer Week 6 – Day 2
When: Saturday, July 17 – 17:00 – 21:00 CEST
Number of Games: 5
The final round of LEC 2021 Summer Week 6 is here, and it will culminate with the European League of Legends “El Classico” between G2 Esports and Fnatic. There are four exciting games leading into the matchup between the two arch-rivals, but the spotlight will definitely be on the final match, scheduled at 21:00 CEST.
SK Gaming vs Excel Esports
Saturday, July 17 – 17:00 CEST
SK Gaming stunned MAD Lions yesterday to secure their third win of the summer season. Erik “Treatz” Wessén has had an excellent performance in the jungle on Mundo, using his early two kills to snowball his lead and ended the game with 6/1/2.
MAD Lions showed some resistance but were unable to stop SK’s snowball and eventually lost with 6-10 in kills and a 6.6k gold deficit. SK Gaming played well on the day, but it was primarily MAD Lions giving up too much around the map to keep themselves in the race.
Excel Esports faced Misfits Gaming and looked very solid – for the most part. It was a very messy game with eight gold lead changes. Misfits held a slight lead early on and expanded the gap to nearly 2k in the mid-game.
Excel came back at swinging at the 30-minute mark, winning a crucial teamfight and took Baron, which set them up for success. However, they were unable to match Misfits’ poke composition and made a few errors in execution, eventually costing them a sure win.
Excel have been playing well since the new additions and are definitely outperforming everyone’s expectations, but I see way too many fundamental errors for me to believe that they’ll do well against stronger LEC teams.
You could definitely make a case for Excel here, but their poor execution leaves me sceptical about this team’s long-term success. They have been playing better than SK Gaming on the season, but the latter have more experienced players, and I sense that it’s exactly the lack of experience that leads to Excel’s poor mid-late game execution.
The betting odds on this match seem fair, and I see no value in backing either side. Excel could win, but they’re just as likely to repeat their blunder from yesterday.
Schalke 04 vs Misfits Gaming
Saturday, July 17 – 18:00 CEST
There seems to be a fairly large gap between the top and bottom teams in the LEC, and it shows if we compare metrics of Misfits Gaming to that of Schalke 04, as one of the top-six teams and a clear bottom-four team, respectively.
Misfits enter this match off a somewhat “stole” victory from Excel, and while the game stats show one picture, Misfits Gaming did deserve to win that game, as they were much more efficient with their decision making in the later stages of the game.
It was mostly Excel blundering their chances, but you have to give a team some props for knowing where and when to strike to overcome massive gold deficits.
Schalke 04 got stomped into the dirt by Rogue yesterday, which doesn’t surprise me. S04 are clearly one of the weakest teams in the league and were faced with the current favourites to win the title. There isn’t much to analyse from that game – Rogue were the better team.
There’s a long list of things that prevent S04 from succeeding, but one is definitely their lack of attention to drakes. The German side have by far the lowest drake control (28.3%) in the league and an abysmal 17% first-drake rate, whereas Misfits boast a 67% first drake rate and 62% drake control rate.
Claiming drakes is obviously not the game’s main goal, but mentioning it is just a way for me to lead you into one of the betting picks that I like for this match. Misfits were a bit unconvincing with their decision making against Excel, which makes it hard to back them at 1.44 (Pinnacle), especially against Schalke 04, who can be fairly resilient against some stronger sides.
Instead, I like Misfits Gaming to secure the first drake at 1.613, which is definitely a bit too high given how far apart these two LEC sides are in their drake control. Two big factors in securing drakes are junglers and bottom lane duo, and you don’t need to look far to realise that Misfits Gaming’s jungle-bottom players are significantly better than S04’s.
Team Vitality vs MAD Lions
Saturday, July 17 – 19:00 CEST
Team Vitality lost to G2 Esports yesterday, but the game was actually very competitive. Vitality had a terrible start which allowed G2 to snowball their lead, but there were definitely opportunities for the Bees to take the game away from G2, yet they came out short.
It was a solid performance from Vitality, who were somewhat unlucky not to upset the eight-time LEC champions.
In yesterday’s betting preview for the match between MAD Lions and SK Gaming I wrote, “…with the style of play MAD Lions’ bottom lane is using, the day will come when MAD Lions will lose against a team they shouldn’t have…” and guess what happened.
SK Gaming secured two early kills in the bottom lane (shocker) and took the reins of the match in their own hands to secure a win. MAD Lions did their best to claw their way back into the game, but their team composition prevented them from seeing much success while fighting from behind.
It was a terrible performance from MAD Lions, who continue to play overly aggressive even though they continuously get punished for it. This type of volatile playstyle will result in a few upset wins, but it won’t allow MAD Lions to achieve much success in the long run.
Based on what we have seen from these two teams, I can’t understand why Vitality are priced as the underdogs (2.60 at Pinnacle). Although they are – like MAD Lions – a team that can shoot themselves in the foot, but that problem is far more noticeable in MAD Lions.
I’m not a big Vitality believer namely due to their tendency to flip games early, but the odds are just off. Don’t bet on Vitality at under 2.50.
Rogue vs Astralis
Saturday, July 17 – 20:00 CEST
Astralis have proven to be a very resilient team this term, but this is still one of the bottom-four teams in the league. They’re currently at 5-7 on the LEC 2021 Summer, which is good for a tied-sixth with Team Vitality, who should overtake them in the next couple of weeks.
Astralis lost to Fnatic yesterday in quite a shocking fashion. Perhaps shocking isn’t the right word since Fnatic were expected to win, but it was a pure signal of just how strong Fnatic are currently.
Of course, Rogue are stylistically a completely different team than Fnatic in the sense that they won’t chase kills as much as the boys in orange do. However, they are still a class above Astralis and should see the same success today.
Rogue are generally the team I would trust the most to avoid blundering their games and defeat weaker sides. That is mainly because Rogue rarely make mistakes and tend to lose only against teams that are better than them on the day – the way it should be.
Rogue should smash here, but they tend to give up towers, which makes a bet on over 12.5 Turrets (2.670 Pinnacle) an appealing one, especially considering how efficient Astralis are in dragging out their games. If we look at Rogue’s last three outings, their games saw 13 (vs Misfits), nine (vs G2), and 13 (vs Schalke 04) fall, whereas Astralis games ended in 13 (vs G2), 17 (vs Misfits), and nine (vs Fnatic) get destroyed.
Across the entire LEC 2021 Summer season, Rogue averaged 7.5 turrets killed and 4.7 lost, while Astralis average 4.8 turrets killed and 7.8 lost.
G2 Esports vs Fnatic
Saturday, July 17 – 21:00 CEST
G2 Esports enter this match as 1.900 (Pinnacle) favourites, while Fnatic are priced as 1.917 (Pinnacle) underdogs.
As noted before, G2 Esports aren’t playing nearly as well as they should have, and while they have managed to break their four-game losing streak, they’re not quite there yet.
While I wouldn’t like to bash on G2, since they have shown some life, there is no reasonable explanation why they should be priced as favourites. They might have done well against Fnatic over the years, but most of their wins against Fnatic came during the “G2 Era” when they were the undisputed best European LoL team.
Fnatic are by no means a perfect team, but anyone who has been watching their games can agree that they’re one of the best teams not only in the LEC, but in the West. Their numbers compared to LEC Spring are through the roof, and it doesn’t take a genius to see just how much better Fnatic look on the Summoner’s Rift.
G2 Esports have been improving, and I know that G2 are still “G2”, but it’s very easy to overreact to their success over the last few years and forget that they’re no longer the best team in the league. Top-three, maybe, but they definitely aren’t better than Fnatic, who are playing the best league we have seen since the departure of Rasmus “Caps” Borregaard.
Betting Odds are correct as of Saturday, July 17 at 15:20 CEST
